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Helium- Mark Casse runnner   Triple Crown

Started Apr-4 by Wintertrian; 5002 views.
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-5

Hole #1.....as per your argument against Brooklyn Strong, the working up to a race in lieu of actually racing does not prepare runners adequately.  Helium's race in TB Derby was after nearly 5 months on the shelf, and now another 2 months of not racing is a questionable strategy to prepare a colt to win on the first Saturday in May.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-5

It's to early for one to tip there hand this early don't you think !

The Silent Majority. :)

TexSquared

From: TexSquared

Apr-5

He's as high as 25-1 in the ante-post markets if you want to get an early bet down on him!

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/kentucky-derby/winner

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-5

Very good observation Princeofdoc.   But------he isn't in my WIN category though...... 
He was a "board hit" consideration. That 4th / 5th horse is the one people always miss out on.  Me included!  

I remember Make Music For Me, was a big ouchie! for me......so was Instilled Regard. 


(I did manage to get Mr. Big News though, I remember pleading his case here and he ran 3rd, better than I thought he would).  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-5

smartyslew said...

It's to early for one to tip there hand this early don't you think !

The Silent Majority. :)

Just "making conversation" about the ones that aren't on the tip of everyone's tongue.   Longshot player style.  :) 

Gerh

From: Gerh

Apr-5

If the price is right,I might use him underneath.He has never raced beyond 1and 1/16 miles,he has only one race as a 3 year old and will be coming in off an eight week layoff.On the plus side,we know he can fire fresh and Casse has had some recent success in triple crown races.He worked 4f on 3/27 in 49.25 and 5f on 4/3 in1.01.40.Would like to see Casse put some 6 or 7 f works in there.

Gerh

From: Gerh

Apr-5

As for long shots,Rombauer impressed me over the weekend.Good ride by Geroux

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Apr-5

Because this: Hole #2...Looking up Casse's runners, the last 10 yrs, he missed the derby in '11, '13, '14 & '16. He did finish ITM, 4th w/Classic Empire in '17 and 5th w/Danzig Moon (RIP) in '15. Other than those two he's had a 7th, 7th, 13th and 18th finish. Hope Helium does well, i do think he'll have a shot of blowing up the exotics come May 1. He will be overlooked by the bettors. I'll take a shot and say he's a +30/1.

In reply toRe: msg 8
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-5

Gerh said...

As for long shots,Rombauer impressed me over the weekend.Good ride by Geroux

well I'd love to see Rombauer get in and I think he will due to Crowded and Weyburn dropping out.  

As for ride he got from Geroux, it was better than what he gave Caddo River........and heck, I thought he gave a less than good ride on Mandaloun, too.   Geroux can run hot and cold like that. 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-5

ChiefsCrown said...

Looking up Casse's runners, the last 10 yrs, he missed the derby in '11, '13, '14 & '16. He did finish ITM, 4th w/Classic Empire in '17 and 5th w/Danzig Moon (RIP) in '15. Other than those two he's had a 7th, 7th, 13th and 18th finish. Hope Helium does well, i do think he'll have a shot of blowing up the exotics come May 1. He will be overlooked by the bettors. I'll take a shot and say he's a +30/1.

Casse has been snakebit at OP for a number of years, and at CD, too......but sometimes that just magically disappears.  But point taken.  I  think 30-1 is about right for opening M/L for Helium, but he might even drift up from there.     I'm not going to box EQ and Rock Your World, or EQ and Concert Tour, I can tell you that.   It's once a year!!.  I don't need to be "right" about horses, we all have more than enough laurels to rest on here.   I just want another Country House derby.   :)   Even  EQ is vulnerable........ANY horse is vulnerable in a chaos race like the KY Derby. Probably moreso than any other race that I can think of.   

My job this week is to rewatch the Southwest and Rebel Stakes carefully 

 

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