Latest 12:45 AM by SameSteve G
Latest Oct-2 by bisket513
Latest Oct-2 by Wintertrian
Latest Oct-2 by Wintertrian
Latest Oct-2 by PISTOL9
Latest Oct-2 by smartyslew
Latest Oct-2 by SameSteve G
Latest Oct-1 by bisket513
Latest Sep-30 by smartyslew
Latest Sep-30 by SameSteve G
Latest Sep-30 by Wintertrian
Latest Sep-25 by Wintertrian
Latest Sep-23 by Wintertrian
Latest Sep-23 by smartyslew
Latest Sep-23 by smartyslew
Latest Sep-21 by Wintertrian
Latest Sep-20 by SameSteve G
Latest Sep-19 by Gerh
Latest Sep-14 by DogsUpWired
Latest Sep-11 by SameSteve G
Latest Sep-11 by PISTOL9
Latest Sep-9 by Wintertrian
Latest Sep-4 by TexSquared
Latest Sep-3 by smartyslew
From Message 1573 Withers I'll correct the Post Positions. #3 Jungfrau is added to the field
On Our 3 yr old List racing in This points race 1 Arctic Arrogance, 4 Hit Show, 20-8-6-4-2 pts Hit Show WON Earned 20 Pts, Arctic Arrogance 2nd 8 Pts, General Banker 3rd 6 Pts
Hit Show Raced with Lasix in last, see if it gives a boost in numbers this race, like Cox
|STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Purse $250,000. Withers S. (Grade 3). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. (03:44 PM) (6)|
|PP||Horse||A/S||M/E||Wgt||Jockey||Trainer runup last|
|6||Ninetyprcentmaddie EP8||3 C||120||Adorno Abner||Reid, Jr. Robert E. 24ft no route race|
|5||General Banker EP5||3 C||118||Cancel Eric||Ferraro James W. 52ft*|
|1x||Arctic Arrogance E 8||3 C||118||Lezcano Jose||Rice Linda 52ft*|
|7||Andiamo A Firenze E6||3 C||118||Carmouche Kendrick||Breen Kelly J. 52 ft*|
|4x||Hit Show P4||3 C||118||Franco Manuel||Cox Brad L in last 60ft|
|2||Prove Right EP6||3 C|
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $250,000. Sam F. Davis S. (Grade 3). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. )
^ stam Chefs in 5 generations
|PP||Horse Runup Last||A/S||M/E||Wgt||Jockey||Trainer|
|1||Worthington EP7 1st dirt race 85 ft rail 7 ft T 87-S 3rd||3 C||122||Morales Pablo ^1||Maker Michael J.|
|2||Prairie Hawk EP 7 L+11 92 24 ft 92 OC 1 40 1st||3 C||120||Camacho Samy ^1||Joseph, Jr. Saffie A.|
|3||Classic LegacyEP4 60ft 91 Mdn 7f Sys 1st||3 C||120||Alvarado Junior ^2||Mott William I.|
|4||Laver EP6 5 ft 87 S 8f 5th||3 C||120||Morelos Jose E.^1||Arnold, II George R.|
|5||Groveland EP6 2nd PLACE 24ft 90 OC 1 40 2nd||3 C||120||Centeno Daniel ^2||Harty Eoin G.|
|6||Classic Car Wash EP6 L88(AW)-2 3RD 40ft 88 non1 170 2nd -aw||3 G||120||Jaramillo Emisael ^4||Casse Mark E.|
2/11/23 For 3 yr olds I have looked at a few and Some 3's will be added to our list
after the race is over, mainly AW types with nice Marraiges and some from Deep Pockets
Turfway Park - Saturday, February 11th, 2023 Race 7
|ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. 1 Mile Synthetic. Purse $74,000. Not Considered In Allowances). (08:55 PM) (12)|
|1||Eye Witness||3 C||L||122||Corrales Gerardo||Ward Wesley A.|
|2||Miranda Rights||3 C||L||122||Hernandez Rafael Manuel||Casse Mark E.|
|3||Huntertown||3 C||L||118||Peterson Ferrin||Hernandez Rey|
|4||Clear The Air||3 C||L||118||Gilligan Jack||Walden William|
|5||Mendel's Secret||3 C||L||122||Talamo Joseph||Maker Michael J.|
|6||First Strike||3 C||L||122||Ramos Joseph D.||Lobo Paulo H.|
|7||Ballesteros||3 C||b||122||Cannon Declan||Delgado Gustavo|
|8||Wadsworth||3 G||L||122||Landeros Chris||Cox Brad H.|
|9||Storm Daddy||3 G||L||118||Bermudez Samuel E.||Elliott Michelle L.|
|10||Saturn Boy||3 C||L||122||De La Cruz Fernando||Davis Joseph D.|
|11||Phantom Ride||3 C|
Gave my thoughts on the sam davis here. Waiting on possible rain, and fact that this is a very competitive race, makes it non-playable.
Any time a favorite is at as low odds makes it a race that longshot players would be attacted to esp.if you think he is over valued. I think he is pretty competitive but not sure about at 9/5.
I haven't even looked at the Odds, if it Rains Duby has good off numbers
and Prairie Hawk also horse for the course.
Oh Duby is the Fav 9-5 . Value should come from the others IMO
but Duby will be tough.
Hit Show and Arctic Arrogance are entered in the Withers today
and the only 2 from the Withers in Pool 4 Future bets. Edit Hit Show 1st Arctic 2nd.
|L||Angel Of Empire 86-S,76 L,68, 69 L ^0||3 C||126||Cox Brad H. Fapp/Api N|
|Arctic Arrogance 94-S,99Sys-G2,90,79,90Mys ^1||3 C||126||Rice Linda Tapit/Caro|
|L||Banishing 96L MDN,78MDN ^0||3 C||126||Walsh Brendan P. Nor Dan/Api|
|Blazing Sevens 94 G1,86-Sys G1,84 Sys G1, 87MDN ^1||3 C||126||Brown Chad C. Curlin/ Mda D'oro N|
|Confidence Game 92 OC,82 OC,75 G3,80Mdn,71 MDN ^3||3 C||126||Desormeaux Keith Candy Ride/Bernardinji N|
|Curly Jack 82 G3,86 G1,86 G3,93 S,85 G3, 86MDN ^2||3 C||126||Amoss Thomas M. Curlin/ Mr P N|
|L||Cyclone Mischief 80G3,99 LOC,81 G2,77 MDN,84MDN ^0||3 C||126||Romans Dale IntoM/Bernardini|
|L||Determinedly 93L Oc,89 S,94MDN 7f,94 MDN 7f, ^0||3 C||126||Casse Mark E. Fapp/ Gone West N|
|Disarm 91MDN 7f, 76 MDN 5.5 F ^2||3 C||126|
Message 1604 is pool 4 Future Bets entrants for my Futures Player friends, without the odds,
Last year the first 4 finishers raced Lasix free 2 yr old thru the TC trail, This year more
Trainers are using L in Non point races and we will see how many non L make the derby field.
Compare their non L races to the L races to determine the spread if any.
The N on the right side are contenders with the Sire/ Bms nick that has won previous Derby"s
If a horse you like doesn't have a N along side it the Sire Line/ Bms Line has never won a Derby.
That doesn't mean it can't, One way to look at that is to see how many in the group of 20 doesn't
have a Winning derby nick, the more in the field will help its chances, Because of success There are
Usually More entered with a winning nick. In this pool 24 do and 15 don't. Only one Winner a year.
Another angle I like To use I must pick a Horse with at least 1 Stamina Chef within the first 5 generations
Going back 85 years less than 3 % winners didn't have a stam Chef within 5 generations and Because
of the window of time you can't go back further than that, because not enough stamina Chefs
to make a difference. Of course it isn't a lock, a percentage play. You can bet more than one horse to cover.
The El Camino Real Winner isn't Nominated, not in this pool, the Other 2 points race Winners Today are.
One other angle I forgot, We have never had a Derby winner with the Nearctic, Northern Dancer Sire line
Married to a Nasrullah Sire Line BMS, never, is this the Year. NO Nor dancer/ API or his sons
Not even Nor Dan / Seattle Slew ,or Bold Ruler Line, Or Nashua line.
Lets Turn it Over Nyquist is the only Derby Winner with a Sire line bred to Northern Dancer BMS line
That traces back to Nasrullah thru Uncle Mo, Caro , Grey Sovereign Son of Nasrullah, thats right I didn't
Bet him either . Forestry Is Nyquist's BMSire Son of Storm Cat.