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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 149836 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-8

A few have asked me How this did in the Derby ! Lasix free

First 6 were Lasix free racing,, 8th,,9th, 

Lasix users were  Tawny Port 7th, Zozos 10th,Taibia 12th, Happy Jack 14th, Charge It 17th,
Cyberknife 18th Place, last 2 Wins were on Lasix,, 19th Pioneer Of Medina. Check out
who the Trainers are. 
-----------------

edit to add Rich Strike  First and Classic Causeway  11th place, Rattle N Roll
I think 13 entrants L free
Lasix Free Contenders. Never used Lasix in any race :
_____
IMO: They Should change the Rules to No Lasix in any race.
Stop these Trainers from racing in Lasix every other race when not
a sanctioned race. We Need Transparency for cappers. One might think
they are masking something and we just don't know.
Somebody Should ask Pletcher and Cox why do they do that
with Some of their crop and not others.
I don't like it when a Horse I really like races in a un sanction  race on lasix
I wonder Why? Is He a bleeder or is something else is going on.
E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 103/ 93 (103
-
Rich Strike   First Place
Epicenter 21a IP 164  Louis Derby  9 3/16   Rosario  L free    2nd Place 
23.67 47.65 11.99  36.16 54.38   102 by   87 90/106 (101
23.67 23.98 24.34 24.17 (3/16 18.22) Last Q 24.31
Zandon 4d  S       114  BG 9f      Prat       Lfree    3rd Place
24.87 49.30  13.75  38.06 50.35   98 by
24.87 24.43  24.45  24.31 12.29 lastQ  24.45  
-
White Abarrio 9e S  112 flor D. 9f, fast in middle  Gaffiolone   L free
24.18 47.66 10.99* 36.55 50.64   96 by    96 110/77 (96
24.18 23.48 23.33 25.56 14.09 Last Q 26.84
---
Mo Donegal 3g  S   112  Wood  9f  I Ortiz     L free  5th
25.07 48.76 12.50 36.03 47.96    96 by
25.07 23.69 23.74 23.53 11.93  Last Q 23.67
--
Tiz The Bomb 3L BP 110  Jeff Ruby AW 9f  Hernandez  L free   9th
23.96 47.78 11.58 35.89 48.60   94 by   86 93/105 (101
23.96 23.82 23.80 24.31 12.71 Last Q 24.87
--
Simplification 16g Is  74   Flor Derby  9f J Ortiz    L free    4th place
23.77 47.25 10.69 36.56 51.09   92 by  100 113/70 (93
23.77 23.48 23.44 25.87 14.53 Last Q 27.47
-
Smile Happy 6d S   70  B
...[Message truncated]
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PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

May-8

I am not sure what the insinuation on the lasix is.  I would guess some are inferring running on Lasix is affecting them later?  I would interpret that as more those horse were not running well enough to run in races where lasix is banned and used lasix in lesser races where it is allowed.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-9

13 raced without Lasix. 7 used lasix in some races, Why did those 7 trainers use Lasix, are they bleeders ?

You said :

I would interpret that as more those horse were not running well enough to run in races where lasix is banned and used lasix in lesser races where it is allowed.

I suggest what you said is one might think it helps their performance in the lesser races and I suggest maybe they are masking something to give them a boost for their next race a lasix free race with time wears off for detection. I can't sit here and say they are cheating, It makes me wonder maybe they are and why does Cyberknife run with lasix every other race up tp certain race before he finally runs good  in a sanctioned race and runs so crappy in the big dance without lasix. It bothers me when Pletcher gets many of the well bred horses
I really like and races them with Lasix their first  2 races or first race, why not lasix free, Why.

I think  Mo Donegal may have been his only Horse that raced without Lasix, I ask why is that , I don't get it.

Maybe the 13 without Lasix  were up against it and the first 6 finishers from that group were the best horses 

and didn't need help from a vet. We really do not know, But Maybe.......

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

May-9

Like Steve, I couldn't have picked Rich Strike to win, regardless of time spent handicapping.  I didn't hear a single analyst give him a chance, and no one on this forum either.  I did predict a fast pace, and thought a dead closer could win, and that's why I included Mo in all my tickets.  I really think the jock made the difference, bravely took the rail, and timed it perfectly.  Also, the track looked a little wet right before the race, and perhaps the rail was the best place to be?

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

May-9

I think this race proved that the new gate is fair.

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

May-9

My understanding of the Lasix rule is that they were not allowed to use it as 2yo.  At 3 they are not allowed to use it in stakes races.  I very well could wrong about that.  I see Cyberknife ran on Lasix  Dec 26 2021, so obviously it is not about not using at 2.  That race was in LA, so maybe that states rules are different.  His alternating races were MSW at FG, G3 stakes (lasix not allowed), OC50k (lasix allowed), G1 stakes (lasix not allowed)

On TAPs horses, Mo ran in all stakes at 3 so he could not use lasix at 3.  PoM ran in NJ in his first MSW with Lasix, so perhaps that state is different?  His first race at 3 was an OC50 (lasix allowed) then stakes where lasix was not allowed.  Charge 1st 2 races were msw at 3, lasiz was allowed.  Then G1 race lasix not allowed. 

Look at what trainers did when lasix was allowed everywhere.  When they did not run well in a stakes, they would drop down in an ALW or OC, then if they did well, go back to a stakes, same pattern we see this year, except lasix rules have changed.  A lot of trainers are going to use lasix whenever they can.    I'm seeing trainers doing the same thing they have always done and having to follow local lasix rules.  You're seeing them running in those races to mask something.  If so, then why is the pattern the same pattern pre lasix rules?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-9

I'm against using Lasix because its a Masking agent and its use down grades The crop imo being passed on to the Progeny

does not help the crop. I don't know all of the rules for Lasix either. I would like to see its use Banned

and I know when its used its legal for that race. Why go half way, ban it  for all 2 and 3 yr olds , is the next step

in the process of getting rid of it. There are stories that many use lasix in their works and we need to change that to.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-9

How message 1012 did

the 1/8 pole chart was terrible this year, I think because of the Hot pace.
by far the worst one I ever did. The Winner is usually in the first 7. this year 19th.
--

1/8 pole chart 2022 derby 10f time based from 1/8 pole  fast track only
------
1 Epicenter         2.00.47  -2nd       winning time 2.02.61
2 White Abarrio   2.00.87
3 Messier            2.00.92
4 Taiba               2.01.06
5 Zozos              2.01.42
6 Crown Pride     2.01.48
7 Tiz The Bomb   2.01.50
8 Charge It         2.01.50
9 PioneerOfMED. 2.01.50
10 Mo Donegal    2.01.63  5th
11 Simplification  2.01.82   4th
12 Zandon          2.02. 51  3rd
13 Smile Happy   2.02.60
14 ClassicCause   2.03.10
15 Cyber Knife     2.03.42
16 Tawny Port      2.03.58
17 Barber Road    2.03.78
18 Happy Jack     2.03.85
19 Rich Strike      2.03.95  1st
20 Summer Is Tomorrow  N/a
--
   

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-9

How Message 1015 Did : Last Q 25.39 > and Last 1/8 12.70 > faster
-------

Last Q 25.39 or faster
--
Epicenter 24.31-2ND**, zandon 24.45-3RD**, Mo Donegal 23.67 Souped up track 5th*
Taiba 24.75, Tiz The Bomb 24.87 AW, Smile Happy 25.41* 5 wide 1st turn,3 wide =close to Zandon
Zozos 24.62, Pioneer Of Medina 24.62, Rich Strike 24.49-AW--FIRST****
-- 
Last 1/8 12.70 Faster
--
Epicenter 12.16 well hidden in 9 3/16 race, *2ND
Zandon 12.29 *3RD,  Mo Donegal 11.93 need perfect rail hug again  *5TH
Tiz The Bomb 12.71 Aw if slop must on ticket imo , overlooked Turfer 
Taiba 12.40 will he get dirt in his face, Zozos 12.34 9 3/16 well hidden (post 19
Pioneer Medina 12.21 9 3/16 closed faster than Zandon
---
Florida Derby : Fast early, Fast Middle, part of why late was slow.
fastest prep in the middle for track conditions per Randy Moss, 
for American Tracks ,very fast to 7f.  *Simplification 4th out of this race
-----
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-9

How Message 1018 Did : Who beat or stayed close to the variant in their preps
----- 

How they did with The Variant
----
1 Mo Donegal  +8 only last race, is he improving or souped up track rail trip -5, -3, -1 last  Race big positive Jump  5th
3 Epicenter +3,+3, +1, even, +3 last 5 excellent   2ND
5 Smile Happy +3,even, +7, -1, In good company
6 Messier  -2, +3, +8, +3, +1, -2,
8 Charge It   -3, +4, even,  don't hit gate, break good
9 Tiz The Bomb  AW +5, +5
10 Zandon  +6, even, -3,-4, on the improve going longer Last 2 Good 3RD**
11 Pioneer Of Medina  even, even, -4, +9
12 Taiba  even, even,
13 Simplification  -4, -9,-5, +6,-6  4th
14 Barber Road   -10, -2,even,+1,+3, going in the wrong direction
15 White Abarrio  -2, even, +1, even, +10
16 Cyberknife   -7 without L, +2 L, -10, -4 L, +2,even
17 Classic Causeway  -23 quit,-4,-1,+4, even,
18 Tawny Port  +1, +3,-5, +7,-2
19 Zozos   +2,+2, -2   Bad post
21 Rich Strike  -1,+2,+2, -14  *FIRST* Within 1 or better last 3
--
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