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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 149853 views.
sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-8

My God! Will anyone from this field finish the race?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-8

LOL. A weak Pedigree field , remember what they do on the track performance trumps their pedigree.

they will finish 12 f , worse field might be 8 Bc Sprinters  trying 12f  , most would finish 12f.

There is some decent Performers that suggest they can get 12f. and some have decent splits. imo

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-8

smartyslew said...

Don't tell the Australian Horseman thats its a Hypothetical Theory

You mean like those who knew about Lonhro, all that New Zealand / Aussie in his sire side pedigree, 11 time G1 winner and Australian Horse of the Year?    And SIRED by another Austalian Horse of the Year (Octagonal, the Big O)...... and Big O's sire Zabeel, sire of 3 Melbourne Cup winners? 

No, I don't tell them anything, they are way ahead of the curve from what I've seen.  

Yet, Gronkowski went off at 8th longest odds in a 10-horse field  in his Belmont here,  despite that pedigree and after having won everything there is to win at Newmarket, Newbury, Kempton, Newcastle.  

BMS was Lookin at Lucky. 

It helps to keep a virtual stable at well known non-U.S. racing publication, for horses that Equibase and DRF don't allow you to do.   The cappers from over the pond are pretty savvy, I have learned a lot from them 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-8

smartyslew said...

LOL. A weak Pedigree field , remember what they do on the track performance trumps their pedigree.

Bingo.  

I use "the other stuff" for my longshots though. 
 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-9

Don't forget Lonhro has some of that good  Argentina blood  from his Dams side Thru Forli and Gronkowski was bred in the USA

and had 0-0 Stamina pts in his dosage and no Stam Chefs , but lot of his pedigree was outside the Usa ,and the dosage pts and Stam Chef is moot in my opinion . 

Many other elite horses that raced in the Tc series over the years fell in this category and you have to be aware of it.

Like Candy Ride and his Progeny, Pioneerof the Nile, AMerican Pharoah  Gun Runner, to name a few. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-9

Sometimes I use it for a tiebreaker, like this year, a rf, a stam chef on the Sire side, Classisity,

If 2 horses are close in splits, Early time, Last Q 25.40. last 1/8 faster than the the 1/8  from the Last Q time in a 9f race

and pretty even in the variants  and different scenarios puts them right there I can look at the RF or Stam Chef like Nijinsky CS

whos been there before i'll look at for my tiebreaker, Last Q time you have to take in where that started from. How far behind the lead.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-9

I never know "how" I'm going to use last Q or final 1/8.  Seem to work better in Preak or Derby?   

Brody's Cause, Damsire Roberto.  Last Q 25.57 Derby which in THAT Belmont made him 3rd fastest in the field --- and he never lost ground in any races but 6th in the BEL.   

Creator  finished 18 lengths behind Nyquist in the KY Derby!   (After winning Arkie Derby final 1/8 in 12.66.)    "Come from the clouds grinder" running style.....but his dam had that nice south american blood from Peru.     

Cherry Wine, another late runner who was known for running over sloppy tracks. 7th in the Belmont on clear/fast......but that was more becasue of pedigree.   

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-9

Brodys Cause didn't meet the Historical Guidelines last Q 25,40 or faster, he had a slow final Q, 
was he backing up ?

Creator might of needed a line drawn thru the Derby race, I don't  remember

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-10

Thank you for that !

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