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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 350338 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/1/23

ANGEL OF EMPIRE   (USA) b. C, 2020 {26} DP = 4-4-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.20 - GSV = 47.57 - 6 Starts, 4 Wins, 1 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: $1,069,375
CLASSIC EMPIRE (USA)
b. 2014 (27)
9-5-1-1
$2,520,220
115 f, 3 r, 2 w, 0 SW
AEI 1.31
PIONEEROF THE NILE (USA)
dkb/br. 2006 (27)
10-5-1-1
$1,634,200
811 f, 585 r, 395 w, 48 SW
AEI 1.70
EMPIRE MAKER (USA)
dkb/br. 2000 (40.14)
8-4-3-1
$1,985,800
1286 f, 1040 r, 537 w, 68 SW
AEI 2.25
UNBRIDLED (USA)
b. 1987 [BI] (62.31)
FAPPIANO (USA)   b. 1977 [IC] 16-a
GANA FACIL (USA) ch. 1981 
...[Message truncated]
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Northof64

From: Northof64

5/1/23

Plus Flavian Pratt. Thank you Smarty

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/1/23

My top 10 before the Draw 5/1/23
Confidence Game
Forte
Tapit Trice
Two Phils
Hit Show
Disarm
Reincarnate
Angel Of Empire
Continuar
Skinner
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/1/23

Reincarnate and Verifying are Going, Maybe Derma and KingsBarns

Followed by 2 who Rate and 10  Stalkers who could run into each others 

trying to get position, and not let the closers get by  trying to fit in the only

hole left. I can see this if 6f is 112+ range, The Fla Derby time is suspect again

like last year, Santa Anita fast splits are suspect to compare to other tracks and what, 2 from it are in

Up front the 3 that won at CD are on my ticket. no doubt about it

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

5/1/23

I didn't like Hit Show much prior, and now getting the dreaded #1 post, I would be betting him in my last place tri/super.....I really wish such a bet would be offered :)

Your other top 10 drew pretty well, actually, except for Tapit Trice, and I don't even mind Continuar breaking from the far outside.  Maybe he'll take the same line as last year's #20!

Good luck, Smarty, I'll be playing several of your top 10 in my exactas, tri's and super's!  The only ones I'll be using not in your top 10 will be Practical Move on a few underneath, and Sun Thunder specifically in the 4th position in some supers.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/1/23

Thanks, back at you, a good propisition bet in Vegas to try to get, win from post, 1, 2,3 no matter the gate

its been awhile for a win.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

5/1/23

I'll update Vegas prop bets as I see/hear about them......recognizing that few may get to make such bets, they're still fun to sweat :)

Northof64

From: Northof64

5/1/23

I like those three! Looks like a dry fast track in the forecast so who knows it could be a boring merry go round. If so, it would pay nicely!

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

5/2/23

smartyslew said...

My top 10 before the Draw 5/1/23
 
Confidence Game
Forte
Tapit Trice
Two Phils
Hit Show
Disarm
Reincarnate
Angel Of Empire
Continuar
Skinner

Looks eerily similar to mine (after I did my big Toss of 10 horses the other night).  except Two Phils in his dirt races has lost ground in the stretch in every single dirt route as I went over the PPs. .  Doubt he would be in my trifecta but could run 4th or 5th I guess.  His best races were on sloppy dirt and synth.  Neither of which is happening on Saturday.  But that ground loss in all his dirt races is worrisome to me, it wasn't a lot, but it was there.  I guess if anyone thinks he is Animal Kingdom, Rich Strike or Street Sense, they might play him win.  I don't happen to think he is any of those LOL 

Skinner is not just a closer, but a DEEP closer.  I have trouble seeing him get to the finish line with that kind of running style, given that he doesn't seem to have much tactical speed. 

AOE will not be in my win spot either.  Given the history of FG runners, who I often include in my exotics, but not for the win spot, since only 2 horses have won the Derby from that race.  One from when the race was 1-1/4 (Grindstone) and one back in the early 1900s when the race was only 1-1/8.  

So basically those are 3 that would not be in my WIN spot. 

Interesting that you dont' have Kingsbarns anywhere in your top 10.  Pletcher horses seem to do worse in the KY Derby than they do in their prep races. 

It's also ridiculous that we have 3 Pletchers and 4 Cox horses in the same race.   Like I said that already takes up 35% of the field by just 2 super-trainers.   One reason I dislike this year's KY Derby rendition. 


Hit Show and Confidence Game are still my favs.  I went back over the PPs again and watched the works.  Confidence Game beat both Verifying and Reincarnate (and may have been on the wrong lead in doing so in at least one of those races) .   When he was running in prep races it looks like he wasn't changing leads correctly.   If you watch his latest workout, he's on the correct lead now for sure, so obviously Keith has "corrected" that.   No tricks, no extra equipment, just good training.   While everyone is talking about how he hasn't raced in forever........to me, I say he spent that time WISELY..........training his horse.   The others were busy racing.  I know horses learn by racing, but they often don't correct their problems that way (slow breaking, wrong lead, etc.)  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/2/23

I'm Still Working the data so far I haven't Found a Derby Winner with my data
Probably Exotics Picks,doubles  at this pace no win bet yet To Many with Low Cd's

,

with no speed, suggest not runners with the Package that is required.
Two Phils has had 3 races at 3 yrs old, Last on AW, he lost ground 2 back

Look at 3 back in January , I don't see how you found him losing ground in that race.

he was 4 behind at the 1/2 Call,  1/2 behind at 6f , hd  behind at 8f, finished 2 1/2 at the finish

Started 1st call 2 1/2 behind finished 2 1/2 behind thats ok if you measure it that way
Why not mention how Confidence Game did in that race. 1 behind at the 1st call, 1/2 behind at 1/2
1/2 behind at 6f, 31/2  behind at the stretch as Two Phils passes him Finishes the race 5 1/4 behind
Two Phils finish in 2nd place, 7 3/4 behind Instant Coffee. I chose not to check their 2 yr old races
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You said :"Two Phils in his dirt races has lost ground in the stretch in every single dirt route as I went over the PPs."

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