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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 127963 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-16

5/20/22 Pimlico : Black Eyed Susan : Looks like a Betting Race

---

From the rail out, the field for the Black-Eyed Susan is: 13 entrants
Divine Huntress, 15-1; 
Missy Greer, 20-1;
Miss Yearwood, 20-1; 
Midnight Stroll, 15-1; 
Beguine, 12-1; 
Luna Belle, 9-2; 
Distinctlypossible, 6-1; 
Candy Light, 20-1; 
Interstatedaydream, 6-1; 
Adare Manor, 5-2; 
Radio Days, 12-1; 
Favor, 8-1;  
Morning Matcha, 30-1. 
----
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-17

2022 Preakness 5/21/22 Race 13: by post position
-
Name, Bris Classification, tail female family number
Conduit Classification , Sire/Bms rf =Rasmussen Factor
Nick or Long Nick Sire/Bms line
-
Nick = Preakness winner Sire/Bms Lines
-
1 Simplification EP4  16g (IS)Storm Cat/ Candy Ride rf,
Long Nick: Storm Cat/ Fappiano  Shackleford 2011 2f
-
2 Creative Minister P1 8d (B)  Storm Cat/ Tapit
Long Nick : Nor Dan/ Bold Ruler Louis Quatorze 1996 3m
Real Long Nick: Northern Dancer/ Bold Ruler Summer Squall 1990 3L
-
3 Fenwick E4 1t (IP)  Curlin/ Malibu Moon
Nick: Curlin/Seattle Slew, Exaggerator 2016 3g
Nick: Mr P/ Seattle Slew,  Funny Cide 2003  6d
--
4 Secret Oath (F) S2  9f (BP) Arrogate/ Quiet American
-
5 Early Voting  P/N E8 9b (B) Gun Runner/Tiznow
Long Nick : Mr P / In Reality, Smarty Jones 2004 1x
Long Nick : Fappiano/ In Reality, Real Quiet 1998 4d
conduit Preakness Winner :9b Idle fancy Hill Prince 1950
-
6 Happy Jack S2  3o  (S)  Oxbow/ Tapit rf
----
7 Armagnac E5  A4 (BP) Quality Road/ Lemon Drop Kid
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8 Epicenter EP5  21A (IP) Storm Cat/Candy Ride
Long Nick: Storm Cat/ Fappiano, Shackleford 2011 2f
--
9 Skippylongstocking EP3  10a (BS) Curlin/War Chant
Nick: Smart Strike/ Danzig , Lookin at Lucky 2010 9f
Long Nick :  Smart Strike/ North. Dancer , Curlin 2007 19c
Long Nick: Mr P/ Nor Dancer, Hansel  1991 2w
Conduit Preakness Winner 10a Court Dress Charismatic 1999
---
pianot

From: pianot

May-17

So with this, you suggest this data has Skippy as one to really look at? Has a  nice work recently.

  • Edited May 17, 2022 6:10 pm  by  pianot
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

May-17

I like Adare Manor....

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-17

Nah.  He’s 20-1 :)

pianot

From: pianot

May-17

Never had odds distract  me. I'm sure you agree. Had Larry Snyder on a 50-1 Appaloosa race at Arlington. He got DQd. Ha

  • Edited May 17, 2022 5:58 pm  by  pianot
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-17

Its a Pedigree tool to consider along side performance tools and other pedigree data and not a stand alone

angle in somebodys tool box. Its kinda like a tie breaker to use what Nicks (Marraiges) and females families have

worked before and the way you decipher it.

pianot

From: pianot

May-17

No just was wondering how much weight you put on it. As I've said, appreciate you data.

pianot

From: pianot

May-17

I think this race might have some value. The black eyed susans.

  • Edited May 17, 2022 8:33 pm  by  pianot
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-17

Preakness Entrants listed Tail female family  with Their BMSire any stamina Chefs in Their line
the 2nd Dams Sire line Stamina Chefs if applical and any Stamina Chefs in 5 generations
also listed the Highlighted female families positions within 5 generations and look for
7 or more female families position and the Tail female families is listed by their name
look for more than 6 positions, that means another line amplifies the tail female family.
Of course a very high number is a positive for any tff within 5 generations ,look for RF
or Xfactor Sires and Mares with the high numbers of a female families.
----
Any stamina/soundness influence, regardless of where it falls in the pedigree is a good thing.  The influences...
LDK is Lemon drop Kid 3L
--

Armagnac A4 :BMS LdK 3l, KingmamboCS, 5 Lh, Slew, tf 13c,1x,3l up middle L in last,4th back
15 13c,6 a4,4 3L,2nd Dam Herbager CS, Sire Nijinsky CS, Lasix last race
-------
Creative Minister  8d, :BMS Tapit, Nijinsky CS, UnBridled  L last 2
6 3o,6 8d, 5 8c,
--------
Early Voting P/N 9b ;BMS Tiznow 26, Pia Star P, Herbarger CS sire side  L free
7 17b,7 4m, 6 9b,5 13c, 2nd Dam Big Red &SSide 3rd Dam Chieftan,
--------
Epicenter 21a : Bms Candy Ride 13c, Flow of Arg. Excellence Herbager CS,Vandale (P)
1r 7,21a 6,5 4m, 2nd Dam: Sadlers Wells CS, Ela MAna Mou  P, Busted S,    L free
---
Fenwick 1t,:BMS Malibu Moon 2s,Sire side Nodouble CP   L2,3,4 back
1t 6, 5 19c,5 2s, 5 10a,5 13c
-----
Happy Jack 3o,rf,  : BmS Tapit, Nijinsky CS, Unbridled
12 3o,5 26,3rd Dam Sire Vaguely  Noble CP,  L 1st race of 5
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Secret Oath(F) 9f, rf: BMS Quiet American, Princequillo IS, 23% Fappiano
9 9f,9 16a,7 1r,5 16g, sire side Le Fab P,    L free last 4, L once 4th race
--------
Simplification 16g rf : BMS Candy Ride13c,Flow of Arg. Excellence Herbager CS,Vandale (P
9 12c,7 1r,6 16g,2nd Dams S Herbager CS, L free
------------
Skippylongstocking 10a :BMs War Chant Princequillo IS, L 2,3 back.
13 10a,5 3g,4 23b, 4 19c,
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