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I found this Interesting about Early Voting, Winning the Withers Stakes by 4 1/2 lengths over Un Ojo on a Muddy Track,
by a slow 9f time in 1.55.90,In Hand 3-4 wide held being clear Comes Back and wins the Wood same distance 9f in 1.47.96 about 40 lengths faster raw time. In the Withers the track variant is 28 (100-28=72) he is given a 68 -4 from the variant geared down 3-4 wide and clear from the field, awarded a 87 Beyer,
in the Wood a very fast track, he gets nipped at the wire by Mo Donegal perfect dream trip by
by a neck, in a very fast 1.47.4, with good splits, they gave a variant - faster than the last 3 year variant they have for use
the -- is the distance variant 100 on a level playing field . Early Voting +8 is a 108 variant ,awarded 96 Beyer, Skippy in the same race
3.5 lengths behind EV 104 to the variant +4, 88Beyer.
In the Withers He was geared down and had room to run faster on the Muddy Track, Meanwhile as Steve Colbert says
Un Ojo 2nd to EV in the Withers races first and Wins The Arkansas Derby and touted by Many because it was a Surprise to many
including Me, IMO later this was a distraction from E V before the Wood.
Off track, Super fast Track He belonged. Here is the results for his 3 graded stakes races. g3-g2 g1 in order.
His Preakness Time 9 3/16 1.54.54, is faster than his off track 9f Withers time 1.55.90 geared down My track. 4 1/2 Length win.
|022||WITHERS STAKES||G3||EARLY VOTING||CHAD C. BROWN||9-b||9 F||UN OJO||GILDED AGE5||1:55.90||MY, 11R, BY 4½ L.|
|2022||WOOD MEMORIAL STAKES||G2||MO DONEGAL||TODD A. PLETCHER||3-g||9 F|
How Message 1136 data did in the Preakness. data for the Win.
Early Voting 12 Positive angles from this list
-Must have run in the Derby. The six that didn't, were Rachel Alexandra, Bernardini and Red Bullet. Cloud Computing,
Swiss SkyDiver(F), RomBauer
Winner Early Voting did not run in The Derby, Fresh horse worked out
Add Early Voting to this list, a recent trend.-----Carrying the RAN sire line is a positive factor. A winnerFenwick, Early Voting WINNER, Secret Oath, Armagnac, Skippylongstocking---
Beyer figure of 103 or higher in at least one of last two starts. 17 of the last 18 Derby winners qualified on this factor. Prairie Bayou was the only Preakness winner of the last 18 that did not qualify on this factor.
none Epicenter 102 just missed. No qualifiers in This Race EV a 96, Now 2 Prairie Bayou & E V,---
Won last start before the Kentucky Derby. : NO 2nd in last
Secret Oath, Epicenter,
Carry War Admiral in the X passing position on the dam side for all colts or on either side for a filly because she gets two X chromosomes
Secret Oath, Creative Minister, Fenwick, Early Voting, Happy Jack. Yes for EV
La Troienne In a passing position not noted above with War Admiral- yes
Simplification, Creative Minister, Fenwick, Early Voting WON, Happy Jack
Carry Princequillo in The X passing PositionsSecret Oath, Fenwick, Early Voting WINNER, ArmagnacSkippylongstocking
-final Q qualifiers 25.39 or faster
Simplification 25.05 Derby, Creative Minister 24.13, 5.97 1/16Secret Oath 25.38 1/8 12.96 Oaks, Early Voting 24.37,1/8 12.35- WinnerSkippylongstocking 24.31 1/8 12.23 Wood------Speed numbers -------Bris---Beyer--Equibase
Bris high Early Voting 111 Winner, Beyer Epicenter 102 -2nd, Equibase Creative Minister 108 3rd
Top Number for each Got the Trifecta..
Simplification 98 96 ---- 101Creative Minister 101 92 108Fenwick 63 88 54Secret Oath 103 94 105Early Voting 111 96 102Happy Jack 81 83 81Armagnac 97 93 92Epicenter 101 102 105
Skippylongstocking 107 98 97----
E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 104/ 93 SPEED 104
*Early Voting 95 104/111 111- WINNER, *Skippylongstocking 88 97/111 107
Just Missed Secret Oath(f) 101 109/93 103
* Wood Souped up track imo
----Back Speed :111 Early Voting WINNER107 Skippylongstocking 101 Creative Minister 101 Epicenter 98 Simplification 97 Secret Oath 97 Happy Jack 97 Armagnac 74 Fenwick-Speed Last Race :111 Early Voting-WINNER 107 Skippylongstocking 103 Secret Oath 101 Creative Minister 101 Epicenter 98 Simplification 97 Armagnac 81 Happy Jack 63 Fenwick--Early Pace Last Race:103 Epicenter 101 -2nd Secret Oath 95-4th Early Voting 95-First, Armagnac 91 Creative Minister 90 -3RDSimplification 88 Skippylongstocking 84 Fenwick 76 Happy Jack--Late Pace Last Race :111 Early Voting 111 WINNER Skippylongstocking 102 Creative Minister 93 Secret Oath 92 Armagnac 88 Simplification 86 Epicenter 65 Happy Jack 38 Fenwick-Average Distance Surface Speed :Early Voting 111- First,Creative Minister 101,Skippylongstocking 101,Epicenter 100Simplification 95, Secret Oath 94, Armagnac 94, Happy Jack 89, Fenwick 69-
Days Off :Early Voting 42 Winner, Skippylongstocking 42, Fenwick 42. Resting Worked out this year.
--Rasmussen Factor; Not the Winner
Secret Oath, Simplification, Creative Minister, Happy Jack
How Message 1124 Data did in the Preakness for the Win:
good angle For Early Voting He had both Angles. Conduit 9b Idle Fancy B classification
has 2 Preakness Winners.
: WINNER P/N E8 Early Voting had 2 Previous Long Nick Preakness Winners
MR P / Man O War (S) is the long Nick
Early Voting: Fappiano/In reality is shorter nick
Smarty Jones 2004 : Mr P/ Inreality Short Nick
Real Quiet 1998 : Fappiano/ Inreality Short Nick
Note 2nd and 3rd Place Epicenter and Creative Minister Had Long Nicks also
6 entrants Had nicks/
Preakness previous Condit Mare Tfemale Family
Early Voting CMP Conduit 9b Idle fancy Hill Prince 1950
Skippy was the only other one with this
2022 Preakness 5/21/22 Race 13: by post position
Who said Belmont Stakes !
4 or more Tf Families in 5 generation chart listed,: at least 4 horses counted
For each TF family listed within 5 generations, 1st family listed Tail Family 6 or more
if more than 6 listed it got help somewhere else within 5 generations
the same for Sire family tf more than 5 and Bms Line if more than 4.
2nd Family listed Sire Family 5 or more 3rd Family listed BMSire Family 4 or more.
also listed families with at least 4 horses or more within 5 generations.
How They did last year >
last Q on Dirt 11/8 mile or longer.last race only 25.40 or better--
Essential Quality WON24.98,Hot Rod Charlie 2nd 25.04Bourbonic 25.30,Known Agenda 4th24.98,Overtook 25.06Rombauer3 rd 24.40
1 pt-turn time Q only
This from last year:
Good stuff. I wish EV was running in the Belmont. He looks like the class of this crop.
Thanks, It would be nice to see him in a 12f race, I think the BC is the target now.
Female families 8 and Females family 5 are compatible marriages within a pedigree
That works in the Belomont Stake. for example Native Dancer 5f and Raise You 8f gives you Raise A Native 8f
look for both of these families 8 and 5 in a Pedigree.. Here is a list of Family 8 , next message will be family 5.