Stakes at OP are only races where I don't have to look too much at PPs.  I don't use the Brisnet angles because for my home track I just find them kinda wrong, unless you look further than what they have for figures.    Just knowing that track helps me cap it.  I also just listen to the "telegraphing" that trainers like Cox give out (Zito used to be good at this, too, if you listened----I used to hang on his every word, write it down, then go thru it 5x to *read between the lines*.)  Cox "telegraphed"  pretty clearly, w/out coming out and saying it, that Giant Mischief was only in the race to "see" if he could run a short 2 turn route at all (hence why he didn't enter him in a 1-1/8 stakes the weeeks before that)....he just wanted to see if GM could get 2 turns AT ALL.   (Horse got bet down because Irad, who does not ride at OP and if he were on a burro would have been bet down.)   In Feb and March, Cox and Asmussen are trying out different things with their horses to see where they need to go next....and where they don't need to go.  If you study Cox, he's very "particular" where he runs horses and in what races, he has that part down to a science.  So it matters.   Not as much with other trainers, but with him......100% matters.   So I watch to see how he brings a horse along......that tells me where he is thinking of going next or if he's going to use a differnet horse entirely. 

But.......would appreciate some help with races at Gulfstream this weekend ......anybody play that track a lot?  I need good reasons too, otherwise just giving me names won't help me.   I don't trust the Equibase PPs for any races, if that is all you have at your disposal. 

For instance, Brisnet Running Styles are really OFF.  Like if the horse had a strangle-jockey like Leperoux lets say, in last race, their running style on Brisnet PPs will be totally and utterly wrong.  You have to go back to all their other races to see how the horse runs NATURALLY.   I happen to think that a horse, when not forced to run against their natural style, will do well.   Horses who are forced to do otherwise, never do.  or........it eventually catches up to them.   

Some trainers train for what they know how to do, (i.e. look at Kavod).  I shake my head every time I see him, because I actually love this horse, but the trainer only knows how to train the way he is training Kavod.   He's a claiming trainer, like Diordoro, and always will be one.  

smartyslew said...

Only 3 have used Lasix 7-9-10

I'm glad you are keeping track of these!


 

His last work is 2/18/23 .

You are Amazing WinterTRIAN Love the young ol LB!!

EXCELLENT post, Winter!  I had noticed that about Colebrook and Knicks, and have been a fan since then.  I know it's a real longshot, but I'm putting a few bucks on Scoobie at 300-1!

Heck, I put a few $ on Adam Schenk in the big golf tournament in FL at Arnie's place....at 550-1, and he finished today at -4, in 2nd place!  Miracles can happen!

I see the one I wanted to bet in the last future but forgot about till it was too late.  Well, seeing he is in the Gotham, probably did not miss anything since Gotham runners have not done much.  Only 8f which I think is 2T at AQU.  Just a watch, no picks.

My 2yo horse in the FOY, but not big on him winning the KD, but should do well.  Would not surprise if he does win, just won't bet as fav.  Still maintaining my boycott of GP and won't bet.  Also won't bet SA with pseudo BBs.  Battaglia?  not interested in that either.  

Still biggest weekend for preps thus far.

Yes I think it is 2 turns, I think I had Belmont on My mind .
are you going to share Your secret for the Gotham  Boycott GP hmn.

2 horses on our list raced at Gulfstream 8th race today 9f dirt All Opt CL $75,000 6 entered all on Lasix

Classic Catch Won and Point Proven Finished 3rd.. 1.52.7...

Oh yah ,I like that nick better with Fapp than Curlin.. if I'm right.

I believe the Gotham is a one turn mile race......and you're right, it hasn't produced Derby competitors, but things can change, especially if race is used as a prep for the Wood