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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 152316 views.
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Jul-21

I remember you liking JC at the beginning of the year.....by a lot.  I do too.  I'll be interested in Taiba's performance under new trainer, Beta Bob :)

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jul-22

Jack Christopher in his 4 sprints has never been more than 1 length behind and no worse than 2nd.

this 9f race I look for him to be close to the front all the way around and show us his class UNTIL

I noticed the Whole field of 8 are all  EP types and JC is chalk 3-2 and Taiba 7-5. That sets up

for some race riding imo and first one to the spot Wins,
Baffert is more than loaded this year, does he have enough help with his Millionaires row.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Jul-23

You're right, and Abarrio may benefit from a pace duel.....he's got Rosario now, may make the difference

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Jul-23

WOW!  Cox sure had Cyberknife ready to roll, fast time too......JC pushed, probably too fast fractions for first time around two turns.  Maybe stay shorter in BC Mile?  Hard to imagine Cyberknife as the winner of the Classic, but perhaps he has improved enough? 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jul-23

The track was fast all day and with this group I looked for a fast time like that

Gun Runner exacta from his 1st crop, and JC sat off the hip of a 56 to 1 and was stretched

and his break was average and first time 2 turns was ok, needed a better ride Imo.

I lost him coming out of the gate and have to look at the replay. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jul-30

Jim Dandy Stakes : I like the way Epicenter looked winning today.  Joel 4 wins today.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jul-31

The Mig says :PRANK  is no JOKE !!!!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-20

Derby winners without a stam chef within 5 generations
With each crop the Chefs are getting pushed back further
and it will come to their progeny being in the 5th generation
like these Derby winners without a Stam Chef in 5 generations,
only 4 Derby Winners in the last 86 years haven't had a Stamina Chef
within their 5 generation pedigree chart. They are listed here.
I cringe every time I see Somebody place a future Bet on a Horse
that doesn't have a Stamina Chef in the 5 generation pedigree chart.
these 4 I listed that don't and won the derby had at least 4 lines of
Stamina Chefs in the 6th generation.
------
2020 Authentic has progeny of 4 stam chefs in his 5 generation pedigree chart
Princequillo (IS),Ribot (CP), Nijinsky (CS),Sea Bird (S) But no Stam Chefs within 5 generation Guidelines
--
2016 Nyquist has progeny of Stam Chef in his 5th generation 
Creme Dela Creme (CS),Princequillo (IS),Ribot (CP)2,one on each side, no Stam Chefs within 5 generation Guidelines
--
1995 Thunder Gulch has Discovery(S)Teddy (S)Solario(P)Donatello(P)
Chateau Bouscaut (P), no Stam Chefs within 5 generation Guidelines
--
1986 Ferdinand has Discovery(S)Blenheim (CS)Teddy 3(S)Man O War(S) 2
Sunstar(S)Fair Play(SP) no Stam Chefs within 5 generation Guidelines last 86 years
-
1936 Bold Venture ; nothing
--
1931 Twenty Grand Doesn't meet the Timeline for Chefs
--
  • Edited September 6, 2022 1:01 am  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-26

Travers 8-27-22: the odds are suspect imo.
--EDIT to show how the angles did

 Best speed at distance:7 Early Voting 104 6 Epicenter 103-1st 2 Rich Strike 102-4th,Zandon 100-3rd,
Won at distance: Early Voting 104(G1)Rich Strike 102(G1)Epicenter 101(g2)-1st 112 beyer today
---
Back Speed :111 Early Voting 107 Epicenter 106 -1stZandon 104 -3rdCyberknife 102 -2nd,Rich Strike 99 -4th,Artorius 96 Gilded Age NA Ain't Life Gran
----
pars:E1 E2/LATE SPEED,94 104/ 93 104
Cyberknife 84,99, 103 104(9f)-2nd, Epicenter 84,92,117, 107(9f) best Par going in WON
Early Voting 108,118,85, 104,(1 3/16) Zandon 87,95,111,106(9f)2nd-3rd
---
Last Q 25.40 or faster, with bris  late pace number adjusted for variant. Epicenter Best number going in WON
Cyberknife 23.89-103, Epicenter 24.59-117*,Rich Strike 24.75-103 Derby
Zandon 24.78-111, Artorius 25.26-104,Early Voting  25.33-105
--
Lasix free: Rich Strike-4th, Epicenter-1st, Early Voting, Zandon -3rd: My Trifecta Box for giggles a repeat of the Derby ! LOL
and Supersize it !heart_eyes
---
Saratoga - Saturday, August 27th, 2022, Race 11
STAKES. 1 1/4 Mile Dirt. Purse $1,250,000. Runhappy Travers S. (Grade 1). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. This is a Non-Lasix race pursuant to 4043.2 (7)(e)(5) Lasix not permitted within 48 hours of post time. By subscription of $1,250 each which should accompany the nomination; $9,000 to pass the entry box and an additional $9,750 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental payment of $12,500 (along with the entry and starting fees) may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. The purse for the Runhappy Travers shall be divided as follows: $670,000 to the owner of the winner, $230,000 to second, $125,000 to third, $85,000 to fourth, $50,000 to fifth, $35,000 to sixth, $30,000 to seventh and $25,000 to eighth. Weight 126 lbs. Trophies will be presented to the winning owner, trainer and jockey. Closed Saturday, August 13, 2022 with 12 Nominations. (05:44 PM) (8)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey               Trainer                           distance record
1 Cyberknife P3   2G1W 9f 3 C L 3rd,5th r 126 Geroux Florent Cox Brad H.  7-2            1-0-0 -0   56   2nd
2 Rich Strike  S   1G1W  10f 3 C 126 Leon Sonny Reed Eric R.   10-1          1-1       102  4th
3 Ain't Life Grand P3     3 C L 8 races 126 Gaffalione Tyler Von Hemel Kelly R.  20-1   0-0
4
...[Message truncated]
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  • Edited August 27, 2022 10:09 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-29

Message 1268 the Travers

The play for this race IMO was the Chalky Superfecta For $1 per unit = $24.00 per  unit total  Or 10C per Unit= $2.40 per unit total.

If you have 1 on any line, and the same 4 horses on 3 other lines and do it in any combination of 4 lines it will cost $2,40 for a dime
$24 for a $1 for the super. This is my best play for Chalky races like this one. Epicenter was my Pick paid $4 for the Win, I didn't bet him to win. The performance for the other 4 were the best for a fast track at this elite level. I was confidant, that's the time to do it.

1st #6 Epicenter
2nd  #1 Cyberknife, #2 Rich Strike,#7 Early Voting, #8 Zandon
3rd     Same 4
4th     Same 4

$1 Super 6-1-8-2 pd  $146.50,   10 cent pd  $14.65  510 % return better than a kick in the pants.
many won't play chalk on top for that return. $24 win bet returns  $48,00 @$ 4.00
--

I missed my replay tri from the derby, I didn't have Cyberknife today in the tri
had him in the super, would of cost to much to add to the tri.
__
The first 4 Qualified for the last Quarter time of 25.40  or better a key for the win in a 10f  race.
the 1st 3 Qualified For Par Time Speed  104 or better 1st Epicenter 107,2nd Cyberknife 104, 3rd Zandon 106
--
Back Speed First 4 in the top 5 ,Early Voting 111 was 1st ,tired finished last
Best speed at distance The Winner was 2nd best 103,
1st,3rd,4th place finishers were Lasix free.
I forgot to mention The Horses I used had the Best Historical Perfomance Guidelines pre race
Like the Par Time, The Last Quarter time, Best speed at distance, won at The spa etc.
-
One of my buddies suggest that I say Epicenter faced more elite Runners, Than Cyberknife last
against lightly Raced Horses to win by a nose or head in his last 2 races.

--

  • Edited August 30, 2022 11:54 am  by  smartyslew
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