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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 347459 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-11

How they did in the belmont on angles  from message 2178 with their tops numbers Non Pedigrees angles.

by bris without lasix being used.

1st Arcangelo 101 g3, 2nd Forte 103 g2, 3rd Tapit Trice 102 g1, 4th DH Hit Show 99 g2, Angel Of Empire 101 g1
6th National Treasure 100 g1, 7th Il Miracolo 85 g1, 8th Red Route One  95g1,9th Tapit Shoes 75 Mdn.
--------
highest with L used Tapit Shoes 98-stks,Il Miracolo  89 Oc, Red Route One 98 L Stks, (all 3 L number higher than non L)
interesting the 3 with Best Number on lasix finished 7-8-9, the last 3...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Speed Last Race Arcangelo 1st 101,2nd Forte 100, 3rd Tapit Trice 93, 4th Hit Show 96, Angel 101
----------------------------------------
Back Speed ::103 Forte 102 Tapit Trice 101  Angel Of Empire  99 Hit Show 98L, 2-3-4-4, Arcangelo 1st 97L
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Early Last; 1st Arcangelo 68, 2nd Forte 90, 3rd Tapit Trice  77,Hit Show 100, Angel 81,Tapit Shoes 100-Last.
--------------
Late Pace Last : 1st Arcangeno 122,2nd Forte 96, 3rd Tapit Trice 86, 4th Hit Show 82. Angel 95
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Races in a row on the Improve Bris:3rd Tapit Shoes 5: 75 86L 88L 93L 98L WoN,Arcangelo 4: 74 92L 97L 101
 4th Angel Of Empire : 6 : 68 76 86 97 101 101, Il Miracolo 3:81 85 89 L, National Treasure 96 97 97 100

-------------------------------------------------------------------

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-12

I see now yes the 8 generation female linebreeding blood and agr usually is lower then

the 9 generation Male and Female Linebreeding charts. 
I should of did the 9 generation charts the males can show more crosses sometimes

10 or more and have over 20 % agr 3x4,4x4 etc influence.

I put both together  for this years crop they came in almost in order of their 9 generation  linebreeding pedigree

Chart.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-12

Lets see How message 2130 did for the belmont Copied below, check the date for that message 5/29/23
Page 108 this thread.

Arcangelo did have the closest up linebreeding 3x4 and and high AGR over 20 % closest 
Also family 8f and the 3rd Conduit Belmont win last 16 years, Jazil & Rags to Riches 2 others
Equal to tapits 3 derby wins Deputy Minister below Sire of Better Than Honour 8f the 3rd Dam
Nijinsky 8f and Raise The Native 8f have the same Conduit as ARC  and thats 2 amplifiers for
The tail Female Familiy 8f Lots OF influence strong for TC races, this family more for the Belmont
Keep a picture of the Sires & Mares and their progeny and family and Rasmussen Factor LIke
Forte when you see his wonderful Linebreeding at least 10 progeny listed are in many TC race winnersl
JJ a perfect ride that was Beahtiful.
Arcangelo

UNBRIDLED 1r 3S x 4d unbridleds Song 4m, Tap Your Heels  3o 2 (1) (1) 18.75% 3x4 21.66%
DEPUTY MINISTER 10a 4s x 4d  Better Than Honour 8f  grechelle 16g 2 (0) (2) 12.50%
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-13

How I read the splits from their last races to cap the Belmont  message 2137 page 108
Arcangelo won Belmont: splits all 24's to 9f and how he did it, 12f type
all 12's clicked 1/8ths after 1st 1/4, Angel close for 1/8's,distance suspect

National Treasure: Front Runner 10f top under right conditions, 1st Q fast.2nd Q almost 25
Red Route One Best numbers with lasix toss, Tapit Shoes last 4 races with lasix 70 something 
number with out. Toss. Arcangelo if Mage and Tonalist can do it why not; JJ fit him like a glove
in the PeterPan and a Perfect ride in the Belmont  and Pedigree says yes.
----------- ------- 

smartyslew said:

2023 belmont Contenders splits from their last race. Angel of Empire     24.30,  48.38  11.84   37.02   2.01.70 10t Derby G1                                            24.08  23..46  25.18  24.68 lastQ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Arcangelo             25.05   49.35   13.54   37.59   49.71  1/8 12.12  g3 9f                                          24.30   24.19   24.05  Last Q 24.15 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Forte                    24.69   47.74    11.54    36.87   49.37  1/8 12.50 g1 9r                                           23..05    23.80   25.33   Laast Q 25.14 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Hit Show              23.38    46.44   10.83    36.37  2.02.82  10fDerby G1                                          23.06   24..39   25,54   26.45 Last Q ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Il Miracolo            23.02   45.34     10.48    37.12 last Q 26.64 8f allo OC 100,000                                         22.32      25.14   26.64 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ National Treasure 23.95  48.92     13.49    37.07   55.12  last 3/16 18.05 Prk G1                                          24.97    24.57    23.58         23.95 Last Q -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Raise Cain          23.59   47.14     11.12    36.71   2.03.57 10f Derby G1                                          23.55     23.98    25.59    26.86 Last Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Red Route One   25.06   49.64     13.80    37.78    56.08 Last 3/16 18.30 Prk G1                                               24.58      24.16   23.98    24.31 last Q -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                  Tapit Shoes         23.17    47.16      12.26   38.34    50.95 1/8 13.61,  9f S                                          23.99      25.10   26.08    Last Q 26.65 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tapit Trice           24.61     48.76      12.14   37.31   2.03.42  10f, Derby G1                                          24.15       23.28  25..03   26.11 Last Q   G1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Prove Worthy     24.30     49.21      13.44   38.68    2.03.80  10 f MSW                 24.91      24..23  25.24    25.12 Last Q
---

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-13

Message 2138 main Female Families for the 21st Century Belmont winners page 108
Arcangelo 8f,  2023 winners is loaded with family 8f  one of the Dominant female families for The Belmont
and many other branches of family 8 within 5 generations.

2023 Arcangelo 8f(7) 8c 3  Storm Cat

2022 Mo Donegal  8c(7)
2020 Tiz The Law 8k(5) 8f 1
2018 Justify 8c(5) 4 8f
2016 Creator 8f (7) 4 8h
2013 Palace Malice 8k(4) 2 8f,2 8c,1 8g, 1 8h
2012 Union Rags 8f (5) 1 8d
2011 Ruler On Ice 8c(6) 5 8h,2 8f, 1 8d 
2010 
Drosselmeyer 8f(5), 1 8d
2009 Summer Bird  8f(8) 1 8d
2007 Rags To Riches 8f(6),2 8c, 2 8d
2006 Jazil 8f(6) 2 8c, 2 8d
*2005 Afleet Alex 8f(2) 8j 2,1 8d,5g(10)5h 3,1 5f
2004 Birdstone 8f(7)
2003 Empire Maker 8f(6) ,1 8c, 1 8d
2002 Sarava 8c(4) 2 8h
2000 Commendable 8f(4)2 8c ,2 8d,

---------------------------------------
*Family 5  another angle goes with family 8 added together 19 positions Afleet Alex 5 with family 8.
----------

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-15

I finally got around to doing the splits for the Belmont Stakes
Arcangelo ran great for 11 furlongs and staggered home in the Last Q time 26.55
without getting caught and was backing up and nobody was closing on him imo.
First Time going 2 turns and previous furthest race Peter Pan 1 turn 9f race.
Last Q 26.55 previous Q 25.11 thats 7 lengths slower than the previous Quarter.
A May 11 Foal makes it more amazing playing catchup. The 2 races on lasix is
the only strike I had , I hope somebody asks the trainer why she did that and I pray he's clean?
Forte was up close the 1st 6f and like his last race he ran the turns wider from the spot he entered
that might be him and Not Irad , it needs to be fixed. I don't know the rags with that last Q
Arc numbers may not be as good as the Peter Pan.
I showed the first 3 finishers and added the  GPS link showing the field.

------------------------------------
Arcangelo    23.81    48.08   12.86    37.57      2.02.68   2.29.23 
                               24.27   24.78   24.71       25.11      26.55     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Forte           23.88    48.08   13.01    37.92      2.03.66   2.29.50
                               24.20   24.93    24.91       25.74      25.84
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tapit Trice    24.33    48.27   13.20    37.61     2.03.11    2.29.51
                              23.94    24.93    24.41      25.50       26.40
------
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-16

I like to take a picture of the speed numbers after the TC in June and compare before
the Breeders Cup the numbers and distance and see who improves and their best distance
and always check  the last Q time to see if they ran it or backed up and under any pressure
a good tool to find their distance limitations when they move longer they are 3 yr olds.
here is the Beyer leaders.

------
3-year-olds: male or female
through 06/15/2023

HORSE TRK DATE DIST BEYER FIGURE
Arabian Lion BEL 10 Jun 7F 109
Drew's Gold BEL 10 Jun 7F 106
Munnys Gold TAM 26 Mar 7F 106
Mage CD 06 May 1 1/4M 105
Two Phil's CD 06 May 1 1/4M 105
Angel of Empire CD 06 May 1 1/4M 104
Gilmore BEL 10 Jun 7F 104
Arabian Lion PIM 20 May 1 1/16M 103
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-16

This is Just tapits 8 gen, females up close and its a Big Wow
For a Sire of the WHO.
Look at Tapits 8 generation female Linebreeding of inbreeding 9 females for balance
and its the who. the 1st top 3 are in many TC race winners  
TAPIT H, 2001 DP = 13-19-24-2-2 (60) DI = 2.75   CD = 0.65
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-20

I was surprised how many horses 5 and older are on the Tbred Voting Poll
only two 4 year olds in the top 10.

...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-23

I won't bet the Ohio Derby tomorrow because I don't see value in the Horses

I think that will win. I have noticed the 8 entrants has speed, stalkers, closer types

and I can see Two Phils  eventually take the lead if the jock decides its necessary because

of the pace . I think the 2 to beat are Two Phils and Bishops Bay who finished 2nd to Arcangelo 

in the one turn 9f Peter Pan. Others are Lord Miles not consistent and Hayes Strike the gurus like and Henry Q.

Some think Hayes Strike 6-1 is the value, I don't see any value there for any I mention.

Two Phils will be tough to Beat imo.

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