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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 168050 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-7

smartyslew said...

that's a good question when a Sire becomes a Grand Sire,

It wasn't really a question, just a statement that I thought everyone would be aware of when looking at pedigrees.   There are first gen 2nd gen 3rd gen sires and so on (and an equal number of "crops" in each gen of course.) 

I just wanted everybody to know that we really do not have any information about subsequent gens of some sires going 10F+ because........they haven't raced at those distances yet.    

 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-7

sovereign1 said...

So which ones left have a sire that won 9F and longer?

I don't think you understand. 

I was just pointing out that all the "tapits" in this field are 2nd gens.  i.e. no horse in this race is "directly sired" by Tapit.........like the 4 who won previous Belmonts.   Those were 1st gens.  So was Lani, Frosted, etc.  

I hope that makes sense.   And I can't tell you what 2nd gens will do in the Belmont.  Unless I had a crystal ball.  Anymore than I can tell you if a horse sired by creative cause or uncle mo can. 

All the information you need is in these topics and most all the horses have influences of over 9F and 10F anyway or they wouldn't have been able to run in the prep races.  :)   Everyone has their favorite "influences" and I'm sure smarty's and anyone else's would be different from mine.  We are all "trying to project" which of these can win/place/show at 12F.   None of them have run that far yet.

Will the 2nd gen Tapits bring it like the first gens did?   I have no idea.   Not saying not to use them.  Just saying that it would be kinda silly to  "assume" that the first gens and 2nd gens are the same.  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-7

I don't want to look for my post but that is why I made the post where I  pointed out that in past years, a Twirling Candy, a Shanghai Bobby, a Curlin, a Union Rags, a Malibu Moon etc. have run 3rd.   And a Scat Daddy and Lonhro ran 1, 2; a Curlin and Awesome Again ran 1,2; an AP Indy, Giants Causeway, Oxbow and Curlin have run 2nd, etc. And that's just pointing out the sires.  Without considering the mare side. 

So the question you asked me previously is a very large research project.......like book format large.  

Next, you have to decide if they are (or can)  "express" the pedigrees you like on the track, and will they do  that at 12F. 

 It's a puzzle.   I like puzzles so I've spent a lot of time looking at PPs which I have saved going back to 2009 for this race and I study them year after year.   Yet, I've only won "big" 3 times in 20 years.  (high paying exactas not trifectas).   I missed Gronkowski, for instance.  Ruler On Ice, and even Tapwrit.  Something always messes up my bet.    As I"m sure many thousands of others experience.   

My brother is a Curlin fan, so he is likely to box the Curlins so you can be assured that Rich Strike, Skippy and Nest will be on his ticket.       

Tons of other people don't even care about this stuff.  They will use PPs and running lines and cap it just like any other race.  Not everyone even believe in pedigree capping. 

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-7

I think pedigree would come into play at this distance.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

Bris late and early Numbers last race are suspect. The Classification looks off
for some imo
--
Bris Early last speed number vs early splits.  do your own Due diligence
101 Nest  EP4    1st Q   23.66 47.43  11.75  6f           
101 Creative Minister P1 25.42 48.36  11.90 
97 Skippylongstocking EP 25.62  48.76  12.31
83 We the People E6     23.66 47.24 11.25
80 Rich Strike   S         25.12  48.70 12.60
80 Mo Donegal S1        25.41 48.49  12.50
77 Barber Road S2           25.71 48.81  13.11
75 Golden Glider  S3         24.36 47.95 11.85
---
Bris late pace last race numbers vs the raw time  mile time listed first
25.40 and faster historical guidelines for last Q
-
118 We the People E6  35.63 48.27 Peter Pan 9f last Q 24.83, 1/8 12.64 geared down
103 Golden Glider What ? 37.23 50.32 PeterPan 9f last Q  25.76 1/8  13.09
97 Rich Strike            37.84 2.02.61  Derby  Last Q 24.77
91 Barber Road          38.25  2.03.52 Derby 10f  last Q 25.27  11 wide
90 Nest                    37.08  49.44  Oaks  9f,   Last Q 25.03.1/8 12.36*  came back       
89 Mo Donegal          37.64 2.03.32  Derby, last Q 25.68  10 wide
81 Creative Minister   36.45  55.24  Preak. 9 3/16  last Q 24.93
78 Skippylongstocking  36.87 56.04  Preak 9 3/16  Last Q 25.31 
 *Last 1/8 faster than previous 1/8 from last Q time
----
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

belmont angles pg 1  2022 , I don't have the Beyer Data yet.
--
last Q on Dirt 11/8 mile or longer. last race only 25.40 or better
--
Rich Strike 24.77,We The People 24.83,Creative Minister 24.93,
Nest 25.03,Barber Road 25.27,Skippylongstocking 25.31

---
1 pt-turn To-quarter only last race 25.40 or  better
 Nest 24.32, We The People 24.38,Creative Minister 24.55,Skippy 24.56
...[Message truncated]
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sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-8

I'm sorry, and it mught have been explained before, but what is the Rasmussen Factor?

Thanks.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

When an Female Has progeny On both the Sire side and The Dam side, I use 6 generations not 5 like Rasmussen

also I'll use the Sire side and or the female side 5 generation looking for a rf. Also it increases the same Female families
positions within 5 generations and I think that helps a horse.  

Leon Rasmussen, a staunch advocate for what became known as the "Rasmussen Factor" i.e. a principle relating to breeding back to superior females through different individuals within the first 5 generations..
---
Justify Had the RF in his pedigree His Grandsire Johanesburg 2nd  Dam Yarn2f and his 2nd Dam Sire Pulpit's
Dam Preach2f  are full Sisters (RF)From The Mare Narrate bred to Mr Prospector,.
It didn't hurt for Mr P to have 2 more daughters within 5 generations . I have not run into that since.

4 daughres by Mr P...also Narrate passes The X factor from Princequillo in this case thru Pulpit in a PP.
thats another bonus.


 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-8

good explanation of RF.  Another "hypothetical" theory / system, like every other system of course but something useful to "consider" jst like 10+ other factors a good capper will employ.  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

Afleet Alex,Sarava,Thunder Gulch ,ruler on ice
these are the only 4   0-0 Belmont winners without a
stamina chef in 5 generations. In fact they are the only 3
without a stamina chef going back thru 1940. 3 others
Jazil(RF),Point Given,Hansel going back thru 1970, have only one
stamina chef in 5 generations.those 3 and Touch Gold,Danzig Connection
that don't have a stamina chef on the Sire side.thats 8 winners
without a stamina chef on the sire side.add ruler on ice to this,union rags
-- 
0-0 stamina contender without a stam chef in 5 gen.1negative pt
Skippylongstocking, Mo Donegal, 
- 
only one stamina chef- 1negative pt
We The People, Nest, Rich Strike, Creative Minister
Golden Glider,Barber Road,
--
no stam chef-sire side- 1 negative
Skippylongstocking, Rich Strike,. Creative Minister,
Mo Donegal, Golden Glider 
- 
stam chef 4 gen------------------- 1 positive pt   
None
 -
dominate  classic pts -1 positive pt 
Nest, Creative Minister, Golden Glider,
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