This is the first year in the 21st Century I don't Have somebody Picked out In January

They  are off the Trail and most years  I like somebody that were in my top 5, this year

they are off the trail or Pigeon holed  or 10 or more are ahead of them in a stable .

The same for my Belmont prospects..

Arabian Knight Baffert might keep him for the Preakness and Belmont to run Against the Derby Winner !

princeofdoc said...

from the horses who you already know are qualified .

Every year we find out that at least 60% of the horses in the Derby aren't *really* qualified to run 1-1/4 miles, but they do qualify for fulfilling "derby dreams" for their ownership.  

And if one of the top 5 favorites doesn't win, the bettors take to hating the trainer as well as the horse, as we saw in Mine That Bird and Rich Strike.    They are merely abberations, not *real* winners and will forever be seen as imposters.   

*Real Winners* can only come from our very own super-trainers don'tcha know.  

    

Maybe an off the radar horse like the Uncle Mo's  Scoobie Quando  with all that nice German and Irish blood on the female side will make it to one of the big races....... more of a turfer now running on synth.  BMS is full brother to Galileo(IRE) and half-brother to Sea The Stars.  Too late to the party for the KY Derby though. 

I love how you find these off radar types, and yes, it is most of the time too late for the Derby.  We do have exceptions, of course, esp. from Baffert, but generally, to be ready for the Derby, the colts have to start too young.  I'm still baffled at how many try them out in June and July, but I guess the pressure for a foundation is just too great for the Derby-dreamers.

Still, some of the precocious types are possibly served by racing young....and if handled correctly, can win TC races and continue on healthily.  Even the surprises that you mentioned, Rich Strike and MTB, had good foundations and raced well, young.  That's what I look for as a futures bettor....and my top 3 in the rankings all fit.  I am wondering who Arabian Knight and Faustin go to, I'm guessing Yakteen if they're to point to the SA Derby, but not sure they should run against each other.  Forte is back working and should be competitive wherever he is placed.  Cave Rock is the unknown, as he is back to working late, and may have only completed training for one prep.

Actually, I take back what I said in the last post, Winter......Scoobie just may be pointed to those points-giving races!  Just noticed that he won his first time out in a little stakes race, never raced against maidens, then came 2nd to Wadsworth, who is definitely pointed toward the Jeff Ruby if not also the John Battaglia.  Had a bad post and loaded reluctantly, still ran 2nd, could easily improve.  Let's keep a closer eye on that one!

Just got him added for the futures at Circa (I have the personal cell for the manager :)).....he put him up at 275-1.  If he gets entered in the John Battaglia, I'll put a few # on him!

princeofdoc said...

I love how you find these off radar types

It's what I do but thanks for noticing.  I suck at about a gazillion other aspects of horse racing, but being a longshot player I like to ferret out the ones that nobody has on their lists.   I personally don't think he will be ripe for the Derby gate, but maybe preakness, I remember how last year I had figured out Creative Minister, who wasn't on anyone's list and it was only around February----   Just because I saw him in a maiden race and he impressed me.   He had to be supplemented by the time the Preakness came around in May, so of course, that put him on the radar right quick  (which disappointed me since I thought I'd have a little gold mine all to myself).

So, one that fit with that same idea, and didn't see on any lists I thought I'd share is Uncle Mo's  Scoobie Quando 

 

He's a jewel for the BC turf with what you mentioned and 5 or 6 of Northern Dancer Sons strong BMS line

Strong up the middle. 77% 8 generation Female linebreeding from The world for foundation

not many in North America. Motion or Clemente .

smartyslew said...

He's a jewel for the BC turf with what you mentioned and 5 or 6 of Northern Dancer Sons strong BMS line

Strong up the middle. 77% 8 generation Female linebreeding from The world for foundation

not many in North America. Motion or Clemente .

Thank you for this, smartyslew.   I really had no idea what to do with him but I wasn't gonna let him go.   Your suggestions sounds right to me!