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Rebel Stakes March 13 Oaklawn Park   Triple Crown

Started 3/11/21 by Wintertrian; 3372 views.
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G


I think it's possible but not very likely.  It appears to me from the replay that once Concert Tour cleared in front of Caddo River, Geroux decided not to try to press Concert Tour & wrangled CR under a stout hold.  The horse was eager to run.  

In review, it would have been to Caddo River's advantage if Geroux had made it tougher for Concert Tour to cross over & steal the front so early from outside.  He may have discouraged that one & the roles in the race would have been reversed.

I certainly cannot say for sure.  Just interpretation.

At this point, it's in the books!  I'm glad Cox is going to give Caddo another chance in The Arkansas Derby.


From: Plus2lbs


Possible an aggressive ride would of worked..

He's not known as Go Go sho..

  • Edited March 23, 2021 6:20 pm  by  Plus2lbs



I liked Caddo River. I’m willing to give him another shot as well.


From: Wintertrian


princeofdoc said...

A great rider can never be a "bad fit" for a horse.....

Technical skill isn't the kind of magic I'm speaking about though.     

Call it Kismet between an animal and a human ----  hard to put your finger on, but it happens and it's very real. 

Animals have preferences

It goes beyond the technical skills of a's something they can't make happen.  There is no doubt animals will perform certain things for some people and not for others.  

I look for that at the track.  I like to see how the jockey communicates w/horse before they start riding.  How do they reassure the horse, or calm them if needed, or how do they communicate their "leadership" to the horse?   The horse is not the leader, just like the dog isn't.  
It is always up to the human to be the leader with pack type animals.   They wait on your cue,  they need to be able to  *read* you.   This is why I like to see same jockey on a horse if the horse has been consistent under them.   Changing the rider isn't always a good idea. 

The fact that Caddo River wasn't reading Geroux, isn't a good sign.  Caddo was not "going for" whatever it was Geroux *wanted* him to do.   That is always a bad sign, horses usually do not win races that way.   The rider/horse has to be AS ONE.  When you see them getting out of synch, fighting each other, too much energy is lost. 

Steve --- I was neglectful though as you noted that perhaps it was Cox who gave instructions.  I had not actually considered that. 

At any rate, there is the possibility that everyone failed the horse this day......OR.......Caddo River just got up on the wrong side of the bed.  They are not machines.   So in the final analysis, we don't know where to place blame. 

BTW, an interesting side note about what the pandemic has done for dogs.....they have had less multiple people contact, so less running up to them to place unwanted touches, etc. Not all dogs like attention from strangers. The good-natured ones will put up with you and so you won't notice it as much.      If you own cats, you already know they don't like being touched in certain places.  Its a trial and error thing you have to figure out......and for you, that can be painful.  LOL  

I think horse-for-the-course is appropriate but so is rider-for-the-horse?  That said, I doubt there will be any kind of rider change on Caddo River and I hope he is in a better frame of mind in the AR Derby.  



From: Wintertrian


SameSteve G said...

Hard Spun was a free runner.  Remember how the ill-fated & tragic GoGo put a choke hold on him in The Belmont in 2007?

That is an excellent example.  Finesse is not data that is presented on the PPs.  

Once they are not operating "as one" it's all over. 

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G


Wintertrian said:

I think horse-for-the-course is appropriate but so is rider-for-the-horse? 

Yes.  However, it's the same thing in regard to pegging it correctly.  As you have implied, there may be another factor which overrides the other.  For example, a clear horse for the course is having a belly ache the day of the race.  

Or, a rider who fits the horse very well simply gets beat in the intangible element of choosing how to carve out a trip.  Unless your lucky enough to be Mike Smith on Zenyatta when she saves your bacon by taking the race into her own mighty hooves.  Or, Winx who got Hugh Bowman a few times when he had goofed!  Ha!

In reply toRe: msg 48

From: Wintertrian


So I had an epiphany 'bout my Caddo River guy.......he's the perfect Preakness horse.   I'm now hoping he doesn't run in the Derby at all.  
He's got the speed and right running style for the Preakness (my least favorite TC race)