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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 171911 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-26

Travers 8-27-22: the odds are suspect imo.
--EDIT to show how the angles did

 Best speed at distance:7 Early Voting 104 6 Epicenter 103-1st 2 Rich Strike 102-4th,Zandon 100-3rd,
Won at distance: Early Voting 104(G1)Rich Strike 102(G1)Epicenter 101(g2)-1st 112 beyer today
---
Back Speed :111 Early Voting 107 Epicenter 106 -1stZandon 104 -3rdCyberknife 102 -2nd,Rich Strike 99 -4th,Artorius 96 Gilded Age NA Ain't Life Gran
----
pars:E1 E2/LATE SPEED,94 104/ 93 104
Cyberknife 84,99, 103 104(9f)-2nd, Epicenter 84,92,117, 107(9f) best Par going in WON
Early Voting 108,118,85, 104,(1 3/16) Zandon 87,95,111,106(9f)2nd-3rd
---
Last Q 25.40 or faster, with bris  late pace number adjusted for variant. Epicenter Best number going in WON
Cyberknife 23.89-103, Epicenter 24.59-117*,Rich Strike 24.75-103 Derby
Zandon 24.78-111, Artorius 25.26-104,Early Voting  25.33-105
--
Lasix free: Rich Strike-4th, Epicenter-1st, Early Voting, Zandon -3rd: My Trifecta Box for giggles a repeat of the Derby ! LOL
and Supersize it !heart_eyes
---
Saratoga - Saturday, August 27th, 2022, Race 11
STAKES. 1 1/4 Mile Dirt. Purse $1,250,000. Runhappy Travers S. (Grade 1). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. This is a Non-Lasix race pursuant to 4043.2 (7)(e)(5) Lasix not permitted within 48 hours of post time. By subscription of $1,250 each which should accompany the nomination; $9,000 to pass the entry box and an additional $9,750 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental payment of $12,500 (along with the entry and starting fees) may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. The purse for the Runhappy Travers shall be divided as follows: $670,000 to the owner of the winner, $230,000 to second, $125,000 to third, $85,000 to fourth, $50,000 to fifth, $35,000 to sixth, $30,000 to seventh and $25,000 to eighth. Weight 126 lbs. Trophies will be presented to the winning owner, trainer and jockey. Closed Saturday, August 13, 2022 with 12 Nominations. (05:44 PM) (8)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey               Trainer                           distance record
1 Cyberknife P3   2G1W 9f 3 C L 3rd,5th r 126 Geroux Florent Cox Brad H.  7-2            1-0-0 -0   56   2nd
2 Rich Strike  S   1G1W  10f 3 C 126 Leon Sonny Reed Eric R.   10-1          1-1       102  4th
3 Ain't Life Grand P3     3 C L 8 races 126 Gaffalione Tyler Von Hemel Kelly R.  20-1   0-0
4
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
  • Edited August 27, 2022 10:09 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-29

Message 1268 the Travers

The play for this race IMO was the Chalky Superfecta For $1 per unit = $24.00 per  unit total  Or 10C per Unit= $2.40 per unit total.

If you have 1 on any line, and the same 4 horses on 3 other lines and do it in any combination of 4 lines it will cost $2,40 for a dime
$24 for a $1 for the super. This is my best play for Chalky races like this one. Epicenter was my Pick paid $4 for the Win, I didn't bet him to win. The performance for the other 4 were the best for a fast track at this elite level. I was confidant, that's the time to do it.

1st #6 Epicenter
2nd  #1 Cyberknife, #2 Rich Strike,#7 Early Voting, #8 Zandon
3rd     Same 4
4th     Same 4

$1 Super 6-1-8-2 pd  $146.50,   10 cent pd  $14.65  510 % return better than a kick in the pants.
many won't play chalk on top for that return. $24 win bet returns  $48,00 @$ 4.00
--

I missed my replay tri from the derby, I didn't have Cyberknife today in the tri
had him in the super, would of cost to much to add to the tri.
__
The first 4 Qualified for the last Quarter time of 25.40  or better a key for the win in a 10f  race.
the 1st 3 Qualified For Par Time Speed  104 or better 1st Epicenter 107,2nd Cyberknife 104, 3rd Zandon 106
--
Back Speed First 4 in the top 5 ,Early Voting 111 was 1st ,tired finished last
Best speed at distance The Winner was 2nd best 103,
1st,3rd,4th place finishers were Lasix free.
I forgot to mention The Horses I used had the Best Historical Perfomance Guidelines pre race
Like the Par Time, The Last Quarter time, Best speed at distance, won at The spa etc.
-
One of my buddies suggest that I say Epicenter faced more elite Runners, Than Cyberknife last
against lightly Raced Horses to win by a nose or head in his last 2 races.

--

  • Edited August 30, 2022 11:54 am  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Aug-29

Thank you Plus ,love those two words.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-7

Since my thread for 2023 3 year olds was deleted and can't be recovered I'll list

the 2022 two year olds on this thread, 

2022 2 year olds will be started  now on this 2021 2 year olds topic ! 

they are 2023 3 year olds.

  • Edited September 7, 2022 12:22 am  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-7

This is my list for prospects for 2 yr olds that look like they can stretch out to 2 turns
and possible TC contenders a -z listed , I think it will take 6 messages on here to list a-z.
I will edit and update each page when needed.
--

2022 2yr old prospects for Classic Distance on my list A-B
--
I will upgrade When I have time
ABadin 10a,9b(10)Speightstown/Mda D'Oro
Abeliefinthislivin 8h,Arrogate/ Pulpit
Agency 9f, 13c (15) Bolt D 'Oro / Bernardini
Americas Guest 22d(8),13c(8)4m(7) Candy Ride/ The Factor (T)
Andthewinneris 7,Oscar Performance/ scat Daddy (T)
Andiamo a Firenze rf, 2f, (10) Speightstown / Langfuhr
Arabian Knight 23b, 13c (7)8c (7)16a(7) 2.3 M*  Uncle MO/Astrology
Arabian Lion 6a,13c(6) Justify/ Distorted Humor 2^  600,000
Ari Gold 6d ,9b (7) Mda D'oro/Dist. Humor 
Arman 8h,(7),13c(11),Bold D'Oro/Uncle Mo
Arrowthegreat 1g,(7) Arrogate/Arch
Arthurs Ride rf 17b,13c (7) Tapit/Point Given
Awesome Strong 3o,13c(7)Awesome Slew/Pleasant Tap $500,000
Battle Of Normandy 1x(10)13c(11)2d(6)City Light/Kittens Joy(t)
Big Commerce 16g,Justify/Majestic Warrior 
Big  Luke (IA) P/N,16c,3o(8)1x(6)20a(6)Tapiture/Say Florida Sandy
Big Wicks rf,9c(10)9b(7)Mda D'Oro/Grand Slam
Blamethegoodtimes 1e,4m(7)Blame/ Harlans Holiday 2^
Blazing Sevens 4j (8) Good Magic/ Warriors Reward
Blue Light 1a,13c (12) City Of Light/Tapit
Bourbon Bash 21a,13c(10)21a(7)City Of Light/ Violence
Bourbon Resolve 2o Hard Spun/ Touch Gold
Brees 4n (7),1x (7)13 c (6) Flatter/ War Front
Buddha Boy rf 9e,16a (6)The Factor/Jump Start *Under Rainbo
--
  • Edited October 12, 2022 3:25 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-7

page 2 C-E
-

Capture The Flag Rf 4r (11) 13c (11)Quality Road/War Front(
Carmel Road 4c,13c(13)Quality Road/Unbridleds Song 
Carsown 9f, 13c (13)Honor Code/Quality Road
Cave Rock 8h,Arrogate/ Bellamy Road
Champions Dream rf, 7a,2f(10)8c(6)Justify/Tapit
City Of Knowledge 4d,13c(10)City Of Light / Uncle Mo
Chulligan 19, Justify/ Mdalga Gold $825,000
Classic Legacy rf, 11g(8)23b(7)Into Mischief/ Distorted Humor
Classical Cat 19c,Mendelssohn/ Not Bourbon (t)
Coast Along 21a (7)13c(7) West Coast/ Broken Vow
Conversing rf.1L, 4m(11)23b(7)13c, Into Mischief/ Candy Ride
Confidence Game 4r,4m(11)13c(8) Candy Ride/Bernardini  25,000
Coolwind Rf 1o,13c(12)City Light/ Forest Wildcat  $710,000
Curly Jack 3e,12c(8)Good Magic/ Roman Ruler
Cyclone Mischief 9b,4m(8)23b(7) Into Mischief/Bernatdini 0^
Damons Mound rf ,3o,a1(7)1g(7)2f(6) Girvin/Stroll
Devils Red rf 13e,1x(15)13c(8)2d(7)More Than Ready/Elusive Quality 1^
Disarm 26,13c (6) Gun Runner/ Tapit
Divemaster 5e,13c(9) Mastery/Empire Maker
Don Corleone 16h,1x(9) MTR/Indian Charlie,  1.2 Mil.
Double Barrel 16g,13c(6) Gun Runner/ Scat Daddy 2
Double Feature 23b(11)8c(8)Mendelssohn/Giants Causeway
Drews Gold 1x(7)13c(7)Violence/ Vindication
Echo Again 8d Gun Runner/ Tapit
Elegant Trip N/P 5g, 4m (9), rf, Tourist / Api
Elwood Blues 5J Justify /Arch 2^
Extra Anejo 5h(8),23b(7) Into Mischief/Hard Spun (T) 4^ $ 1.35 Mil
-
  • Edited October 22, 2022 10:38 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-7

Page 3 F-H

-

Fair And Square 7,Super Saver/Drosselmeyer
Fast Fall 23b Frosted/ Kris S
Forbidden Secret 14f,8c(7)Outwork/After Market 0^ 
Forte rf,1x,13c(10) Violence/ Blame (T)
Freedom Road rf,4k,3L (7)13c (9)1x(7)Malibu Moon/Not For Love
Frosted Departure 2c,16g(8)1x(6) Frosted/ More Than Ready 1^
Full Coverage rf, 1x(7)2d(8)5h(8)Kittens Joy/Blame (t)
Gaslight Dancer 1w,13c(10) City Of Light/ Mda D'ro  (t)
Game Change 13d,13c(12)4m (7)Candy Ride/Pulpit  $850,000
Game Warden 17b(7)13c(10)Tapit /Mda D'Oro
Gandolfini rf,9f,2f(8)Justify/Simon Pure
Gas Me Up 12b, Hard Spun/Smart Strike 1^
General Jim 3L,23b(10) Into Mischief/Curlin $850,000
Gilcrease 11,1x(10) MTR/Bernardini (T)
Gilmore   5f,13c(9) Twirling Candy/ Henny Hughes
Giver Not a Taker 5j,1l(8)2d(7)13c(7) Danzing Candy/Kittens Joy(7) 3^
Gun Bullet 14,4m(8) Gun Runner/ Saint Ballado  3^
Unnamed-Good Magic, Musical Mystery by Concerto 10a 
Harbour Bridge 2o, Justify/Street Sense  $675,000
Hard To Figure 4m,16h(6)13c(6) Hard Spun/ Mr Greeley 0^
Harvard Yard 6a,13c(7) Justify/ AP Indy
Hawker 2f(11)Justify/ Touch Gold
Havnameltdown P/N 4i, Uncaptured/ Put It Back
Hejazi 12d, 13c (8) Bernardini / Meda D'oro 3.55 mil
Hey Brother 1n,13c(10)2f(6)City Of Light/Scat Daddy
Hollywood Hero P/N 19c, 8 2s,Malibu Moon/ Tiznow 
Honed 11c ,23b(6) Sharp Azteca/City Zip 0^ 
Hurricane J 13d,13c (10)8c(8) NyQuist/ Congrats
-
  • Edited October 22, 2022 10:42 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-7

page 4 

 I-  thru M
-
Infinite Series N/P 2d (9)13c(10) Tiznow/ Quality Road
Instant Coffee rf 23b,13c(10) Bolt D'Oro/ Uncle MO
Its Bobs Business(MN)rf 9b(11)13c(9)Bolt D')Oro/Bellamy Road
Jaces Road 1c,13c(14)Quality Road/ Silver Deputy
Jackstown  11c, 9b (10) Speightstown/ Mda Doro 
Jewel Shillelagh 1L,13c(10)City Of Light/ Tapit
John Valdez 8k. Gold Medal/ Distorted Humor $900,000
Judo 26, Street Sense/Tapit my
Kingfish Stevens 1L,13c(10)4m(7) Candy Ride/Tapit
Lachaise 4k,13c(8) 2d(7)Oscar Performance/Elusive Quality (T)
Laver 7,3L (7),13c (9)4m (6) Bernardini/Smart strike
Le Griffon 1L,RF, Treasure Beach/ HenrytheNavigator(T)*
Line Of Sight 14c,4m(9)13c(6)Gun Runner/Unbridleds Song  2^ 525,000
Loggins 1e, 23b(6)Ghostzapper/Blame 1^
Lost Ark rf 4d,(13 blue type)13c(8) Violence/ AP Indy
Magnificent Mile 42, Quality Road/ Malibu Moon $800,000
Malibu Coast 1l,1x(10)2s(8)13c(8) Malibu Moon/ More Than Ready
Mardukas 3d,rf, 13c (6)Always Dreaming/ Pulpit
Memphis   P/N  rf, 17b (13)13c(7)4m(7)Gun Runner/ Tiznow 1^  850,000
Mercante 9f,16a(7) Gun Runner/ Honour And Glory 1^
MnEnroe 2d (11)13c (7), Justify/ Street Cry
Mo Strike 16h, Uncle Mo/ Smart Strike 
Mogul Crack 21a Dist. Humor/Empire Maker
Mullion  5j, 23b(7)Into Mischief/Empire Maker
Momad 2s Nyquist/Elusive Quality 
Morethanreadyeddie 10a,1x(9) Mtr/Unbridleds Song
Mount Mercou 8g,23b (7)13c (6) rf, Into Mischief/Seeking The Gold
Must Be The Money 8h,13c (8)1x(7)Paynter/Congrats  0^
-
  • Edited October 22, 2022 10:47 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-7

page 5 N-P

-

National Treasure 4c,13c(13)Quality Road/Meda D'oro
Newgate 3c Into Mischief /Majestic Warrior
Noble Huntsman rf a48,P/N Noble Mission/ Colonel John (T)
Not Normal 3g,13c (10)Mendelssohn / Elusive Quality
Now And Later 1g,13c (7)4m(7) Candy Ride/Arch 
Nuclear 9f,rf,Justify/Latent Heat    1.55 m   
Nullarbor 1n(9),13c (10) Candy Ride/ Dist. Humor  $500,000
Omnipresent 1e, Justify/ Ivan Denisovich (T)
Our Dream Rye'd 1x(16)13c(6) MTR/Bernardini ( T)
Oxford Union 3L Union Rags/ Smart Strike
Oxymore rf 23b (9) 13c(6) Astern(Aus)/Empire Maker (T)
Packs a Wahlop rf, 13a Creative Cause/City Zip
Paddington 8h,Curlin /Pulpit
Pensacola 12c (10) RF, Into Mischief/Midshipman  $600,00
Perform 23b(9)12c(7)Good Magic/Tale Of Ekati
Peregrino 4m Curlin/Giants Causeway
Philharmonic 1e,23b(9) Mendelssohn/Smart Strike (T)
Poulin In O T, rf, A4,5f(7)Reload/ Dance Brightly
Powerful 8c (15) Nyquist/ Pulpit
Prairie Hawk 1c Curlin/ Indian Charlie
Professor Higgins 9,2d(8)Oscar Performance/More Than Ready(T)
Pulpmaster 17b,Cross Traffic/ Pulpit
-
  • Edited September 16, 2022 12:24 am  by  smartyslew
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