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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 351709 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

2/11/23

Gave my thoughts on the sam davis here.  Waiting on possible rain, and fact that this is a very competitive race, makes it non-playable.

Any time a favorite is at as low odds makes it a race that longshot players would be attacted to esp.if you think he is over valued.   I think he is pretty competitive but not sure about at 9/5.


http://forums.delphiforums.com/horse_racing/messages?msg=2315.1

 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/11/23

I haven't even looked at the Odds, if it Rains Duby has good off numbers

and Prairie Hawk also horse for the course.

Oh Duby is the Fav 9-5 . Value should come from the others IMO

but Duby will be tough. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/11/23

Hit Show and Arctic Arrogance are entered in the Withers today

and the only 2 from the Withers in Pool 4 Future bets. Edit Hit Show 1st Arctic 2nd.

  • Edited February 11, 2023 8:48 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/11/23

Cox 7 with L, 3 without L Instant Coffee, Jaces Road, Victory Formation  WHY
Pletcher 3 with L ,Forte without, Asmussen 3 with, 3 without Disarm, Gulfport-sprinter, Red Route One  WHY
20 Used L. 19 non Lasix use in pool 4, 15 no derby nick, 10 no stam chef in 5gen
Sent: Tuesday, February 7, 2023 at 03:42:27 PM PST
Subject: derby pool 4 futures, Bris  speed numbers last race to 1st with L when using Lasix, no turf races
L=Lasix, N= past Derby Nick,   ^ = Number of Stamina chefs within 5 generations
 
L Angel Of Empire  86-S,76 L,68, 69 L      ^0 3 C 126 Cox Brad H.  Fapp/Api  N
Arctic Arrogance  94-S,99Sys-G2,90,79,90Mys ^1 3 C 126 Rice Linda  Tapit/Caro
L Banishing               96L MDN,78MDN       ^0 3 C 126 Walsh Brendan P. Nor Dan/Api
Blazing Sevens    94 G1,86-Sys G1,84 Sys G1, 87MDN  ^1 3 C 126 Brown Chad C.  Curlin/ Mda D'oro N
Confidence Game 92 OC,82 OC,75 G3,80Mdn,71 MDN ^3 3 C 126 Desormeaux  Keith   Candy Ride/Bernardinji N
Curly Jack  82 G3,86 G1,86 G3,93 S,85 G3, 86MDN  ^2 3 C 126 Amoss Thomas M. Curlin/ Mr P  N
L Cyclone Mischief  80G3,99 LOC,81 G2,77 MDN,84MDN  ^0 3 C 126 Romans Dale IntoM/Bernardini
L Determinedly 93L Oc,89 S,94MDN 7f,94 MDN 7f,  ^0 3 C 126 Casse Mark E. Fapp/ Gone West  N
Disarm            91MDN 7f, 76 MDN 5.5 F           ^2 3 C 126
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/11/23

Message 1604 is pool 4 Future Bets entrants  for my Futures  Player friends, without the odds,
Last year the first 4 finishers raced Lasix free 2 yr old thru the TC trail, This year more
Trainers are using L in Non point races and we will see how many non L make the derby field.
Compare their non L races to the L races to determine the spread if any.

The N on the right side are contenders with the Sire/ Bms nick that has won previous Derby"s
If a horse you like doesn't have a N along side it the Sire Line/ Bms Line has never won a Derby.
That doesn't mean it can't, One way to look at that is to see how many in the group of 20 doesn't
have a Winning derby nick, the more in the field will help its chances, Because of success There are
Usually More entered with a winning nick. In this pool 24 do and 15 don't. Only one Winner a year.

Another angle I like To use I must pick a Horse with at least 1 Stamina Chef within the first 5 generations
Going back 85 years less than 3 % winners didn't have a stam Chef within 5 generations and Because
of the window of time you can't go back further than that, because  not enough stamina Chefs
to make a difference. Of course it isn't a lock, a percentage play. You can bet more than one horse to cover.

The El Camino Real Winner isn't Nominated, not in this pool, the Other 2 points race Winners Today are.

  • Edited February 11, 2023 10:25 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/11/23

One other angle I forgot, We have never had a Derby winner with the Nearctic, Northern Dancer Sire line

Married to a Nasrullah Sire Line BMS, never, is this the Year. NO Nor dancer/ API or his sons

Not even Nor Dan / Seattle Slew ,or Bold Ruler Line, Or Nashua line.

Lets Turn it Over Nyquist is the only Derby Winner with a Sire line bred to Northern Dancer BMS line

That traces back to Nasrullah thru Uncle Mo, Caro , Grey Sovereign Son of Nasrullah, thats right I didn't

Bet him either . Forestry Is Nyquist's BMSire Son of Storm Cat.
---------

Nor Dancer/ Nasrullah           Nasrullah/ Nor Dancer
 
Banishing                            Shadow Dragon
Cyclone Mischief                  Shoppers Revenge
Hoosier Philly
Instant Coffee
Rocket Can
Two Phils

  • Edited February 12, 2023 12:06 am  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/15/23

First look at the Risen Star Points Race for The Derby Trail, More later
-- 3 entrants non Lasix: 9 Curly Jack, 10 Two Phil's, 13 Victory Formation
Entries On Our List : 4 Determinedly, 5 Harlocap, 8 Tapits Conquest ,9 Curly Jack, 10 Two Phils
13 Victory Information, who is the only entrant on the Beyer Leader Board 90 8f.(OAK)
--------

13th Race Fair Grounds - Saturday, February 18th, 2023, 14 entrants all Colts
STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Purse $400,000. Risen Star S. presented by Lamarque Ford (Grade 2). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.( (14)

PP Horse Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 L Quiet As Midnight P3 122 Nieves Emanuel Chatters Benard
2 L Single Ruler EP4 122 Riquelme Jose Desormeaux J. Keith
3 L Shaq Diesel EP6 122 Beschizza Adam Richards Renaldo
4 L Determinedly  EP8   3 pts 122 Gutierrez Reylu Casse Mark E.
5 L Harlocap  E8 122 Velazquez John R. Asmussen Steven M.
6 L Angel Of EmpireP3   4 pts 122 Saez Luis Cox Brad H. L
7 L Sun Thunder S   4 pts 122 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph McPeek Kenneth G.
8 L Tapit's Conquest EP3 122 Geroux Florent Cox Brad H.  L
9 Curly Jack EP6  L free   17 pts 122 Morales Edgar Amoss Thomas M.
10 Two Phil'sEP2 L free   8pts
...[Message truncated]
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  • Edited February 15, 2023 5:34 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/16/23

3 entrants non Lasix: 9 Curly Jack, 10 Two Phil's, 13 Victory Formation
Entries On Our List : 4 Determinedly, 5 Harlocap, 8 Tapits Conquest ,9 Curly Jack, 10 Two Phils
13 Victory Information who is the only entrant on the Beyer Leader Board 90 8f.(OAK) Bad Post for the Favorite
-----------
 Par Bris Speed 98, Best Speed At Distance : Crupi 87 Buzz Horse L  Longshot for Pletcher
------
13th Race Fair Grounds - Saturday, February 18th, 2023, 14 entrants all Colts
STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Purse $400,000. Risen Star S. presented by Lamarque Ford (Grade 2). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. (06:14 PM) (14)
PP Horse                                                         Runup Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 L Quiet As Midnight P3 No Routes               15 122 Nieves Emanuel Chatters Benard
2 L Single Ruler EP4                                        50 122 Riquelme Jose Desormeaux J. Keith
3 L Shaq Diesel EP6  Claimed 4 times             24 122 Beschizza Adam Richards Renaldo
4 L Determinedly  EP8  3 pts, S                       50 122 Gutierrez Reylu Casse Mark E.
5 L Harlocap  E8                                              85 122 Velazquez John R. Asmussen Steven M.
6 L Angel Of EmpireP3   4pts  longest 8f  S  60 122 Saez Luis Cox Brad H. L
7 L Sun Thunder S      4 pts  g3                      60 122 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph McPeek Kenneth G.
8 L Tapit's Conquest EP3                               50 122
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/16/23

I saw A computer pick for the Risen Star  from a race pace chart algorithm first 5 Harlocap, 13 Victory Formation-2nd

and 4 Determinedly-3rd all front runners and the Buzz Horse Closer #12 Crupi  15-1near the Back

Projects the lead 13-5-4-10-14 on the pace with 13 nipped by the 5 1st ,4 3rd.

how do you see it. or even the pace setup.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

2/17/23

I like that trifecta myself.....

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