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Helium- Mark Casse runnner   Triple Crown

Started 4/4/21 by Wintertrian; 5180 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/4/21

So nobody mentioned Helium in their lists or even talks about him?  He's been in my Top 10 for a while.  He's undeafeated.   Think he would be logical include on  any exotics ticket?  But nobody mentions him at all. 

Because this:  
Thunder Gulch BMS:
Won Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont S.(G1), Travers S.(G1,10F,D), Florida Derby (G1,9F,D), Fountain of Youth S.(G2,8.5F,D), Swaps S.(G2,9F,D), Kentucky Cup Classic(G2,9F,D); 3rd Preakness S.(G1).

Because this:  others who won the Tampa Derby:
Tapwrit - won the Belmont Stakes 2017
Tacitus - ran 3rd in the KY Derby, 2nd in the Belmont 2019
Quip - 2nd in AR Derby 2018, 2nd in Stephen Foster 2019 
Destin - 6th in KY Derby; 2nd in the Belmont Stakes
Carpe Diem - won Bluegrass 2015; was 3rd Favorite in betting to do well in KY Derby  (but ran 10th)
Verazzano - won the Pegasus Stakes 2013; was 4th betting choice in KY Derby 2013 but ran 14th 
Musket Man - 3rd in the KY Derby 2009; 3rd in the Preakness 2009; and 2nd.3rd in about 5-6 different G2/G3 stakes after that. 
Street Sense -  won the Ky Derby, 2nd in Preakness, won the Travers, won the Jim Dandy


Just think Helium deserves to be part of the conversation, and Tampa Derby as well.   

Don't forget......I'm a longshot player.  My job is to find these, Mr. Big News, etc.  (yes, I have 3 more but not ready to talk about them yet) 

Ya'lls job is to put holes in my arguments.  :) 



The big money is in finding the 4th/5th horse for the superfecta/super high five payouts.  :) 

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

4/5/21

Hole #1.....as per your argument against Brooklyn Strong, the working up to a race in lieu of actually racing does not prepare runners adequately.  Helium's race in TB Derby was after nearly 5 months on the shelf, and now another 2 months of not racing is a questionable strategy to prepare a colt to win on the first Saturday in May.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

4/5/21

It's to early for one to tip there hand this early don't you think !

The Silent Majority. :)

TexSquared

From: TexSquared

4/5/21

He's as high as 25-1 in the ante-post markets if you want to get an early bet down on him!

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/kentucky-derby/winner

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/5/21

Very good observation Princeofdoc.   But------he isn't in my WIN category though...... 
He was a "board hit" consideration. That 4th / 5th horse is the one people always miss out on.  Me included!  

I remember Make Music For Me, was a big ouchie! for me......so was Instilled Regard. 


(I did manage to get Mr. Big News though, I remember pleading his case here and he ran 3rd, better than I thought he would).  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/5/21

smartyslew said...

It's to early for one to tip there hand this early don't you think !

The Silent Majority. :)

Just "making conversation" about the ones that aren't on the tip of everyone's tongue.   Longshot player style.  :) 

Gerh

From: Gerh

4/5/21

If the price is right,I might use him underneath.He has never raced beyond 1and 1/16 miles,he has only one race as a 3 year old and will be coming in off an eight week layoff.On the plus side,we know he can fire fresh and Casse has had some recent success in triple crown races.He worked 4f on 3/27 in 49.25 and 5f on 4/3 in1.01.40.Would like to see Casse put some 6 or 7 f works in there.

Gerh

From: Gerh

4/5/21

As for long shots,Rombauer impressed me over the weekend.Good ride by Geroux

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

4/5/21

Because this: Hole #2...Looking up Casse's runners, the last 10 yrs, he missed the derby in '11, '13, '14 & '16. He did finish ITM, 4th w/Classic Empire in '17 and 5th w/Danzig Moon (RIP) in '15. Other than those two he's had a 7th, 7th, 13th and 18th finish. Hope Helium does well, i do think he'll have a shot of blowing up the exotics come May 1. He will be overlooked by the bettors. I'll take a shot and say he's a +30/1.

In reply toRe: msg 8
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/5/21

Gerh said...

As for long shots,Rombauer impressed me over the weekend.Good ride by Geroux

well I'd love to see Rombauer get in and I think he will due to Crowded and Weyburn dropping out.  

As for ride he got from Geroux, it was better than what he gave Caddo River........and heck, I thought he gave a less than good ride on Mandaloun, too.   Geroux can run hot and cold like that. 

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