smartyslew said...

that's a good question when a Sire becomes a Grand Sire,

It wasn't really a question, just a statement that I thought everyone would be aware of when looking at pedigrees.   There are first gen 2nd gen 3rd gen sires and so on (and an equal number of "crops" in each gen of course.) 

I just wanted everybody to know that we really do not have any information about subsequent gens of some sires going 10F+ because........they haven't raced at those distances yet.    

 

sovereign1 said...

So which ones left have a sire that won 9F and longer?

I don't think you understand. 

I was just pointing out that all the "tapits" in this field are 2nd gens.  i.e. no horse in this race is "directly sired" by Tapit.........like the 4 who won previous Belmonts.   Those were 1st gens.  So was Lani, Frosted, etc.  

I hope that makes sense.   And I can't tell you what 2nd gens will do in the Belmont.  Unless I had a crystal ball.  Anymore than I can tell you if a horse sired by creative cause or uncle mo can. 

All the information you need is in these topics and most all the horses have influences of over 9F and 10F anyway or they wouldn't have been able to run in the prep races.  :)   Everyone has their favorite "influences" and I'm sure smarty's and anyone else's would be different from mine.  We are all "trying to project" which of these can win/place/show at 12F.   None of them have run that far yet.

Will the 2nd gen Tapits bring it like the first gens did?   I have no idea.   Not saying not to use them.  Just saying that it would be kinda silly to  "assume" that the first gens and 2nd gens are the same.  

I don't want to look for my post but that is why I made the post where I  pointed out that in past years, a Twirling Candy, a Shanghai Bobby, a Curlin, a Union Rags, a Malibu Moon etc. have run 3rd.   And a Scat Daddy and Lonhro ran 1, 2; a Curlin and Awesome Again ran 1,2; an AP Indy, Giants Causeway, Oxbow and Curlin have run 2nd, etc. And that's just pointing out the sires.  Without considering the mare side. 

So the question you asked me previously is a very large research project.......like book format large.  

Next, you have to decide if they are (or can)  "express" the pedigrees you like on the track, and will they do  that at 12F. 

 It's a puzzle.   I like puzzles so I've spent a lot of time looking at PPs which I have saved going back to 2009 for this race and I study them year after year.   Yet, I've only won "big" 3 times in 20 years.  (high paying exactas not trifectas).   I missed Gronkowski, for instance.  Ruler On Ice, and even Tapwrit.  Something always messes up my bet.    As I"m sure many thousands of others experience.   

My brother is a Curlin fan, so he is likely to box the Curlins so you can be assured that Rich Strike, Skippy and Nest will be on his ticket.       

Tons of other people don't even care about this stuff.  They will use PPs and running lines and cap it just like any other race.  Not everyone even believe in pedigree capping. 

I think pedigree would come into play at this distance.

I'm sorry, and it mught have been explained before, but what is the Rasmussen Factor?

Thanks.

When an Female Has progeny On both the Sire side and The Dam side, I use 6 generations not 5 like Rasmussen

also I'll use the Sire side and or the female side 5 generation looking for a rf. Also it increases the same Female families
positions within 5 generations and I think that helps a horse.  

Leon Rasmussen, a staunch advocate for what became known as the "Rasmussen Factor" i.e. a principle relating to breeding back to superior females through different individuals within the first 5 generations..
---
Justify Had the RF in his pedigree His Grandsire Johanesburg 2nd  Dam Yarn2f and his 2nd Dam Sire Pulpit's
Dam Preach2f  are full Sisters (RF)From The Mare Narrate bred to Mr Prospector,.
It didn't hurt for Mr P to have 2 more daughters within 5 generations . I have not run into that since.

4 daughres by Mr P...also Narrate passes The X factor from Princequillo in this case thru Pulpit in a PP.
thats another bonus.

good explanation of RF.  Another "hypothetical" theory / system, like every other system of course but something useful to "consider" jst like 10+ other factors a good capper will employ.