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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 172628 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/4/22

Speaking of Tonalist, only 2 horses (in 30 years, there were a few  before that) have ever won the Belmont off the winning the Peter Pan......Tonalist and AP Indy. 

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

6/4/22

AP Indy is one of those super BMS sires.

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

6/4/22

I really like Smokin T . . . maybe a 7-11 exacta.   with Red Run in there somewhere.  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/4/22

smartyslew said...

Race 11 Saturday at Churchill  3 yr olds

11th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, June 4th, 2022

She's All Wolfe, horse / trainer I follow at OP  just won the turf race 7 and paid $42++.   OP rider Arrietta who has always done well with this horse......they "tried" Mike Smith in the La Trionne Stakes and he didn't bring it.   Just goes to show, big money riders don't necessarily do better.  Ermania wasn't bad either at REM.

Interesting race 11.   But in Race 10 before it, Title Ready scratched so they're unfortunately down to a mere 7 horse field.  I think Americanrevolution is the worthy favorite and will go off lower than 8/5.   Guess you can play with proxy, scalding for a chalky exacta.   Longshot bomb would be Santos Dumont .. Not because of his odds but because I always look at Don Alberto breedings, and I followed him at Oaklawn for 5+ races but he was with Asmussen until Feb 2022,  so now I'm not sure.  He's an allowance horse so this would be a big step up in class, but may be worth throwing into a superfecta for value.    

For R11, looking forward to Spin Wheel and perhaps Red Run and Speaking Scout.  (Major General on turf, will have to just watch him this round. )

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/4/22

I put these weekend 3 year old races on here to see if anyone is interested .

I didn't have time to do anything with them.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/4/22

Wintertrian said...

For R11, looking forward to Spin Wheel and perhaps Red Run and Speaking Scout.  (Major General on turf, will have to just watch him this round. )

And Kitodan takes it at 40-1 and pays $82 win / $29.20 place.   Nowhere on my paper ticket.  Bet that killed a lot of "pick tickets" today for those who played. 

Rob I was just watching them since you put the link up.  Otherwise, I don't really wager much except at Oaklawn during the meet since I go in person there........ and sometimes use my AWD online if I want to wager some of the TC and BC races.   I don't keep money in my account so I have to be really inspired to make a deposit.  The less win/loss statements I have in my life the better.  :) 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/4/22

And Rosario climbs aboard Barber Road, for all the fans out there.

Winless in 5 starts and will not be wearing his usual blinkers either.   

Rosario won on Tonalist and Sir Winston, so there go the odds

I'm superstitious about keeping riders and not replacing them with the big money guys and also not a big Rosario fan, though admittedly, he either brings it or messes up so badly it makes your head hurt.   So this (and what appear to will be wonky odds, just like in the Preakness) may keep me from actually spending $ on this race, but we'll see.   Some of these horses should be 20-1 at least, on the M/L and I suspect few if any will be.   

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/4/22

I'm glad I didn't jump in on this race. 

To me it looks like The late Developers did good, Is there another Tiznow In here.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/5/22

I am kinda in Frankel's camp on Jocks, If they make a mistake at the gate's start it isn't good.

Its like being ready and Never blink , a blink can cost you, be prepared,  route Races never race wide on all turns,
You might getaway being wide on one turn,. Grading a ride is good points for what you did right until a mistake is noted

If you make a mistake and its close to the wire, that's a good ride you got us there, a good ride its easy for some to

knock a jock for a split second mistake close to the wire. grade the whole race what did you like, what didn't you like.

Msg 1770.1191 deleted
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