This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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I am kinda in Frankel's camp on Jocks, If they make a mistake at the gate's start it isn't good.
Its like being ready and Never blink , a blink can cost you, be prepared, route Races never race wide on all turns,
You might getaway being wide on one turn,. Grading a ride is good points for what you did right until a mistake is noted
If you make a mistake and its close to the wire, that's a good ride you got us there, a good ride its easy for some to
knock a jock for a split second mistake close to the wire. grade the whole race what did you like, what didn't you like.
smartyslew said...I'm glad I didn't jump in on this race.
The late $0.50 pick 5 paid $424,000.
Chalk players never get it those kinda payouts.
It will be interesting to see how the 2nd generation Tapits do.
As everyone is aware, the ones that won the Belmont were all 1st gens, as were some of the other non Belmont winners like Frosted, Lani, etc.
Has Tapit produced any 2nd gen G1 winners over 10F yet? I only kept track of a few 2nd gens like Desert Dawn, Glass Ceiling, etc. Tiz the Law ran the Belmont at 9F, and never ran over 10F at all.
I did keep track of some horses where Tapit was their BMS, like Silver Prospector, Tenfold, etc. (I like Creative Minister but more because of his sire and less because of Tapit being his BMS, plus I'm not convinced he can win the Belmont even though I like him a lot).
As for the 2nd gen Tapits w/Constitution as a sire, I was never a fan (Major General, Independence Hall, Americanrevolution, Never Surprised, Promise Keeper, etc.) which is probably why I'm not a huge fan of We The People either.
So which ones left have a sire that won 9F and longer? I'm going to use that as a starting point.
smartyslew said...that's a good question when a Sire becomes a Grand Sire,
It wasn't really a question, just a statement that I thought everyone would be aware of when looking at pedigrees. There are first gen 2nd gen 3rd gen sires and so on (and an equal number of "crops" in each gen of course.)
I just wanted everybody to know that we really do not have any information about subsequent gens of some sires going 10F+ because........they haven't raced at those distances yet.
sovereign1 said...So which ones left have a sire that won 9F and longer?
I don't think you understand.
I was just pointing out that all the "tapits" in this field are 2nd gens. i.e. no horse in this race is "directly sired" by Tapit.........like the 4 who won previous Belmonts. Those were 1st gens. So was Lani, Frosted, etc.
I hope that makes sense. And I can't tell you what 2nd gens will do in the Belmont. Unless I had a crystal ball. Anymore than I can tell you if a horse sired by creative cause or uncle mo can.
All the information you need is in these topics and most all the horses have influences of over 9F and 10F anyway or they wouldn't have been able to run in the prep races. :) Everyone has their favorite "influences" and I'm sure smarty's and anyone else's would be different from mine. We are all "trying to project" which of these can win/place/show at 12F. None of them have run that far yet.
Will the 2nd gen Tapits bring it like the first gens did? I have no idea. Not saying not to use them. Just saying that it would be kinda silly to "assume" that the first gens and 2nd gens are the same.
I don't want to look for my post but that is why I made the post where I pointed out that in past years, a Twirling Candy, a Shanghai Bobby, a Curlin, a Union Rags, a Malibu Moon etc. have run 3rd. And a Scat Daddy and Lonhro ran 1, 2; a Curlin and Awesome Again ran 1,2; an AP Indy, Giants Causeway, Oxbow and Curlin have run 2nd, etc. And that's just pointing out the sires. Without considering the mare side.
So the question you asked me previously is a very large research project.......like book format large.
Next, you have to decide if they are (or can) "express" the pedigrees you like on the track, and will they do that at 12F.
It's a puzzle. I like puzzles so I've spent a lot of time looking at PPs which I have saved going back to 2009 for this race and I study them year after year. Yet, I've only won "big" 3 times in 20 years. (high paying exactas not trifectas). I missed Gronkowski, for instance. Ruler On Ice, and even Tapwrit. Something always messes up my bet. As I"m sure many thousands of others experience.
My brother is a Curlin fan, so he is likely to box the Curlins so you can be assured that Rich Strike, Skippy and Nest will be on his ticket.
Tons of other people don't even care about this stuff. They will use PPs and running lines and cap it just like any other race. Not everyone even believe in pedigree capping.