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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started 2/28/21 by DogsUp; 72138 views.

From: Oldbettowin


Sorry, I didn’t mean you had to list them.  I figured you would know that knew it was half the field :)


From: DogsUp


I wanted to elaborate:

The top Beyer 100 (9 panel PP)  for this Derby didn't have enough speed rating # nor a par time for the anticipated Derby at a mile an eighth pole come the running of the Derby. The 100 B was 17th in Derby beaten by and winner of horse running 2nd that day of the 100 mark. Santa Anita Derby.

About Beyers in general:

Horses coming from say Oaklawn - weather surface conditions, PID + Turfway plastic, GP West dull numbers would be "surface challenged".

Run Happy whose banner ads we proudly hail and now wave at race tracks won his first G1 at Spa at 7 fl. Coming from PID his Beyer was not the best of a spreadsheet, his actual time was very good...And good horses from PID typically move up in better times off excellent times there.

Track conditions do affect the rating. That comes to play in the single raw stand-alone Numbah. 

  • Edited August 2, 2021 1:25 pm  by  DogsUp

From: ChiefsCrown


The other free square might be Silver State on Saturday. He seems to be running "lights out" as well.

Tough money making race to bet. Might have to hope and squeeze in Informative as a long shot ala Lexitonian.


From: DogsUp


If races before or after a free square (pk 3/4/5) look like 5 to 7 runners could win and the deeper/longer ones 4 through 7 have great shot that's free square time.

In reply toRe: msg 428

From: DogsUp


The Whitney field Saturday would have your horse paying about $800 in a $1 Pick 3 with just say a 4 deep/$10 winner and 6/$14 winner deep in odds and then win price.

I used 4 horses in my pick where Knicks Go got beat LTO.  

One would probably need a minimum of ticket runners to catch the Whitney last leg longer horse. $72


Mile + eighth win @ in Breeders  Cup scholarship 

  • Edited August 2, 2021 8:56 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 429

From: DogsUp


Back to Beyers...3 colts came out of the Louisiana Derby into California Chrome win Derby.

They ran 1-2-3 in La Derby. So their Beyers and PPs would have one perhaps eliminate the 3rd placer. Who came running out of the clouds for 2nd Commanding Curve and Danza for 3rd.

Switching the tables as it is called often happens. But usually the capper thinks and constructs a 'this horse already got beat by these,' scenario.

In reply toRe: msg 430

From: DogsUp


About reading time in PP against the Beyer PP.

Run happy 2015 G1 Saratoga 7fl Kings Bishop.

The day Dogs diaries always factor a runner coming off previous great race got low B numbers because the track record was more than 2 seconds faster.Beyer is also against track record.

Run Happy - race prior to K Bishop

Times: 22.02 44.18 1:08.57 Final Time: 1:15.03
Split Times: (22:16) (24:39) (6:46)
Run-Up: 34 feet
Winner: Runhappy, Bay Colt, by Super Saver out of Bella Jolie, by Broken Vow. Foaled Mar 04, 2012 in Kentucky.
Breeder: Wayne Lyster, Gray Lyster & Bryan Lyster
Owner: James McIngvale
Trainer: Borell, Maria
Claiming Prices: $40k

Purse: $32K

Breeding is exceptional..always liked Maria's Mon.


The race was on Travers Day.

American P was beat by Keen Ice.

Races in between Kings Bishop and Travers were 7fl older and mile quarter turf. Both favorites won. As they both did the year before same races Travers Day. The pick 4 price still churns my gut. Left out Run Happy;7 deep in the betting. $2 = $9500.

  • Edited August 3, 2021 3:43 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 431

From: DogsUp


BEYERS PPs include the track variant. Posted next to B is the speed rating and the track v.

Sample. 92 B 89 SR 26 TV

The TV accounts for times of races at that distance that day (just dirt or turf exclusive)

Bourbonic is highweight at 122 spots 4 lbs others 118.

Colt needs a race where 6fl is about 1:13 and mile over 1:37 or +. Then needs front running field at the mile to throw anchor.

13th in Ky Derby...I toss 6..makes him 2nd from last on ticket. 2021 19 colt field..

Works were soft breezes to WV D.

If surface is dry polenta and no sauce ..aqua to pump it up...colt is likely to de ja vue back to the good old days of running 13s to 15s on slow earth

In reply toRe: msg 432

From: DogsUp


Not a peep or peek-a-boo from the parties in a month re: Derby dermatitis dosage causing an old Kentucky Moan amongst the many horse honchos.

In the matter, the court presiding judge wants the 2nd blood sample/ oinment lab test of the accidentally administered externally  to the 2021 Derby winner;  and presented to the Kentucky *state commission.  Not Churchill Downs or the presiding Stewards.

And then the judge has no further involvement.

The Kentucky state horse commission was involved in sheparding (along with Baffert legal) the testing at a different lab. As the 2nd sample testing 'lost it's rider', botched...

Kentucky Commissioners likely will have to stand on first sample. Yet they are partly responsible for the 'loose horse' - no second split sample due process validation.

In reply toRe: msg 433

From: DogsUp


 Medina Spirit worked 58 + for Del Mar Saturday's non graded 1 mile dirt. Open to three-year-old horses. Plans are a maybe for Pennsylvania Derby. And why not?

Media has not mentioned a vowel in over 2 weeks due to the multiple parties involved now  and their Old Kentucky Moaning of blame game re: disqualification and chain of custody drug retesting.

Early on in J school, and now with social media videos; one is taught what happened before the picture/video?

 And after it. The press today is notably quiet on Baffert,  taking a lesson of an incident whereas a reported picture of winning jockey Jose Santo winning Kentucky Derby with Funny Cide. But using a buzzer/electronic device in the race to stimulate the horse.

Come on man. And Santos sued for $48 million and won a satisfied settlement. The KY Commission is ultimately responsible for the testing and split sample retesting results. Botched 2nd/split test, even though they have right to stand on the first test alone; forces them to go against due process for those they are accusing.

  • Edited August 24, 2021 1:08 am  by  DogsUp