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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 168747 views.
Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

5/8/22

Lol...oh so close..

Was nice seeing Twinspires on NBC.

  • Edited May 8, 2022 12:59 pm  by  Plus2lbs
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

5/8/22

I'm not ashamed to admit, I could have handicapped that race for a solid week, no time off, and would not have slotted Rich Strike for the win.

I ain't that good.

TexSquared

From: TexSquared

5/8/22

Yeah, it's kinda hard to consider betting on the also-eligible; he wasn't good enough to be in the top 20, AND you know he's getting post 20.   I mean, the ONLY way you might have considered it IMHO is if the AE was a former Baffert who didn't have enough points because he didn't collect points under Bob but got all his points on his final prep under Yakteen or whoever.  Like if Taiba finished 3rd in the SA Derby.  That never was an issue but I thought about it early on because of how owners were leaving their Derby horses with him till the final prep.

Other than pedigree angles (which I know very little) the one thing he had going for him was he was a dead closer.  And knowing this race was probably going to have a hot pace with way too much speed, it was going to collapse and those closers would pick up the pieces, if not all of the pieces.  Whether that's enough to bet on the 80-1 longest shot on top is another thing altogether.  But I can see why smartyslew threw him in his tri box.  

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

5/8/22

I'll add that I do not take the time anymore, either.  The time to do a thorough job of handicapping the race is no longer something I enjoy doing.

Back in the day, we would take the time to construct one scenario where the pace is reasonable and make tickets accordingly and another where the pace melts down.  So, with Rob's wager, it was not simply luck as he humbly suggests, but a smart play including the closers in scenario B.

It will be interesting to see what kind of money Rich Strike takes in Baltimore, if he checks out okay coming out of the Derby and is good to go.  

Are you going to the Preakness, Tex?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/8/22

What is also is crazy is I caught a segment from the Mig today talking about the Jock who is very

good in a tough community for its class of races and last year he won 2 races less than Rosario the eclipse winning Jock

is back there with these closers and about the time #1 Mo Donegal and Barber Road  Bump each other 10 and 11 wide

this kid is going to the rail and from post 20 on to the rail , you would think it would be the other way around

and he said they had a chance to do that, In his view we are going to hear more about him ,talented and smart.

twoshots

From: twoshots

5/8/22

Maybe that was the end of it for Taiba, but his inexperience was his doom. He looked awful out on the track pre-race, was nervous the whole time. Even once in the gate he was banging around, shortly before they opened.
 

Also Messier faded quickly, leading me to wonder if the Baff-teen horses were negatively affected by not getting lasix when they had gotten it in prior races.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

5/8/22

Me either.  Plus I admit I had gotten so used to the front runners winning every year I hadn’t even really considered that a closer might actually win.  Until watching closers win all afternoon that is, but by that point I was too lazy to start handicapping a totally different race.  Of course if I had known we were about to see an 80-1 shot win I might have given it a try but like you said, I never would have landed on Rich Strike.

I’m left wondering if we’ve entered a brave new world without the Lasix and the butt rubs where an honest horse has an honest chance.  At least I hope he was honest.  Nah.  Baffert will be back.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

5/8/22

Horse Racing Integrity and Safety Alliance goes into effect in July.  They have a new partner to handle the medications/drugs/punishment schedule which will be nationwide.  Uniformity is a big step in the right direction.

I hope, for the sake of the horses, the sport and the people who are involved, including the bettors, that there is a measurable improvement.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/8/22

This cracks me up  !

1 Rich Strike $1,932,500
2 Life Is Good $1,755,000
3 Epicenter $1,480,000
4 Secret Oath $1,130,250
5 Zandon $913,500
6 Olympiad $786,800
7 Cyberknife $785,000
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

5/8/22

Well every horse is “inexperienced” when it comes to that particular experience. I get it, it’s worse for a horse with two lifetime starts. However, I’ve seen a lot of horses freak out on those kinds of days. A lot of it comes down to temperament. Remember Quality Road at BC?

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