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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 190339 views.
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

5/8/22

I'll add that I do not take the time anymore, either.  The time to do a thorough job of handicapping the race is no longer something I enjoy doing.

Back in the day, we would take the time to construct one scenario where the pace is reasonable and make tickets accordingly and another where the pace melts down.  So, with Rob's wager, it was not simply luck as he humbly suggests, but a smart play including the closers in scenario B.

It will be interesting to see what kind of money Rich Strike takes in Baltimore, if he checks out okay coming out of the Derby and is good to go.  

Are you going to the Preakness, Tex?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/8/22

What is also is crazy is I caught a segment from the Mig today talking about the Jock who is very

good in a tough community for its class of races and last year he won 2 races less than Rosario the eclipse winning Jock

is back there with these closers and about the time #1 Mo Donegal and Barber Road  Bump each other 10 and 11 wide

this kid is going to the rail and from post 20 on to the rail , you would think it would be the other way around

and he said they had a chance to do that, In his view we are going to hear more about him ,talented and smart.

twoshots

From: twoshots

5/8/22

Maybe that was the end of it for Taiba, but his inexperience was his doom. He looked awful out on the track pre-race, was nervous the whole time. Even once in the gate he was banging around, shortly before they opened.
 

Also Messier faded quickly, leading me to wonder if the Baff-teen horses were negatively affected by not getting lasix when they had gotten it in prior races.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

5/8/22

Me either.  Plus I admit I had gotten so used to the front runners winning every year I hadn’t even really considered that a closer might actually win.  Until watching closers win all afternoon that is, but by that point I was too lazy to start handicapping a totally different race.  Of course if I had known we were about to see an 80-1 shot win I might have given it a try but like you said, I never would have landed on Rich Strike.

I’m left wondering if we’ve entered a brave new world without the Lasix and the butt rubs where an honest horse has an honest chance.  At least I hope he was honest.  Nah.  Baffert will be back.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

5/8/22

Horse Racing Integrity and Safety Alliance goes into effect in July.  They have a new partner to handle the medications/drugs/punishment schedule which will be nationwide.  Uniformity is a big step in the right direction.

I hope, for the sake of the horses, the sport and the people who are involved, including the bettors, that there is a measurable improvement.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/8/22

This cracks me up  !

1 Rich Strike $1,932,500
2 Life Is Good $1,755,000
3 Epicenter $1,480,000
4 Secret Oath $1,130,250
5 Zandon $913,500
6 Olympiad $786,800
7 Cyberknife $785,000
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RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

5/8/22

Well every horse is “inexperienced” when it comes to that particular experience. I get it, it’s worse for a horse with two lifetime starts. However, I’ve seen a lot of horses freak out on those kinds of days. A lot of it comes down to temperament. Remember Quality Road at BC?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/8/22

A few have asked me How this did in the Derby ! Lasix free

First 6 were Lasix free racing,, 8th,,9th, 

Lasix users were  Tawny Port 7th, Zozos 10th,Taibia 12th, Happy Jack 14th, Charge It 17th,
Cyberknife 18th Place, last 2 Wins were on Lasix,, 19th Pioneer Of Medina. Check out
who the Trainers are. 
-----------------

edit to add Rich Strike  First and Classic Causeway  11th place, Rattle N Roll
I think 13 entrants L free
Lasix Free Contenders. Never used Lasix in any race :
_____
IMO: They Should change the Rules to No Lasix in any race.
Stop these Trainers from racing in Lasix every other race when not
a sanctioned race. We Need Transparency for cappers. One might think
they are masking something and we just don't know.
Somebody Should ask Pletcher and Cox why do they do that
with Some of their crop and not others.
I don't like it when a Horse I really like races in a un sanction  race on lasix
I wonder Why? Is He a bleeder or is something else is going on.
E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 103/ 93 (103
-
Rich Strike   First Place
Epicenter 21a IP 164  Louis Derby  9 3/16   Rosario  L free    2nd Place 
23.67 47.65 11.99  36.16 54.38   102 by   87 90/106 (101
23.67 23.98 24.34 24.17 (3/16 18.22) Last Q 24.31
Zandon 4d  S       114  BG 9f      Prat       Lfree    3rd Place
24.87 49.30  13.75  38.06 50.35   98 by
24.87 24.43  24.45  24.31 12.29 lastQ  24.45  
-
White Abarrio 9e S  112 flor D. 9f, fast in middle  Gaffiolone   L free
24.18 47.66 10.99* 36.55 50.64   96 by    96 110/77 (96
24.18 23.48 23.33 25.56 14.09 Last Q 26.84
---
Mo Donegal 3g  S   112  Wood  9f  I Ortiz     L free  5th
25.07 48.76 12.50 36.03 47.96    96 by
25.07 23.69 23.74 23.53 11.93  Last Q 23.67
--
Tiz The Bomb 3L BP 110  Jeff Ruby AW 9f  Hernandez  L free   9th
23.96 47.78 11.58 35.89 48.60   94 by   86 93/105 (101
23.96 23.82 23.80 24.31 12.71 Last Q 24.87
--
Simplification 16g Is  74   Flor Derby  9f J Ortiz    L free    4th place
23.77 47.25 10.69 36.56 51.09   92 by  100 113/70 (93
23.77 23.48 23.44 25.87 14.53 Last Q 27.47
-
Smile Happy 6d S   70  B
...[Message truncated]
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PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

5/8/22

I am not sure what the insinuation on the lasix is.  I would guess some are inferring running on Lasix is affecting them later?  I would interpret that as more those horse were not running well enough to run in races where lasix is banned and used lasix in lesser races where it is allowed.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/9/22

13 raced without Lasix. 7 used lasix in some races, Why did those 7 trainers use Lasix, are they bleeders ?

You said :

I would interpret that as more those horse were not running well enough to run in races where lasix is banned and used lasix in lesser races where it is allowed.

I suggest what you said is one might think it helps their performance in the lesser races and I suggest maybe they are masking something to give them a boost for their next race a lasix free race with time wears off for detection. I can't sit here and say they are cheating, It makes me wonder maybe they are and why does Cyberknife run with lasix every other race up tp certain race before he finally runs good  in a sanctioned race and runs so crappy in the big dance without lasix. It bothers me when Pletcher gets many of the well bred horses
I really like and races them with Lasix their first  2 races or first race, why not lasix free, Why.

I think  Mo Donegal may have been his only Horse that raced without Lasix, I ask why is that , I don't get it.

Maybe the 13 without Lasix  were up against it and the first 6 finishers from that group were the best horses 

and didn't need help from a vet. We really do not know, But Maybe.......

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