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Helium- Mark Casse runnner   Triple Crown

Started 4/4/21 by Wintertrian; 5072 views.
ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

4/5/21

Because this: Hole #2...Looking up Casse's runners, the last 10 yrs, he missed the derby in '11, '13, '14 & '16. He did finish ITM, 4th w/Classic Empire in '17 and 5th w/Danzig Moon (RIP) in '15. Other than those two he's had a 7th, 7th, 13th and 18th finish. Hope Helium does well, i do think he'll have a shot of blowing up the exotics come May 1. He will be overlooked by the bettors. I'll take a shot and say he's a +30/1.

In reply toRe: msg 8
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/5/21

Gerh said...

As for long shots,Rombauer impressed me over the weekend.Good ride by Geroux

well I'd love to see Rombauer get in and I think he will due to Crowded and Weyburn dropping out.  

As for ride he got from Geroux, it was better than what he gave Caddo River........and heck, I thought he gave a less than good ride on Mandaloun, too.   Geroux can run hot and cold like that. 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/5/21

ChiefsCrown said...

Looking up Casse's runners, the last 10 yrs, he missed the derby in '11, '13, '14 & '16. He did finish ITM, 4th w/Classic Empire in '17 and 5th w/Danzig Moon (RIP) in '15. Other than those two he's had a 7th, 7th, 13th and 18th finish. Hope Helium does well, i do think he'll have a shot of blowing up the exotics come May 1. He will be overlooked by the bettors. I'll take a shot and say he's a +30/1.

Casse has been snakebit at OP for a number of years, and at CD, too......but sometimes that just magically disappears.  But point taken.  I  think 30-1 is about right for opening M/L for Helium, but he might even drift up from there.     I'm not going to box EQ and Rock Your World, or EQ and Concert Tour, I can tell you that.   It's once a year!!.  I don't need to be "right" about horses, we all have more than enough laurels to rest on here.   I just want another Country House derby.   :)   Even  EQ is vulnerable........ANY horse is vulnerable in a chaos race like the KY Derby. Probably moreso than any other race that I can think of.   

My job this week is to rewatch the Southwest and Rebel Stakes carefully 

 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

4/5/21

Wintertrian said:

My job this week is to rewatch the Southwest and Rebel Stakes carefully 

That's Your back in the saddle Sneaky longshot play and toss !

:)

Msg 1659.13 deleted
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/6/21

ChiefsCrown said...

Because this: Hole #2...Looking up Casse's runners, the last 10 yrs, he missed the derby in '11, '13, '14 & '16. He did finish ITM, 4th w/Classic Empire in '17 and 5th w/Danzig Moon (RIP) in '15. Other than those two he's had a 7th, 7th, 13th and 18th finish. Hope Helium does well, i do think he'll have a shot of blowing up the exotics come May 1. He will be overlooked by the bettors. I'll take a shot and say he's a +30/1.

Casse has Soup and Sandwich besides his Helium guy.  I like both of them, actually. 

In this moment I have to think that one of the Casse horses has to be a consideration to hit the ticket when all is said and done.  I think this one ran a better race than the FL Derby winner, but not taking anything away from the winner, Known Agenda, who has killer stamina sort of like Rombauer has, if you look at their sire side DP. 

There's a number of things that have to happen first, see if horses on the bubble make the gate, see if the track is going to come up muddy which will give some advantage to some of the horses on the list, etc.    Another one I really like for instance is OBesos.  He's pretty far down on the bubble though but we don't know what the attrition is going to be yet for those that have secured a gate spot. 

Gerh

From: Gerh

4/6/21

Looks like Leparoux will ride him in the derby per Paulick Report

In reply toRe: msg 8
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/6/21

Gerh said...

s for long shots,Rombauer impressed me over the weekend.Good ride by Geroux

I have a feeling he is better for the belmont.  Was looking at timeform stuff and his last furlong isn't fast enough to win I don't think? He can take his time in the BEL and run em down because he has the lungs to do so. Of course so do many others, I have a feeling that is going to be the most exciting race of the TC series this year. 

This is why I hope O Besos gets in.  I think he ran the fastest adj. last furlong of any horse besides Known Agenda so far.....

In reply toRe: msg 15
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/6/21

Thanks.

Gerh said...

Leparoux will ride him in the derby per Paulick Report

I don't know much about Lep to be honest.  What's the general 411 on him? 

Most people put a little more faith in jockey than I do........I think you gotta have "have horse under you" to begin with, as JV found out with Medina Spirit......he just couldn't get the horse to accelerate.  Horse didn't have it. 

Gerh

From: Gerh

4/6/21

For what it’s worth,I think Leparoux fits him pretty well.

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