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Triple Crown Series   Triple Crown

Started 4/18/21 by smartyslew; 25926 views.

From: smartyslew


I read the race charts first, write down the tidbits, bumped wide on turn, etc watch the replays looking for them (tidbits)

Off the race chart I  write down the splits and note small adjustments, the last few years I compare the Raw time

with  bris ep numbers and late pace numbers , supposedly the numbers include track variants, class, g1,g2, and the

distance, wide trips, bumping, blocked etc. the fastest raw time doesn't always have the best speed number.

Thats the  last prep race  only.  I use those numbers for my 1/8 pole chart., i do after the draw 

the last few years I compare all speed figures.  if you look at the late pace raw numbers

I put on here I think they noticed what you did, he has the highest late speed  number in the field,  112

Since Dr Roman Retired I started using Bris numbers  recaps for Early, EP, and late pace numbers against the Raw Time.

Anybody like  another sight better for that ?


From: Wintertrian


You are smart to use your eyes, not paper data.  


princeofdoc said...

Known Agenda's race in the Sam Davis, coming in 5th.  Watch the race, see just how full of run he was.  Not a surprise how well he ran next out.  Not sure how I feel about his chances in the Derby, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ran well

That's the luck part.  Field of 20, most look to be mid-pack runners this year, not a whole lot of upfront speed demons left, so that means traffic.  Any horse can run into a wall of horses and get blocked, even if they are the best horse in the race.  

I usually stick with the "quality" speed, and trackers, and sometimes a closer to wipe up in case everyone tires in the stretch.   Midpack runners give me *worries* in a field this large but will put 2 on my ticket. 

In reply toRe: msg 14

From: smartyslew


9 top closing 3f time for 9 f preps,   and 3 3/16 f time for 9.3/16 preps
Bris   Raw time  with the  bris number LP number last prep
 last 3 f time, La Derby last 3 3/16 f, Ruby last 2.5 f,
------------------Raw Time --------Bris late pace number
Essential Quality     36.32                    106
Highly Motivated    36.43                     105
Known Agenda        36.66                    112
Hidden Stash         37.47                       94
Soup And Sandwich  37.71                   101
Like The King        37.87 aw                   95
Bourbonic             37.89                       109 wood
O besos                  43.21            9 3/16 f          96
Midnight Bourbon 44.01          9 3/16 f             95
In reply toRe: msg 16

From: smartyslew


Remember preps Like The Louisiana Derby with the 9 3/16 distance is still a Grade 2 event .

I suggest use your own judgment if you think the race is on par with the grade one preps

and the numbers speed figures , some speed figures are adjusted for that.


From: ChiefsCrown


I think with all the speed this race has entered, Essential Quality E/P4 and Known Agenda P3 are mostly must use horses. Brisnet is my go to pp source. Too much info there to digest.

In reply toRe: msg 18

From: smartyslew


Looks like Baffert gets special treatment again.

Hozier was Taken off the Derby Board a few days ago at the Official site

and we had a few defections and King Fury was moved up to number 21 .

Today Hozier was back on listed #21, one ahead  of King Fury, anybody know why?

Get on it Kenny McPeek..


From: DogsUp


the tiebreaker to get into the Kentucky Derby will be earnings in non-restricted stakes races, whether or not they are graded. In the event of a tie, those horses will divide equally the points they would have received jointly had one beaten the other. 

  • Edited April 21, 2021 5:07 pm  by  DogsUp

From: smartyslew


yes we Know, when he was 25th he took him off the list. Medina Spirit must not be that good

to put a last place (6th) Ark horse, others with more money earnings can jump in and bump him off

and play his game,  apparently he didn't think he would get in they have until Tuesday to do it. plus 2 that are in may not go.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G


Not to mention the 38% chance of something else happening before the Derby.   Haha...

I keep some stuff to myself.  :)


From: smartyslew


grinningsee_no_evil I Think that would be a good idea :)  Haha