From Message 1573 Withers I'll correct the Post Positions. #3 Jungfrau is added to the field
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On Our 3 yr old List racing in This points race 1 Arctic Arrogance, 4 Hit Show,  20-8-6-4-2 pts Hit Show WON Earned 20 Pts, Arctic Arrogance 2nd 8 Pts, General Banker 3rd 6 Pts
---
Hit Show Raced with Lasix in last, see if it gives a boost in numbers this race, like Cox

2/11/23 For 3 yr olds I have looked at a few and Some 3's will be added to our list
after the race is over, mainly AW types with nice Marraiges and some from Deep Pockets
Turfway Park - Saturday, February 11th, 2023 Race 7

Gave my thoughts on the sam davis here.  Waiting on possible rain, and fact that this is a very competitive race, makes it non-playable.

Any time a favorite is at as low odds makes it a race that longshot players would be attacted to esp.if you think he is over valued.   I think he is pretty competitive but not sure about at 9/5.

http://forums.delphiforums.com/horse_racing/messages?msg=2315.1

 

I haven't even looked at the Odds, if it Rains Duby has good off numbers

and Prairie Hawk also horse for the course.

Oh Duby is the Fav 9-5 . Value should come from the others IMO

but Duby will be tough. 

Hit Show and Arctic Arrogance are entered in the Withers today

and the only 2 from the Withers in Pool 4 Future bets. Edit Hit Show 1st Arctic 2nd.

Message 1604 is pool 4 Future Bets entrants  for my Futures  Player friends, without the odds,
Last year the first 4 finishers raced Lasix free 2 yr old thru the TC trail, This year more
Trainers are using L in Non point races and we will see how many non L make the derby field.
Compare their non L races to the L races to determine the spread if any.

The N on the right side are contenders with the Sire/ Bms nick that has won previous Derby"s
If a horse you like doesn't have a N along side it the Sire Line/ Bms Line has never won a Derby.
That doesn't mean it can't, One way to look at that is to see how many in the group of 20 doesn't
have a Winning derby nick, the more in the field will help its chances, Because of success There are
Usually More entered with a winning nick. In this pool 24 do and 15 don't. Only one Winner a year.

Another angle I like To use I must pick a Horse with at least 1 Stamina Chef within the first 5 generations
Going back 85 years less than 3 % winners didn't have a stam Chef within 5 generations and Because
of the window of time you can't go back further than that, because  not enough stamina Chefs
to make a difference. Of course it isn't a lock, a percentage play. You can bet more than one horse to cover.

The El Camino Real Winner isn't Nominated, not in this pool, the Other 2 points race Winners Today are.

One other angle I forgot, We have never had a Derby winner with the Nearctic, Northern Dancer Sire line

Married to a Nasrullah Sire Line BMS, never, is this the Year. NO Nor dancer/ API or his sons

Not even Nor Dan / Seattle Slew ,or Bold Ruler Line, Or Nashua line.

Lets Turn it Over Nyquist is the only Derby Winner with a Sire line bred to Northern Dancer BMS line

That traces back to Nasrullah thru Uncle Mo, Caro , Grey Sovereign Son of Nasrullah, thats right I didn't

Bet him either . Forestry Is Nyquist's BMSire Son of Storm Cat.
---------