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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net
From: princeofdoc
May-7
No, I didn't......but I should have. I let my bias against Turfway influence me, as well as the Instant Coffee defeat, as I didn't think that much of that horse. It was stupid. I also thought the move to run in the Jeff Ruby was because it was a simpler route to the Derby (which it was)....but I should have also noticed Major Dude doing well earlier, just like I noted the success of Fort Bragg suggested the importance of the FL Derby in my thread about the Pat Day.
It was an easy super to hit if you liked Mage as much as I did.....and it paid 15K. I had Disarm and Angel on every ticket with Mage.
Sometimes you just beat yourself!
From: smartyslew
May-7
I thought Mage would be special and I really liked his Pedigree and Performance
In the Florida Derby and Bowed my neck Concerns with his Foundation for the win.
And had him in the wrong places for my exotics, and I was way wrong about the win
and I screwed that up and I hope Somebody made money with my angles with Two Phils
He ran a hell of a race. 2.01.77 and change one length behind Mage in 2nd place
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Edit to add Preakness Times 2007 GR Sire Curlin 1st 1.53.46 by hd Street Sense 2nd, SBMS Hard Spun 3rd
- Edited May 20, 2023 11:20 am by smartyslew
From: smartyslew
May-8
Right what do we know, Lol I thought and still do that mage could be special
and bowed my neck , even after that message where both he and Kingsbarns raced
3 times at 3, and others that races at 2yr olds ,only raced twice at 3.
It was the lack of workouts more than anything else before they were 3 .
From: smartyslew
May-26
18 crosses of Nearco big 3 sons listed below with a 5x5 Influence
|
From: smartyslew
May-26
First 5 finishers 2023 Derby Influenced by tff taproot Agnes 16a thru 16g, 16h Message 2127 above
up close influence by Percentage and Generation 3x3, 3x4, 4x4, 4x5 etc
and the scoring went dowqn in order from there.
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4th Disarm Fappiano 16a, Quiet American 16a 4x5, Fappiano 16a 5x5
5th Hit Show Fappiano 16a 4x5, Fappiano 16a 5x5
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Family 16a, 16g,16h traced back to one taproot mare Agnes 16a Dominated the 2023 Kentuckt Derby
and the first 5 finishers.
| Breeder: J. Osborne Agnes 16a taproot mare also links to 16b, 16c, 16g,16h Taproot Mare Family 16-a Dam of Little Agnes (by The Cure), taproot mare Family 16-c, of Brown Agnes (by West Australian), Polly Agnes (by The Cure), taproot mare Family 16-g, Frivolity (by Macaroni), Windermere (by Macaroni), taproot mare Family 16-b, and of Agnes Sorel (by King Tom), through each of which the maternal line of this branch of the family continues In addition to her descendants via Windermere, Little Agnes and Polly Agnes (see their entries), the best descendants of Miss Agnes include Sir Gallahad (1923 Poule d'Essai des Poulains, Leading Sire in North America 1930, 1933, 1934, 1940, 12 times Leading Broodmare Sire), Died 1877 |
From: smartyslew
May-27
This Horse will be on my ticket for the Belmont Stakes all slots.
From: smartyslew
May-29
Like Mage: Arcangelo: 4 closest Sires Blood Agr is Over 10 percent and closest 3x4 inbreeding influence
Lightly raced and runs 12's after 6f, I think his Jock is a good fit, JJ Castellano don't get off him now
he just won the Derby and is going for 2 in a row in the TC Series and I think he is a contender
should finish in the Money with a good trip. Anybody besides me think Forte May Not go.
Two Phils was never pointed to the Belmont his connections have been pointed to the BC
hes not a 12f type and they know what they have.
- Edited June 12, 2023 7:35 pm by smartyslew
From: smartyslew
Jun-2
Belmont Stakes winners 9 generation line breeding Last 10 years
Horse , TFF closest horse Tff gen per cent Progeny side influence(Dam, Sire, Even=both)
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Essential Quality 1x Fappiano 16a 4x4 20.26%, Unbridled 1r, Jeano 1x Even,
Mr P 13c 3x4 20.25% Fappiano 16a,Gone West 2f, Preach 2f even,
Nor Dan 2d 4x5 11.49% Heros Honor 1x , Nijinsky 8f,Stoem Bird 4j even,
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Nor Dan 2d 5 Sons 5x5 8.20% Sire, Seattle Slew 13c 5x5 8.08% API 3L, Seattle Song 4m SS ARoma 19 Sire
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Nijinsky 8f, 4x5 13.72 %, Baldski 21a , State 2f , Likeable Style 1w, even
Nor Dan 2d 5x5 10.84 %, Nijinsky 8f,Vice Regent 10c, Storm Bird 4j even
Tapwrit 19, S Slew 13c 4x4 14.18% AP Indy 3l, Sodeo Sodeo 19 even,
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Turn To 1w Sir Gaylord2s, H To Reason4n,Cyane 16b DAM: Nor Dan 2d 5x5 10.13% Nureyev 5h, Vice Regent 10c Even
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- Edited June 2, 2023 12:34 am by smartyslew
From: smartyslew
Jun-2
Compare How Angel Of Empire And Arcangelo 9 gen Linebreeding Compares to the
Last 10 Belmont Winners Linebreeding in message 2131. Look for High Percentage AGR
and The more Influence Closer than 5x5 Generations to the target horse and the who
Like the ones listed on the 10 belmont winners in message 2131. Look for Many Progeny
like 3, 4, 5 Names in the same horse besides MR P and Nor Dan like Fappiano Or Nijinsky for example.
I score this higher than I do the Nicks ; Sire/ Bms.
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ANGEL OF EMPIRE C, 2020 DP = 4-4-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00 CD = 1.20 26, Classic Empire 4m/ To Honor And Serve 4r
From: smartyslew
Jun-2
Two More to compare to The Belmont Winners Linebreeding on message 2131 and to each other