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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started 2/28/21 by DogsUp; 49903 views.
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Aug-2

If races before or after a free square (pk 3/4/5) look like 5 to 7 runners could win and the deeper/longer ones 4 through 7 have great shot that's free square time.

In reply toRe: msg 428
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Aug-2

The Whitney field Saturday would have your horse paying about $800 in a $1 Pick 3 with just say a 4 deep/$10 winner and 6/$14 winner deep in odds and then win price.

I used 4 horses in my pick where Knicks Go got beat LTO.  

One would probably need a minimum of ticket runners to catch the Whitney last leg longer horse. $72

3/6/4 

https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SN-SAR-20210807-568680

Mile + eighth win @ in Breeders  Cup scholarship 

  • Edited August 2, 2021 8:56 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 429
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Aug-2

Back to Beyers...3 colts came out of the Louisiana Derby into California Chrome win Derby.

They ran 1-2-3 in La Derby. So their Beyers and PPs would have one perhaps eliminate the 3rd placer. Who came running out of the clouds for 2nd Commanding Curve and Danza for 3rd.

Switching the tables as it is called often happens. But usually the capper thinks and constructs a 'this horse already got beat by these,' scenario.

In reply toRe: msg 430
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Aug-3

About reading time in PP against the Beyer PP.

Run happy 2015 G1 Saratoga 7fl Kings Bishop.

The day Dogs diaries always factor a runner coming off previous great race got low B numbers because the track record was more than 2 seconds faster.Beyer is also against track record. 

https://youtu.be/I7zbIb9AZ64

Run Happy - race prior to K Bishop

Times: 22.02 44.18 1:08.57 Final Time: 1:15.03
Split Times: (22:16) (24:39) (6:46)
Run-Up: 34 feet
Winner: Runhappy, Bay Colt, by Super Saver out of Bella Jolie, by Broken Vow. Foaled Mar 04, 2012 in Kentucky.
Breeder: Wayne Lyster, Gray Lyster & Bryan Lyster
Owner: James McIngvale
Trainer: Borell, Maria
Claiming Prices: $40k

Purse: $32K

Breeding is exceptional..always liked Maria's Mon.

(d)

The race was on Travers Day.

American P was beat by Keen Ice.

Races in between Kings Bishop and Travers were 7fl older and mile quarter turf. Both favorites won. As they both did the year before same races Travers Day. The pick 4 price still churns my gut. Left out Run Happy;7 deep in the betting. $2 = $9500.

  • Edited August 3, 2021 3:43 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 431
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Aug-6

BEYERS PPs include the track variant. Posted next to B is the speed rating and the track v.

Sample. 92 B 89 SR 26 TV

The TV accounts for times of races at that distance that day (just dirt or turf exclusive)

Bourbonic is highweight at 122 spots 4 lbs others 118.

Colt needs a race where 6fl is about 1:13 and mile over 1:37 or +. Then needs front running field at the mile to throw anchor.

13th in Ky Derby...I toss 6..makes him 2nd from last on ticket. 2021 19 colt field..

Works were soft breezes to WV D.

If surface is dry polenta and no sauce ..aqua to pump it up...colt is likely to de ja vue back to the good old days of running 13s to 15s on slow earth

In reply toRe: msg 432
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Aug-15

Not a peep or peek-a-boo from the parties in a month re: Derby dermatitis dosage causing an old Kentucky Moan amongst the many horse honchos.

In the matter, the court presiding judge wants the 2nd blood sample/ oinment lab test of the accidentally administered externally  to the 2021 Derby winner;  and presented to the Kentucky *state commission.  Not Churchill Downs or the presiding Stewards.

And then the judge has no further involvement.

The Kentucky state horse commission was involved in sheparding (along with Baffert legal) the testing at a different lab. As the 2nd sample testing 'lost it's rider', botched...

Kentucky Commissioners likely will have to stand on first sample. Yet they are partly responsible for the 'loose horse' - no second split sample due process validation.

In reply toRe: msg 433
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Aug-24

 Medina Spirit worked 58 + for Del Mar Saturday's non graded 1 mile dirt. Open to three-year-old horses. Plans are a maybe for Pennsylvania Derby. And why not?

Media has not mentioned a vowel in over 2 weeks due to the multiple parties involved now  and their Old Kentucky Moaning of blame game re: disqualification and chain of custody drug retesting.

Early on in J school, and now with social media videos; one is taught what happened before the picture/video?

 And after it. The press today is notably quiet on Baffert,  taking a lesson of an incident whereas a reported picture of winning jockey Jose Santo winning Kentucky Derby with Funny Cide. But using a buzzer/electronic device in the race to stimulate the horse.

Come on man. And Santos sued for $48 million and won a satisfied settlement. The KY Commission is ultimately responsible for the testing and split sample retesting results. Botched 2nd/split test, even though they have right to stand on the first test alone; forces them to go against due process for those they are accusing.

  • Edited August 24, 2021 1:08 am  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 434
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-17

Whether the evidence is mishandled or never submitted, that evidence is then lost and inadmissible to courts for further testing. Once the evidence is contaminated or kept hidden, there is no bringing it back to be used.

My calculation is Baffert attorneys will seek *may have already served notice of intent to sue; from Churchill, NYRA and KY Commission: $500 $500 $500 mil.

LLOOTAH dog bones.

In reply toRe: msg 435
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-18

Breeders Cup folks and Bob Baffert will have a pow wow over his eligibility one way or another. 

If they allow Bob to run; a very high indication they know Bob is going after NYRA and Churchie for due process and liable/reputation and livelihood. 

I say Bob is IN.

  • Edited September 19, 2021 11:26 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 436
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-22

There's no reading between the lines. 

As to NY State law where issues are at hand; not NY State Racing commission Tbred racing rules...

NYRA is in the hot seat. And their second salvo in barring Baffert from racing has created this situation under N Y State law.

And over to Churchill Downs; how does a prominent, experienced plant install video racing slots later to discover illegal,and now, have to deal out to players $140 mil in recovery.

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