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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 126888 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-18

Exaggerator was the only KY Derby place horse who won the Preakness in 28 years.   However, sometimes I play with stats like that though, as the race this year was unusual and not "formful" in the true sense, so some may consider Epicenter the "winner" for use with historical stats, which would mean Zandon would have no chance in the Preakness, but he's not running so it's a moot point.  

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-18

Beaten derby favorites haven’t fared much better in the Preakness.  Over the last 25 years:

1997 Captain Bodgit 2nd in the derby, 3rd in the Preakness

1998 Indian Charlie 3rd in the derby, dnr in the Preakness

1999 Excellent Meeting/General Challenge 5th/11th in the derby, Excellent Meeting pulled up in the Preakness

2001 Point Given 5th in the derby, won the Preakness

2002 Harlan’s Holiday 7th in the derby, 4th in the Preakness

2003 Empire Maker 2nd in the derby, dnr in the Preakness

2005 Bellamy Road 7th in the derby, dnr in the Preakness

2006 Sweetnorthernsaint 7th in the derby, 2nd in the Preakness

2009 Friesan Fire 18th in the derby, 10th in the Preakness

2010 Lookin at Lucky 6th in the derby, won the Preakness

2011 Dialed In 8th in the derby, 4th in the Preakness

2012 Bodemeister 2nd in the derby, 2nd in the Preakness

2019 Improbable 5th in the derby, 6th in the Preakness

2020 Tiz the Law 2nd in the derby, dnr in the Preakness

2021 Essential Quality 4th in the derby, dnr in the Preakness

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-18

Preakness winners that ran in the derby and where they finished last 25 years (11 of 19 won the derby):

Silver Charm 1st

Real Quiet 1st

Charismatic 1st

Point Given 5th

War Emblem 1st

Funny Cide 1st

Smarty Jones 1st

Afleet Alex 3rd

Curlin 3rd

Big Brown 1st

Lookin At Lucky 6th

Shackleford 4th

I’ll Have Another 1st

Oxbow 6th

California Chrome 1st

American Pharoah 1st

Exaggerator 2nd

Justify 1st

War of Will 8th 

 

pianot

From: pianot

May-18

I think Epi might break this pattern.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-19

Thanks  I know Empire Maker and Tiz the Law skipped the Preakness and both finished 2nd in the derby.

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-19

I just love We The People.  

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-19

I think so too.  Absolutely.

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-19

I'm liking Skippy more and more!    sunglasses    And Secret Oath of course.  

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-19

Wow, smarty.  Your data is so fabulous.  Thank you for the food for thought!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-19

thank you, You are Welcome, and good luck !

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