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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 186321 views.



Post mortem look back at prep pace parameters, found this interesting in support of the winner. 4th quarter time in final prep, equalized for ground loss.

Feet Traveled: 4Q-Equ-Time

Mo Donegal 23.24

Rich Strike 23.41

Epicenter 23.74

Tiz the Bomb 23.97

Taiba 24.19

Tawny Port 24.23

Zandon 24.39

Messier 24.42

Zozos 24.55

Smile Happy 24.68

Pioneer of Medina 24.89

Happy Jack 25.08

White Abarrio 25.11

Crown Pride (JPN) 25.27

Charge It 25.46

Simplification 25.59 

Cyberknife 25.63

Summer is Tomorrow 25.98

Barber Road 25.98

Classic Causeway 27.33




4th or 5th quarter?


From: smartyslew


Sweet pick Raes, I thought the field would be more competitive, by far the best in here.

Big challenge next if he goes in the Belmont. Another case of Jumping up before Summer time

for 3 year olds.  The way the breeders are changing, I look  for more late bloomers going forward

this summer and I hope its a new trend and saying that, I could be wrong and it might be a 3 or 4

yearly thing.


From: smartyslew


the 3 from the Florida Derby run differently and the element problems  and 2 of them forwardly placed

in the Derby and Simplification not, Finishing 4th here and Epicenters style with good splits 

Suggest to me the first 4 in the Derby got good rides and or good trips or both. they earned It imo

I like it if a horse can run each split 25.40 or faster when they grow into the 9 furlong splits and or part of growing

only one slow Quarter in a race sometimes is needed because of the pace.. Jenny Rees couldn't figure out how to

do Final Quarter times in 8.5f , even 9f races and others  not mentioning any names when Dr Romans formula works better and final 12.70  1/8 final and 25.40 final Quarters are more accurate in hundreds and not using fifths and 13 Final 1/8 is a joke.
They used those numbers and struggled because they were not good a math and came up with 13 second final 1.8 

and gave up on final q times. and now many use that systemin or 5/16 time or 3/8 time.


From: smartyslew


from Message 1111 How they did in the Peter Pan today

Winner We the People wired the field: won by 10 1/4 lengths

233, :471, 1:111, 1:353, 1:481    (:23.66, :47.24, 1:11.25, 1:35.63, 1:48.27)

23.66, 23.58,24.01, 24.38, 12.64 Last 1/8 , 1.48.27 final, Last Q  24.83


Pars 91 97/89  speed 97  None  Peter Pan G3

Golden Glider P3)  86 97/92 speed 96
run style  E races won  38% EP 42%P 12% S 8%, no EP entered 
Post bias Rail 19%, 1-3 19%, 4-7  14%, 8+ 0.00
Early Pace :
96 Cooke Creek 95 Set Sail 92 We the People 86 Golden Glider 85 Electability 79 State Planning 78 Complete Agenda 70 Western Riv
Late Pace 99 Western River 94 Electability 92 Complete Agenda 92 Golden Glider 89 State Planning 87 Set Sail 71 We the People 50 Cooke Creek
Last  Quarter  25.40> faster : Electability(E5) 8f- 24.98 L, We The People(E) 2 back ,last g1,8.5f- 24.27-L,
Western River (So) 8.5 f,25.00 Lb, , Cook Creek (P4)N/A 2 bad off tracks No L BG last
Only Mdn winner: Set Sail, Complete Agenda, Western River,
Raced in gr stakes: We The People g1 Ark Derby 7th,Golden, Gilder 2 g3, Last g1 BG 4th 96,
Cooke Creek 2 G3  71,86,
Box these 4 or wheel: Set Sail (pedigree play) We The People WON, Golden Glider-2nd, Electability 3rd with Cooke Creek
It was a  Chalky race and was capped without knowing the odds. 50 cent tri paid $22, if you boxed 4 you made
$10 per 50 cent unit cost $12. 

From: Oldbettowin


I must not be good at it either because I just got RS’ final Q in the Jeff Ruby at 24.99.  Of course I didn’t even look at him before the derby so it wouldn’t have mattered.




Dangerous style for the Belmont! If he can set a moderate, fairly uncontested pace, he could easily hit the board!


From: smartyslew


How the Lasix free  Kentucky Derby runners did  along side 
the Lasix used Runners carrying 126 pounds and their Last Q time
2nd thru 9th finishers Keeeland sale, also  15,19,20,
25.40 or faster Last Q historical time 1st,3,4,5,6 met guidelines all ,L free. 
L users Last Q 7th 25.82, 10th 27.68, 12-27.83,14- 27.19,
17-29.37,18- 31.93,19 33.16
1st Rich Strike  24.30
2nd Epicenter  25.64 missed by .24 close to the lead, ran 6f  1.10.68
3rd Zandon   25.39
4th Simplification  25.05
5th Mo Donegal  24.82
6th Barber Road  24.87
7th Tawny Port *L user 25.82
8th Smile Happy  26.66
9th Tiz The Bomb 26.40  turfer
10 Zozos  *L user  27.68
11Classic Causeway 26.95
12 Taiba  *L user 27.83
13 Crown Pride  28.70
14 Happy Jack *L  27.19
15 Messier  28.92
16 White Abarrio  28.06
17 Charge It   *L  29.37,
18 Cyberknife  *L  31.93
19 Pioneer Of Medina *L  33.16
20 Summer Is Tomorrow  35.42 spent fireball

From: Gerh


103 Beyer.If he gets his way on the lead,he could win.


From: smartyslew


Finally a race he didn't get in to trouble, He needs to do that again with that good action displayed in this race.

Will Pratt be on him ?