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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 169695 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-26

Gun Runner's 5   stakes Winners in one day and 2 others ITM Saturday 9/24/22
It must make History of some kind dontcha think. 5 hour span time.
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Taiba 1st $1,000,000  Grade 1 Penn. Derby   6:12
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Society(f) 1st $1,000,000  Grade 1 Cotillion   5.32
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Gunite 1st  $275,000 Harrods Creek Stakes  9.40
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Echo Zulu 1st  $275,000 Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes   10:12
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Sixtythreecaliber 1st $160,000 Seneca Over Night Stakes  9:06
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Cyberknife  3rd $1,000,000 Grade 1 Penn Derby  6:12
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Runninsonofagun 3rd $300,000 Grade 2 Gallant Bob Stakes  4:55
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-28

Edit # 5 Tres Soles By Justify won by neck#9 Reagan 2nd, 3rd Mackman  1.10.62
9/29/22 Churchill Downs  race 6 : MSW 2 year olds 6f Dirt  12 entrants +2 AE
Well bred Prospects  in This race I haven't covered and one I have covered #2
I'm sure I will add at least one to our list or more after the race. Roy H full brother Devils Red. on the list
#2Devils Red rf 13e,1x(15)13c(8)2d(7)More Than Ready/Elusive Quality 1^  8-1
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Check out the sires and the Nicks on paper a lot to like, Interesting to see the Outcome
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1 - Uncle Mo Meadow Breeze , by Meadowlake ; 2 - More Than Ready Elusive Diva , by Elusive Quality ; 3 - Tale of Verve Not Java (FR) , by Not Bourbon ; 4 - Tapwrit Bern Obsession , by Bernstein ; 5 - Justify Chocolate Souffle , by Tapit ; 6 - Candy Ride (ARG) Chiffon , by Malibu Moon ; 7 - Flatter Ire , by Political Force ; 8 - Gun Runner She's All Scat , by Scat Daddy ; 9 - Accelerate History Supreme , by Speightstown ; 10 - West Coast Its a Date , by Dominus ; 11 - Union Rags Silverpocketsfull , by Indian Charlie ; 12 - Gun Runner Sapucai , by Indian Charlie ; 13 - Bee Jersey Ruth's Proof , by Dixie Union 
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-29

Rich Strike is the only 3 year old in this race G2 , 2 4c,2 5H, 1 6H See How he does against elders. 2nd
I Like Art Collector for the win, Happy Saver for 2nd, I don't have the odds yet.
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# FAVORITES Races 47 Win% 43% ITM% 87% $2ROI -0.24 Average Field Size 7.4 Median $2 Win Payoff $6.60 % Winners < 5/1 83% % Winners >=5/1 < 10/1 11% % Winners > 10/1 6% Track Bias Stat
Winner was the Favorite  HoT Rod Charley pd $4.66
PAR: 103, Happy Saver 110, Hot Rod Charlie 110-1ST, Rich Strike 104, 2nd.
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10 th  Churchill Downs - Saturday, October 1st, 2022
STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Purse $500,000. Lukas Classic S. (Grade 2). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. (05:26 PM) (6)
PP Horse A/S Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 King Fury P2       Dis  4 0 - 1 - 1 4 C 121 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph  1 g3 win McPeek Kenneth G.  14% gr winner
2 Art Collector E7     Dis 8- 7 - 0 - 0  5 H 125 Saez Luis     3g wins 1-1,2-2 Mott William I. 18% gr winner
3 Happy Saver  P3     Dis  4 -2 - 2 - 0 5 H 121 Velazquez John R.  Life: 11- 5 - 5 - 1 , 1g win, 5 g 2nd Pletcher Todd A.16% gr winneer
4 Rich Strike  S 0    CD 2- 2 - 0 - 0 , L free 3 C 122 Leon Sonny  1 g1 win Reed Eric R.  1-5 gr races
5 Hot Rod Charlie    E6  Dis  3- 1 - 0 - 1 4 C 125 Gaffalione Tyler   3 g wins O'Neill Doug F. 6% gr. winner
6 Chess Chief  P3     CD 12- 0 - 2 - 1 6 H 121 Gutierrez Reylu  0 g wins Stewart Dallas  6% gr winner
 
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back speed :110 Art Collector 110 Happy Saver 110 Hot Rod Charlie-1st 104 Rich Strike -2nd95 Chess Chief 90 King Fury
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Speed Last Race:110 Happy Saver 110 Hot Rod Charlie-WON 104 Rich Strike  2ND 96 Art Collector 90 King Fury 88 Chess Chief
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-29

6 well bred 2 year old entrants, None have raced at A, None have raced a Route Race,2-4-5-6 raced 7f
4 are on our list 1 Andiamo A Firenze, 3 Verifying ,4 Champions Dream, 5 Blazing Sevens,

Watch their replays, I like the looks of the 2 Justify's #3 Verifying and # 4 Champions Dream especially him

I like his action beautiful rhythm in his only race 7f. Edit Results

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10th race Belmont At The Big A - Saturday, October 1st, 2022, 

STAKES. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse $500,000. Champagne S. (Grade 1). FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. (05:45 PM) (6)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1x Andiamo A Firenzerf, 2f, (10) Speightstown / Langfuhr  4th. 2 C 122 Lezcano Jose Breen Kelly J.     6-1
2 Top Recruit  2n Midshipman/ Afleet Alex 2 C 122 Ortiz, Jr. Irad Maker Michael J.  5-1
3x Verifying 21 Justify/ Repent  775,000  2nd 2 C 122 Rosario Joel Cox Brad H.    9-5
4x Champions Dream rf, 7a,2f(10)8c(6)Justify/Tapit 2 C 122 Franco Manuel Gargan Danny  5-1
5x Blazing Sevens   4j (8) Good Magic/ Warriors Reward  WON 1st 2 C 122 Prat Flavien Brown Chad C.  8-1
6 Gulfport  4-e} DP = 2-12-2-0-0 (16) DI = 15.00   CD = 1.00 ,Sprinter  3rd 2 C 122 Ortiz Jose L. Asmussen Steven M  2-1

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  • Edited October 5, 2022 12:31 am  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-29

Races with Justify running in them and other 1st crop  sires of interest.
9/29/22
Churchill Downs 
Race 6 #5  Tres Soles  4-1 WON 5.22 3.98 3.08,   6f 1.10.62
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9/30/22
Churchill Downs 
Race 7  #4 Justifying   3-1: 2nd Place  PL 4.96 SH  3.92
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10/1/22
At The Big A 
Race 2 : #5 Justifiable Belle     7-2  5th tired
Race 8  #5 I'm Just Kidding  20-1  5th
Race 10 #3 Verifying 2-1 2nd. ,#4 Champions Dream 8.5 -1
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Churchill
Race 5: #1 O Gangster  100-1   7th
Race 7: #10 Pappy Wolfe  62-1  9th
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10/2/22
Churchill
Race 7 : #6 Alpha Bella  4-1   2nd.  
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Longchamp
Race 2 : 1 Mile Turf g1  Stks
#3 Aspen Grove(IRE) f   12-1 Justify/ More Than Ready   7th
Won last 66-1. Unbeaten Frankel in the race.
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  • Edited October 5, 2022 12:56 am  by  smartyslew
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Sep-30

Justify colt ran well in the MSW at CD yesterday. Roy H’s full brother was disappointing! The two highly touted MTR’s; Don Corleone and Devils Red, have run poorly in their debuts. Hopefully they’ll do better next time out.

  • Edited September 30, 2022 1:49 pm  by  RAESFAN
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-1

Devils Red the chart said he was playing bumper cars and I couldn't find, the Video wasn't very good.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Oct-1

I saw that. Don’t know if that could explain his listless performance. Hope he gets another shot on the dirt!

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Oct-1

Blazing Sevens looked great, could have won by more......handled the slop just fine, won the race his father placed in.  Had a feeling about him, liked how he was training, hit the exacta too.  Will be one of the faves in the Juvy....

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Oct-1

Watch the race over.....Champions Dream was hit hard at break by Blazing, and the same horse moved out on him in the stretch, completely taking away his momentum.  Franco did a great job of slowing him down at that point, finishing without pushing him.  The liner notes may not display the trouble, but I would look for him to come back at a price in a month or so.

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