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Rebel Stakes March 13 Oaklawn Park   Triple Crown

Started 3/11/21 by Wintertrian; 3194 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/11/21

I dislike playing the big stakes races as the odds are not great and the horses are so close in abilities.  I'll just lay out some thoughts here if it helps anybody.  And maybe you can help me. 

I see Keepmeinmind has been off 105 days but his trainer passed up a couple shorter races because the horse needs longer than a mile.  It's a Diodoro horse using his best combo rider.    This horse seems like a Solomini, Sonneteer, or Optimizer to me.   Runs 2nd. 

I have longshot Tiwighlight Blue coming in 4th and is the only horse who has figs on slop. Joe Sharp really should have left Arrieta on this horse.  That is a super good jockey for OP, I remember when Santana was like thisl, back before when he was only an "oaklawn jockey
.   I love Francisco Arrieta.   

That's as far as I've gotten.  I need to see just how much rain we will have on Fri night and Sat.


No famliarity w/ Baffert's Hosier.   That pedigree PON/Empire Maker/Henny Hughes is pretty good on mud I think.  Working bullets at SA----looks like one of his speedsters like Roadster....just won his maiden, gets Garcia, who rides at OP and has won 2 Rebel Stakes with Baffert. 
 
Baffert's other horse, Concert Tour has never run a route and nothing on slop, yet is the favorite due to speed. I'm kind of hoping he wins because he's one I can cross out to win the KY Derby.   (It's always nice to be given a few free "tosses".   Ditto, Keepmeinmind and Caddo River in the Derby. )     

Not real famiiliar with Asmussen's Super Stock, because he doesn't run at Oaklawn.  Hasn't won at 1-1/16th 2x, maybe 3rd is a charm.  Talamo is doing a bit better than he was earlier in the meet.  I like Asmussens other horse Big Lake better, who has 2 wins at 1-1/16th. 

what this race is lacking:   2 jockeys, Arrieta who is killer good at OP all meet now, and Jon Court, who has won 2 Rebel Stakes.   What else it is lacking are horses who have won on mud, and 50% of the field is moving up in class. Only 2 horses in this field have ever run at Oaklawn. 
 

I have too many personal biases to bet this race.   My hunch is that an oaklawn jockey will win this (garcia, talamo, santana, geroux or cohen) but that's over 62% of the field, so not much help  LOL  

  

 

In reply toRe: msg 1
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/11/21

Courtesy of "Keith":  Rank Jockey Name Starts 1st 2nd 3rd Total $ Win % Top 3
1 Ricardo Santana, Jr. 121 24 18 20 $1,477,525 20% 62 51%
2 Francisco Arrieta 92 19 15 14 $920,723 21% 48 52%
3 Florent Geroux 69 18 7 7 $1,070,180 26% 32 46%
4David Cabrera 144 16 21 21 $977,896 11% 58 40%
4 Ramon A. Vazquez 91 16 17 16 $660,774 18% 49 54%
6 David Cohen 99 13 14 10 $561,356 13% 37 37%
7 Walter De La Cruz 70 8 2 4 $215,883 11% 14 20%
8 Martin Garcia 44 7 9 6 $618,786 16% 22 50%
9 Jon Kenton Court 37 6 1 1 $508,891 16% 8 22%

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/13/21

I like Geroux win % 26

Here are the weights, they favor Baffert's Horse

Caddo River  122
gethernumber 119
Big Lake 117,
Keepmeinmind  119,
Super Stock  117,
Hozier 117,
Twilight blue  119, 
Concert Tour 117
In reply toRe: msg 3
TexSquared

From: TexSquared

3/13/21

How many times did Rated R Superstar get whipped in the stretch in the Essex Stakes on the Rebel undercard?  I counted about 30...

I thought Espinoza's ride on Kafwain in the Louisiana Derby years ago was bad (20 hits?) This was much worse.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/13/21

I wanted to smack him. he has very fast hands and i could think of a sport he should try.

30 might be light I don't know, gruesome.

$10,000 fine , oh wrong country.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

3/13/21

Looks like the track is playing fast, no need for mud handicapping......I like Keepmeinmind and Get Her Number, but I truly think any horse in this race has a chance.  Concert Tour can take his speed wire to wire, but I have a feeling he'll stay just off the pace, and Caddo may contest Get Her Number for the lead.  I expect a fast pace, and it just may last.  My longshot will be Big Lake, especially for the exotics.

I don't have the same certainty as you, Winter, regarding who might make noise in the Derby.  I think the winner here could certainly contend.  I have no idea how good Baffert's colt(s) are, but Concert Tour may be quite good.  His other horse seems like the weakest in the field, but he's here, so BB must have some sense he could be part of the race.

Very intriguing, the most contentious prep to date, a great prelude to the Ark Derby.....

In reply toRe: msg 6
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

3/13/21

Interesting to note that Miller's Get Her Number outworked last race's winner, CZ, head to head on 3/2.....I think he's an overlay to consider in the Rebel.

TexSquared

From: TexSquared

3/13/21

What Mike Smith did in Saudi Arabia last year was nothing compared to what this guy did today.  

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

3/13/21

What kind of a ride did Geroux bring to Caddo?  A monster hold down the backstretch, just let the colt run!  And then in the stretch, came out badly against Big Lake, knocked him and subsequently Get Her Number off stride, just as they were both getting going.....terrible ride.

Big Lake was most impressive, showed grit after the foul.....ran on, almost grabbed 2nd.  He may have a future in the Ark Derby

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

3/13/21

Joel looked like a show-up hit man jockey, collect $60K for the smooth ride; racing against bug boys looking for their maiden win.

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