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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 171598 views.
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Sep-14

Still find it hard to believe that Cave Rock's 2nd race scores a lower number than the first, especially with the competition in the second.  But I suppose coming up with those numbers are above my pay grade :)

As DM is the only track I visit in person each year, and having seen the races of the top colts listed, my eyes tell me they are special, and definitely worth following.  I'll be very interested in who races at Santa Anita American Pharoah Stakes on Oct. 8th.....

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-14

Edlt-The Winner #5 Curly Jack was one of the 4 on our list I said The winner will come from
Damons Mound and Echo Again Speed dual and tired, Jaces Road on our list finished 3rd.
Iroquois Saturday Churchill Downs starts the points preps for the Tc trail.
I don't know the odds yet. #3 Damon's Mound I really like his races for stretching out and I think
the first 4 listed in speed and Prime Power 3-9-5-6,have class over the other 5 and the winner is probably one of them
Numbers 3-5-6-9-8 are on our list, time to start sorting them out. Also I like #9 Echo Again. 3 or 9
will be the top 2 favorites and imo they have the best pedigrees for the classic Distance .
They will have to proof it on the track. If you play Exotics I think the 3 and 9 should be on your ticket.
edit I will put a win Wager on #3 Damon's Mound.
--
None raced the distance 8.5 f, Raced 8f #1 Hayes Strike 1.39.4 76 bris ,#7 Honed 1.39.2  69 bris,
Speed last race :
99 Echo Again 93 Damon's Mound 93 Curly Jack 1st 90Jace's Road 82 -3rd Jin Tong 80 Confidence Game 76 Hayes Strike 68 Honed 63 Zaic
---
Early last :
106 Damon's Mound 105 Curly Jack 103-1st Zaici 100Jace's Road 98-3rdJin Tong 98 Confidence Game 94 Echo Again 69 Honed 68 Hayes Strike
------
Late last:
102 Echo Again 89 Hayes Strike 84Jace's Road 82-3rd Damon's Mound 81 Curly Jack 78-1stJin Tong 77 Honed 76 Confidence Game 42 Zaic
--
9th race :
 Churchill Downs - Saturday, September 17th, 2022
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $300,000. Iroquois S. (Grade 3). FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. (04:55 PM) (9)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Hayes Strike E4   4th 2 C 122 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph McPeek Kenneth G.  homebred
2 Zaici  E5 2 R 122 Cohen David Courville Ricky
3 Damon's Mound P6 2 C 122 Saez Gabriel Lovell Michelle   homebred
4 Jin TongS4 2 C 122 Bejarano Rafael O'Neill Doug F.
5 Curly Jack EP8   1st 2 C 122 Morales Edgar Amoss Thomas M.
6 Jace's Road EP6   3rd
...[Message truncated]
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  • Edited September 18, 2022 11:40 am  by  smartyslew
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Sep-15

I'm expecting Echo Again to run huge and be the favorite for the BC Juvy.....

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-15

Its only September we have a long way to go, when a 2 yr old starts stretching out ,I look for speed numbers

to compare to their sprints , most two turn types speed numbers stretching out equal or are better than there sprint numbers

of course there are exceptions to that and by the time March rolls around we will have a better idea. Its something 

I look at and note for all 2 yr olds I'm Interested in. Its easy to look at and doesn't take much time,.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-15

I don't know if he is that good yet, Many good looking prospects this early, I am a big Gun Runner fan,

Damon's Mound is another good looking prospect in this race I like a lot. Beta Bob in his 2 year old talk 

this week mentioned him at the top of 2 yr olds owned by somebody else that look real good. 

I see some gurus pick #6 Jaces Road , Quality Road/Silver Deputy :  Geroux/ Cox as the value of the Single digit

horse's , 6-1, L don't know where they got that number from..

  • Edited September 15, 2022 4:22 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-15

Edit My top Pick #4 Shoplifter finished 2nd to the Winner Fun And Fiesty, #5 Grand Love Finished 3rd.
I got Money Back I decided Across The Board on Shoplifter.
 
--
Field of 12, I picked 5 out who look like 2 turn prospects or Route Runners,
Justa Warrior The Favorite #11 4-1 by Justify Jockey is Suspect stalked 3 wide, 5 wide top of the stretch
Got up and won on her own @7f ....drew post 11 and I like Her here in my Exotics, I love Justify fillys
can't bet the Win in this spot. # 5 Grand Love 9-2, GunRunner I'll use, #9 Jet Setting 8-1, # 4 Shoplifter 15-1
Has the best pedigree for later , and I can't leave her off my ticket, # 8 Need Some Money 20-1, looks like a Router.
I'm Not Familiar with Her Trainer, She won a mile race in Her last at Ellis.
Ill play these 5 in my exotics from a field of 12, Is That 41,7% of the field, If you like to spread out
underneath use 10, 12 an Arrogate in a bad PP, 7,  #3 Naughty Gal I'm Leaving off, last 3 races going 
in the wrong direction. 10 entrants are E and EP types. # 8 is a S 0, #10 P5
Edit :I like the value of #4 Shoplifter 15-1 , $20 Win
-------
Back Speed : 86 Naughty Gal 86 Shoplifter 83-2nd Justa Warrior 79 Southlawn 77Jet Setting 
76 Outofnothingatall 75 Friendlypersuasion 74 Kiss Me On Oconee 73 Need Some Money
-
Speed Last :88 Grand Love -3rd87 Fun and Feisty-1st 83Justa Warrior 79 Southlawn 77Jet Setting 76 Outofnothingatall 75 Shoplifter-2nd 75 Friendlypersuasion 73 Kiss Me On Oconee 73 Need Some Money 70 Boss Lady Bailey 59 Naughty Gal
-
11th race- Churchill Downs - Saturday, September 17th, 2022 G3, 12 entrants
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $300,000. Pocahontas S. (Grade 3). FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD. (05:58 PM) (12)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Boss Lady Bailey EP6      4th 2 F 122 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph Ortiz John Alexander  12-1
2 Kiss Me On Oconee E4 2 F 122 Morales Edgar Amoss Thomas M.  20-1
3 Naughty Gal  E8 2 F 122 Santana, Jr. Ricardo Lukas D. Wayne  5-1
4x
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  • Edited September 18, 2022 12:38 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-16

Four 2 year olds on the list are Racing Today. 

Churchill Downs Race 3 :ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $100,000, 7F Dirt, 2 year olds, 2 from our list

  #2 Judo 2-1 ML favorite , #5 XY Point  5-2,  Field of 6

Edit Judo 2nd, XYPoint 3rd finished 9 1/4 behind the runaway Winner Frosted Departure(well Named) 7fr in 1.22.67
put Frosted Departure on your watch list.  Frosted/ More Than Ready nick.

-----------------------------------
Edit Signator finished second and closed nicely after being bumped hard at the start
Unknown Agenda backed Up from dirt being thrown in his face.

https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=BAQ&raceDate=09/16/2022&cy=USA&rn=1

Belomont At The Big A::MSW 6f Dirt  race 1: #3 Unknown  Agenda 9-5, , #4 Signator  4-1 , 1.7 mil
Both firsters High pricers watch to see how they do sprinting, but are Projected Classic Distance types.
--

  • Edited September 16, 2022 6:26 pm  by  smartyslew
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Sep-16

I liked Signator's stretch run as he closed on the winner.....could be a good one stretching out

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-16

That's Shug's 1.7 mil Colt ,who was bumped hard coming out of the gate and the field got an Handicap lead 

over him. imo  .He had some good splits that suggest he was the best in this 6f start.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Sep-16

Agreed.....and not a bad thing that Rosario showed interest in riding.  Hope he finds a race two turns for his next

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