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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net
Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 311144 views.
From: smartyslew
Apr-29
Subject: Derby winners influential Sire & Bms percentage
The Sire and Mares with the most blood and up close influence for each Derby Winner
Like Sunday Silence is a Mahmoud N/N dominant horse, Selene N/N mare dominant
with Hyperion & Pharamond, BTW Sunday Silence 2nd Highest Sire is Blue Larkspur
I think these 2 are big Influence in his breeding success, Giacomo is the last derby winner with a NP Sire.
Most of the mares are N/N or N/P Natalma and Gold Digger Have P/sires.Family 9c dominated
Most of the mares are N/N or N/P Natalma and Gold Digger Have P/sires.Family 9c dominated
Pedigrees on both sides and slowed down in the 90's,besides their mares Sires Mahmoud, Nasrullah
Royal Charger were in the mix.
From: smartyslew
Apr-29
see message 2044
Derby winners influential Sire & Mare percentage AGR up close (May not be Sire or Dam of horse)
Yr Horse TFF Sire Mare
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1989 Sunday Silence 3e Mahmoud 9c 11.13 % Selene 6e 6.59 %
1990 UnBridled 1r RoughNTumble1o 11.38% Aspidstra 1r 14.53% rf
1991 Strike the Gold 16c MahMoud 9c 11.02% Mumtaz Mahal 9c 4.41% rf
1992 Lil E Tee 23b Mahmoud 9c 6.98 % Plucky Liege 16a 3.27%
1991 Strike the Gold 16c MahMoud 9c 11.02% Mumtaz Mahal 9c 4.41% rf
1992 Lil E Tee 23b Mahmoud 9c 6.98 % Plucky Liege 16a 3.27%
1993 Sea Hero 1x War Admiral 11g 13.96 % La Troienne 1x 7.55 % rf
1994 Go For Gin 1x Hyperion 6e 9.19% Selene 6e 6.18%
1995 Thunder Gulch 11d Native Dancer5f 10.22% Selene 6e 3.71.
1996 Grindstone 1c Tom Fool 3j 9.52% Aspidstra 1r 8.20%
1996 Grindstone 1c Tom Fool 3j 9.52% Aspidstra 1r 8.20%
1997 Silver Charm 3L War Admiral 11g 12.51% La Troienne 1x 7.44%
1998 Real Quiet 4d Dr Fager 1r 21.94% Cequillo 16a 11.25%
1999 Charismatic 10a Sir Gaylord 2s 20.94% Something Royal 2s 14.71% rf
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 8c Native Dancer5f 16.75 % Almahmoud 2d 8.29%
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 8c Native Dancer5f 16.75 % Almahmoud 2d 8.29%
2001 Monarchos 4r Nearco 4r 8.79% Nogara 4r 4.10%
2002 War Emblem 20b Teddy 2n 7.36% Selene 6e 4.20
2003 Funny Cide 6d Nasrullah 9c 8.84 % Mumtaz Begum 9c 4.54%
2004 Smarty Jones 1x Bold Ruler 8d 12.91% Something Royal 2s 5.88%
2005 Giacomo 2d Mahmoud 9c 7.08% Plucky Liege 16a 4.39%
2006 Barbaro 16h Nashua 3m 13.44% Mumtaz Begum 9c 5.20%
2006 Barbaro 16h Nashua 3m 13.44% Mumtaz Begum 9c 5.20%
2007 Street Sense 22d Native Dancer 5f 9.94% Natalma 2d rf 13.49%
2008 Big Brown 5h Northern Dan 2d 27.59% Selene 6e 6.54%
2009 Mine That Bird 23b Mr Prospector 13c 18.31 % Track Medal A4 5.37%
2010
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- Edited April 29, 2023 10:40 pm by smartyslew
From: smartyslew
Apr-29
2023 contenders ---------Top blood % Sire in Pedigree------ Top Blood % Mare in Pedigree
1 Forte 1x Storm Cat 8c 16.64 % Special 5h rf 4.93%
2 Practical Move 2f Hail To Reason 4n 7.81% Almahmoud 2d 2.15%
3 Angel Of Empire 26 Mr Prospector 13c 14.70% Alanesian 4m 2.54% P
4 Tapit Trice 19b Unbridled 1r 22.00% Something Royal 2s 4.69%
4 Tapit Trice 19b Unbridled 1r 22.00% Something Royal 2s 4.69%
5 Two Phils 16h Danzig 7a 31.86% Banquet Belle 16h 6.85% P
7 Derma Sotogake 12 Deputy Minister 10a 10.07% Mumtaz Begum 9c 3.52%
8 KingsBarns 3 Mr Prospector 13c 13.82% Mumtaz Begum 9c 2.34%
9 Raise Cain 14c rf Mr Prospector 13c 15.49% Something Royal 2s 5.08%
10 Rocket Can A5 Northern Dancer 2d 10.06% Foggy Note 3o 3.83%
11 Hit Show A1 Fappiano 16a 12.10% Alanesian 4m 8.54% P
12Confidence Game 4r Fappiano 16a 11.22% Alanesian 4m 8.45% P
13 Verifying 21 Mr Prospector 13c 10.55%* Narrate 2f 6.47 % * 4 daughters P
14 Sun Thunder 22d Northern Dancer 2d 11.17% Something Royal 2s 4.49%
15 Wild On Ice 23b Wild Again 3e 19.62% Something Royal 2s 4.79%
16 Mage 5g Mr Prospector 13c 19.11 % Almahmoud 2d 4.30%
17 Blazing Sevens
18 Disarm 26 Fappiano 16a 12.12% Alanesian 4m 3.91% P
19 Reincarnate 7e Mr Prospector 13c 19.10% Something Royal 2s 1.76%
20 Continuar 8f Nureyev 5h 14.56% Sex Appeal 8f rf 7.91 % P
21 Jaces Road 1c Mr Prospector 13c 16.94 % Something Royal 2s 4.10 %
22 Skinner 9e Mr Prospector 13c 24.23% Something Royal 2s 3.71%
23 Cyclone Mischief 9b Northern Dancer 2d 9.36% Something Royal 2s 5.27%
24 Major Dude 6a AP Indy 3L 27.13% Something Rotal 2s 5.47%
25 Mandarin Hero 2d Halo 2d 10.01 % Almahmoud 2d 2.83%
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- Edited May 4, 2023 1:40 am by smartyslew
From: smartyslew
Apr-30
Message 2046 Look for The Tail Female Family for each horse and look at the female list
in the derby Winners 8 gen female linebreeding list. Lots of Mr P's in here.
From: smartyslew
Apr-30
Horses that might take dirt ok in their face, Fighters
Angel Of Empire
Confidence Game
Disarm
Forte
Mage
Mandarin Hero
Raise Cain
Sun Thunder
Tapit Trice
Two Phils In his dirt races yes. Best number on aw Dirt free dirt race for him on the lead.
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- Edited April 30, 2023 9:15 am by smartyslew
From: smartyslew
Apr-30
Here is an angle I have used and I don't think I posted it on here very often if at all.
From: Oldbettowin
Apr-30
Do we use $250,000 for Kingsbarns since that was his yearling price like everyone else?
From: smartyslew
May-1
Sires Speed, Mares Stamina
Family 4r BMS To Honor And Serve and 2nd Dams Sire Carson City 4r
and Miswaki 16g Have the same Haplotypes , Plus Miswaki is in the sire side
in a PP for Sire Classic Empire stand alone pedigree.
Miswaki BMS of Galileo whose Dam Hopespringseternal by Buckpasser/ Princequillo
up the middle in a Passing Position is powerful and on the Sire side in that position spotted
up the middle in a Passing Position is powerful and on the Sire side in that position spotted
Potential is huge .Top Contender to carry 126 pounds in MAY IMO. Trumps DI, CD 1.20 is a concern
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Conduit Mare Profile = 6-4-6-11-3 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.96 Triads = 16-21-20 STAMINA, Turn Of foot
Family Summary In 5 generations: A1 (2), 1-r (2), 1-w (1), 2-n (1), 3-l (2), 4-r (7), 4-j (1), 4-m (8), 5-i (1), 6-d (3), 8-f (2), 8-c (2), 9-c (1), 10-c (1), 10-a (2), 12-e (1), 13-b (3), 13-c (3), 16-g (3), 16-a (2), 19-c (2), 21-a (4), 22-d (1), 26 (6),
ANGEL OF EMPIRE C, 26(6)4m(8)4r(7) Odds to be 4th Derby Winner without a stam Chef in 5 gen. Good
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