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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 2/28/21 by DogsUp; 80292 views.

From: DogsUp


1 Known Agenda 11-1   94   
2 Like the King 52-1 86
863 Brooklyn Strong 41-1 94
4 Keepmeinmind 47-1 92
5 Sainthood 37-1 84
6 O Besos 39-1 96
7 Mandaloun 29-1 98
8 Medina Spirit 12-1 99
9 Hot Rod Charlie 6-1 99
10 Midnight Bourbon 13-1 96
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In reply toRe: msg 423

From: DogsUp


More about Beyer above later.


From: Oldbettowin


Sorry, I didn’t mean you had to list them.  I figured you would know that knew it was half the field :)


From: DogsUp


I wanted to elaborate:

The top Beyer 100 (9 panel PP)  for this Derby didn't have enough speed rating # nor a par time for the anticipated Derby at a mile an eighth pole come the running of the Derby. The 100 B was 17th in Derby beaten by and winner of horse running 2nd that day of the 100 mark. Santa Anita Derby.

About Beyers in general:

Horses coming from say Oaklawn - weather surface conditions, PID + Turfway plastic, GP West dull numbers would be "surface challenged".

Run Happy whose banner ads we proudly hail and now wave at race tracks won his first G1 at Spa at 7 fl. Coming from PID his Beyer was not the best of a spreadsheet, his actual time was very good...And good horses from PID typically move up in better times off excellent times there.

Track conditions do affect the rating. That comes to play in the single raw stand-alone Numbah. 

  • Edited August 2, 2021 1:25 pm  by  DogsUp

From: ChiefsCrown


The other free square might be Silver State on Saturday. He seems to be running "lights out" as well.

Tough money making race to bet. Might have to hope and squeeze in Informative as a long shot ala Lexitonian.


From: DogsUp


If races before or after a free square (pk 3/4/5) look like 5 to 7 runners could win and the deeper/longer ones 4 through 7 have great shot that's free square time.

In reply toRe: msg 428

From: DogsUp


The Whitney field Saturday would have your horse paying about $800 in a $1 Pick 3 with just say a 4 deep/$10 winner and 6/$14 winner deep in odds and then win price.

I used 4 horses in my pick where Knicks Go got beat LTO.  

One would probably need a minimum of ticket runners to catch the Whitney last leg longer horse. $72


Mile + eighth win @ in Breeders  Cup scholarship 

  • Edited August 2, 2021 8:56 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 429

From: DogsUp


Back to Beyers...3 colts came out of the Louisiana Derby into California Chrome win Derby.

They ran 1-2-3 in La Derby. So their Beyers and PPs would have one perhaps eliminate the 3rd placer. Who came running out of the clouds for 2nd Commanding Curve and Danza for 3rd.

Switching the tables as it is called often happens. But usually the capper thinks and constructs a 'this horse already got beat by these,' scenario.

In reply toRe: msg 430

From: DogsUp


About reading time in PP against the Beyer PP.

Run happy 2015 G1 Saratoga 7fl Kings Bishop.

The day Dogs diaries always factor a runner coming off previous great race got low B numbers because the track record was more than 2 seconds faster.Beyer is also against track record.

Run Happy - race prior to K Bishop

Times: 22.02 44.18 1:08.57 Final Time: 1:15.03
Split Times: (22:16) (24:39) (6:46)
Run-Up: 34 feet
Winner: Runhappy, Bay Colt, by Super Saver out of Bella Jolie, by Broken Vow. Foaled Mar 04, 2012 in Kentucky.
Breeder: Wayne Lyster, Gray Lyster & Bryan Lyster
Owner: James McIngvale
Trainer: Borell, Maria
Claiming Prices: $40k

Purse: $32K

Breeding is exceptional..always liked Maria's Mon.


The race was on Travers Day.

American P was beat by Keen Ice.

Races in between Kings Bishop and Travers were 7fl older and mile quarter turf. Both favorites won. As they both did the year before same races Travers Day. The pick 4 price still churns my gut. Left out Run Happy;7 deep in the betting. $2 = $9500.

  • Edited August 3, 2021 3:43 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 431

From: DogsUp


BEYERS PPs include the track variant. Posted next to B is the speed rating and the track v.

Sample. 92 B 89 SR 26 TV

The TV accounts for times of races at that distance that day (just dirt or turf exclusive)

Bourbonic is highweight at 122 spots 4 lbs others 118.

Colt needs a race where 6fl is about 1:13 and mile over 1:37 or +. Then needs front running field at the mile to throw anchor.

13th in Ky Derby...I toss 6..makes him 2nd from last on ticket. 2021 19 colt field..

Works were soft breezes to WV D.

If surface is dry polenta and no sauce ..aqua to pump it up...colt is likely to de ja vue back to the good old days of running 13s to 15s on slow earth