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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 149782 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

Bris late and early Numbers last race are suspect. The Classification looks off
for some imo
--
Bris Early last speed number vs early splits.  do your own Due diligence
101 Nest  EP4    1st Q   23.66 47.43  11.75  6f           
101 Creative Minister P1 25.42 48.36  11.90 
97 Skippylongstocking EP 25.62  48.76  12.31
83 We the People E6     23.66 47.24 11.25
80 Rich Strike   S         25.12  48.70 12.60
80 Mo Donegal S1        25.41 48.49  12.50
77 Barber Road S2           25.71 48.81  13.11
75 Golden Glider  S3         24.36 47.95 11.85
---
Bris late pace last race numbers vs the raw time  mile time listed first
25.40 and faster historical guidelines for last Q
-
118 We the People E6  35.63 48.27 Peter Pan 9f last Q 24.83, 1/8 12.64 geared down
103 Golden Glider What ? 37.23 50.32 PeterPan 9f last Q  25.76 1/8  13.09
97 Rich Strike            37.84 2.02.61  Derby  Last Q 24.77
91 Barber Road          38.25  2.03.52 Derby 10f  last Q 25.27  11 wide
90 Nest                    37.08  49.44  Oaks  9f,   Last Q 25.03.1/8 12.36*  came back       
89 Mo Donegal          37.64 2.03.32  Derby, last Q 25.68  10 wide
81 Creative Minister   36.45  55.24  Preak. 9 3/16  last Q 24.93
78 Skippylongstocking  36.87 56.04  Preak 9 3/16  Last Q 25.31 
 *Last 1/8 faster than previous 1/8 from last Q time
----
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

belmont angles pg 1  2022 , I don't have the Beyer Data yet.
--
last Q on Dirt 11/8 mile or longer. last race only 25.40 or better
--
Rich Strike 24.77,We The People 24.83,Creative Minister 24.93,
Nest 25.03,Barber Road 25.27,Skippylongstocking 25.31

---
1 pt-turn To-quarter only last race 25.40 or  better
 Nest 24.32, We The People 24.38,Creative Minister 24.55,Skippy 24.56
...[Message truncated]
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sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-8

I'm sorry, and it mught have been explained before, but what is the Rasmussen Factor?

Thanks.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

When an Female Has progeny On both the Sire side and The Dam side, I use 6 generations not 5 like Rasmussen

also I'll use the Sire side and or the female side 5 generation looking for a rf. Also it increases the same Female families
positions within 5 generations and I think that helps a horse.  

Leon Rasmussen, a staunch advocate for what became known as the "Rasmussen Factor" i.e. a principle relating to breeding back to superior females through different individuals within the first 5 generations..
---
Justify Had the RF in his pedigree His Grandsire Johanesburg 2nd  Dam Yarn2f and his 2nd Dam Sire Pulpit's
Dam Preach2f  are full Sisters (RF)From The Mare Narrate bred to Mr Prospector,.
It didn't hurt for Mr P to have 2 more daughters within 5 generations . I have not run into that since.

4 daughres by Mr P...also Narrate passes The X factor from Princequillo in this case thru Pulpit in a PP.
thats another bonus.


 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-8

good explanation of RF.  Another "hypothetical" theory / system, like every other system of course but something useful to "consider" jst like 10+ other factors a good capper will employ.  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

Afleet Alex,Sarava,Thunder Gulch ,ruler on ice
these are the only 4   0-0 Belmont winners without a
stamina chef in 5 generations. In fact they are the only 3
without a stamina chef going back thru 1940. 3 others
Jazil(RF),Point Given,Hansel going back thru 1970, have only one
stamina chef in 5 generations.those 3 and Touch Gold,Danzig Connection
that don't have a stamina chef on the Sire side.thats 8 winners
without a stamina chef on the sire side.add ruler on ice to this,union rags
-- 
0-0 stamina contender without a stam chef in 5 gen.1negative pt
Skippylongstocking, Mo Donegal, 
- 
only one stamina chef- 1negative pt
We The People, Nest, Rich Strike, Creative Minister
Golden Glider,Barber Road,
--
no stam chef-sire side- 1 negative
Skippylongstocking, Rich Strike,. Creative Minister,
Mo Donegal, Golden Glider 
- 
stam chef 4 gen------------------- 1 positive pt   
None
 -
dominate  classic pts -1 positive pt 
Nest, Creative Minister, Golden Glider,
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

Don't tell the Australian Horseman thats its a Hypothetical Theory , And a percentage of North American followers

I know the Guy from not werk, the other out fit that uses a AA etc for nicks  Porter Knocks it and others.

Same for LH , There Is no Scientific evidence, for it either doesn't mean there won't be. The Earth Is flat stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-8

My God! Will anyone from this field finish the race?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

LOL. A weak Pedigree field , remember what they do on the track performance trumps their pedigree.

they will finish 12 f , worse field might be 8 Bc Sprinters  trying 12f  , most would finish 12f.

There is some decent Performers that suggest they can get 12f. and some have decent splits. imo

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-8

smartyslew said...

Don't tell the Australian Horseman thats its a Hypothetical Theory

You mean like those who knew about Lonhro, all that New Zealand / Aussie in his sire side pedigree, 11 time G1 winner and Australian Horse of the Year?    And SIRED by another Austalian Horse of the Year (Octagonal, the Big O)...... and Big O's sire Zabeel, sire of 3 Melbourne Cup winners? 

No, I don't tell them anything, they are way ahead of the curve from what I've seen.  

Yet, Gronkowski went off at 8th longest odds in a 10-horse field  in his Belmont here,  despite that pedigree and after having won everything there is to win at Newmarket, Newbury, Kempton, Newcastle.  

BMS was Lookin at Lucky. 

It helps to keep a virtual stable at well known non-U.S. racing publication, for horses that Equibase and DRF don't allow you to do.   The cappers from over the pond are pretty savvy, I have learned a lot from them 

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