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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 351460 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-25

I agree Scotland before Saturday broke 1st in 3 races including the Curlin and Wired the field 9f race.
two of those 3 races were 9f, and 10f and near or on the lead , 2 of his wins sprinting he won from off the pace.

Try going here and click on Brad Cox and 9/23/23
I'm curious to the bad races saudi Crown has run in
click on saudi Crown and read the PP's for the Penn Derby
and let us know his bad races, i'm not sure which races they are!
his 2 wins are his lowest bris numbers first 2 races.
His 2 losses were by a nose in graded races,
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-25

Brad Cox said He may enter Saudi Crown In the Mile or the Classic
and Leaning to the Classic ,he thinks he can get another furlong with that win in The Penn Derby.
He was awarded a 105 beyer in the slop race. I hope he runs in the Mile. Try 10 f wnen he's four next year. 112 E

  "Saudi Crown Conduit Mare Profile = 6-7-2-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.00   Triads = 15-16-15
his  13 in the wings 6-7(BI) 7-6 (SP) suggest 10f limit if it was 7-6 and 6-7  with the B and P higher suggest longer with speed of ground
and his middle Triad the highest at 16 suggest a killer Miler with class to go a distance of ground with that balance of speed and stamina"

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-25

Saudi Crown's maiden was on wet/showery, he ran in slop in the Jim Dandy and of course, the Pennsylvania Derby now.  I can't help but think he is aided by a wet track.  Which is probably unlikely at Santa Anita, so I"m unsure of how he would stretch out there.   Until the field is set, knowing the musical chairs that often happens in the BC races, with horses dual entered in more than one race then we don't know til the day before, I can't even make a guess that any of the horses slated for the Classic will show up in the gate.  A month out ..... I just can't. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-25

Oh yes indeed and the best wet number going in along with the best everything else according to Bris.
and the fastest out of the gate 4 races in a row now and like you mentioned now the 2 9f races won in the slop.

Reincarnate broke 5th, Scotland 2nd. He loves leaving the gate. Cox keeps him wound and I Like his pedigree
if only somebody  else handled him. Still a lot to like.

bisket513

From: bisket513

Sep-26

The reason I like to use 3 year best times to base my variant is because speed figures aren’t reliable from one track to the next. Meaning a figure at Saratoga won’t be an effective source to compare a figure a horse earned at Santa Anita. When Beyer invented figures an entire card of races were on dirt. Today 1/2 are on grass and 1/2 on dirt, and some tracks add tapeta so 3 different surfaces... There aren’t enough races every day to make reliable variants. So I only trust variants made for each individual track. I don’t try to compare figures in today’s race to a figure a horse made at a different track. Now on big race days where there are multiple graded races on the same day you have more races to compare. On top of that you have multiple horses shipping in. Also everyone at the track for the meet races there best runners.  So figures earned on these days will be a better barometer across multiple tracks. Another words I’ll compare a figure earned derby day to a figure earned Preakness if the runners are in the Travers. Say for Forte, I trust his figures earned at the Fla derby, Belmont, and Travers day. All big race days at each track. If you look at his figures earned on those days they are consistent. In my book Saudi Crown hasn’t earned a reliable figure because he has yet to race on a big day at premier track. On top of that many of his figures were earned on wet tracks. Which is another factor. All the other horses in the Jim Dandy have raced consistently on big race days. Angle of Empire Oaklawn, Churchill, Belmont. So to me Saudi Crown has figures similar to the runners in the Dandy. High 90’s low 100’s. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-26

Blast from the past 2013 ,29th running of the BC Classic page one past  angles for the win By Mucho Macho Man.
Many angles have changed and some haven't. Will Take Charge 2nd, Declaration Of War 3rd.
-----------

Tue, Oct 29, 2013 at 2:06 PM
bc classic trends -2013 page 0ne
Beyer Index for classic 116.81, Churchill index 116.81, santa anita index 117+
classic
declaration of war-13b-epitaph-s
flat out-1n-skyscraper-bp,1n-alphabet soup
fort larned-9g-energica-c, fort larned-2012
game on dude-1-l-parrafine lass-s
last gunfighter-2-o,tripping-ic
moreno-23b-adriana-sp
mucho macho man-4r-artless-c-----zenyatta
palace malice-2s-sweet marjoram-s
paynter-26-egglantine-bs
planteur-9-the beggar-p
ron the greek-9b-idle fancy-b
will take charge-22c-busy girl

Time from final prep 49 days- 3 winners,42 days-1 winner,
41 days -1 winner,35 days -3 winners,34 days 1 winner,
28 days -2 winners,22 days 2 winners,21 days-5 winners,
20 days-2 winners,14 days-1 winner,12 days 1 winner,7 days 1 winner,
11 winners 20 days to 28 days. 

73 days:declaration of war 69 days:game on dude
42 days:moreno, will take charge 
35 days:fort larned,last gunfighter,mucho macho man,paynter 
flat out,palace malice,ron the greek
28 days:planteur
last year:fort larned 35 days,game on dude-35,ron the greek-35
flat out-35,mucho macho man-63 days
ages:winners, 9- 3 year olds,12-4year olds,7- 5 year olds
thru 2011.
6 yr olds-flat out,
7 yr olds-pool play,richards kid,
no worse than 2nd in last 3 starts.
game on dude,

odds on favorite at least 1 of last 4 starts
alpha,game on dude,mucho macho man,
richards kid,
favorite at least twice in last 4 races.
alpha,game on dude,mucho macho man
ron the greek,to honor and serve
won a gr 1, 1 1/8 mile or longer in at least 1 of last 3 starts.
alpha-11/4,flat out-11/4,fort larned 11/8,
game on dude-11/8,aw-11/4,ron the greek-11/8
to honor and serve-11/8,

Thru 2011 the favorite won 9 times,2nd-7 times,3 thirds
Dosage Index:16 less than 3.00, only 3 winners 4.05 and
higher, Ravens Pass-2008 on aw was 1st since 1986:

all contenders di 4.00 or less,3.01-4.00 range: 5 only winners-negative
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-27

Some more from 2013 BC Classic pre race.  EDIT IS Done fixed a mistake.
--------
since 2012 only  one Nasrullah or Non Phalaris Bm Sire Has won the Bc Classic *** Flight Line, Caro 2022
Changing of the Guard ,new era.
21 of 29 winners had Nasrullah or a non-phalris sire for Brood mare sire line.
10 nasrullah,11 non phalaris

fort larned: n/broad brush,paynter n/cees tizzy, moreno.nas/ap indy
declaration of war nas/rahy
last year
fort larned n/-broad brush-WInner ,richards kid-n-broad brush-

 pf number 1 1/8 mile or longer
top 5
fort larned 105,66
game on dude 93,93,84
flat out 84-2nd, woodward 
ron the greek 82,78
mucho macho man 81,66
last year
game on dude -93,-75,-83(aw)
fort larned --89,-66
flat out -84,-83,-66,
ron the greek -84,-79.-73
to honor and serve -82,-71,-62
top 5 in a gr1
same except- ron the greek best g1-78
---
final q times is estimated from past performances
i didn't have race charts
final q 25.20 or better last race 11/8 or further-dirt only
game on dude 24.00,ron the greek 24.60,last gunfighter 24.60-5th,lost footing-start
mucho macho man 24.65,paynter 24.70,flat out 24.90
just missed will take charge 25.25
--
best bris speed numbers in last race
mucho macho man 113
bris speed number 107 or better in last
mucho macho 113,ron the greek 112,game on dude 108,
paynter 108,
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  • Edited September 27, 2023 5:06 pm  by  smartyslew
Msg 1770.2530 deleted
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-28

On Saturday, June 4, 2022 at 08:35:04 PM PDT, 

The Modern Conduit mare profiles utilize a formula similar to Dr. Steve Roman’s Dosage index.  The Conduit Mare Profiles try to answer some of the questions posed by the limited stallion dosage indexes. An example is the Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet who has a dosage that predicts speed (14-12-12-0-0) (5.33), but who was able to carry that speed 1 and 1/4 miles.  Where did this endurance come from?  His conduit mare profile (6-5-1-9-7) (0.75) (12-15-17) offers a hint, with enough female influenced stamina contributions to carry that brilliance over a distance of ground.

The Triads are the point totals when the profile is broken down into three segments.

(B + I + C), (I + C + S), (C + S + P). These numbers indicate where the optimum distance ranges lie. A listing of 15-16-18 would indicate fairly well balanced triads tilting toward stamina, while Triads of 18-14-12 would indicate a sprinter/miler type leaning toward speed. Triads of 10-14-18 would indicate a stamina type best at longer distances, possibly a deep closer.

  • Edited September 28, 2023 2:56 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Sep-28

You can do this for capping and not breeding alone.

BREEDING APPLICATIONS by Bill Lathrop

A breeder must first establish what type of runner that he/she is seeking. Sprinter/Miler, Router, 

Dirt, Grass or Synthetic surface? The profiles developed in a hypo mating will offer clues

 as to the aptitudes one might expect from the resultant foal, and will also offer assistance 

in selecting a stallion that might best fit the established criteria. 

Creating the profiles on a worksheet gives an in depth look at where the influences are

 coming from, and how they influence the fabric of the pedigree.

The 4 generation pedigree is broken down into segments, with hypos showing how each 

segment interacts. A sample pedigree, would present 16 individuals designating the sources

 of each of the conduit mares (tail female to the mare born circa 1900, and never before that date) in the pedigree (sire = #1, dam = #2, paternal grandsire = #3, and so on.)

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  • Edited September 28, 2023 9:05 pm  by  smartyslew
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