Horse-Races.Net HRN's Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)|Horse-Races.Net

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping. Hosted by HRN: Horse-Races.Net

  • 549
    MEMBERS
  • 37297
    MESSAGES
  • 1
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

Current 3-year-old crop   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 400544 views.
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Dec-6

I completely agree....no doubt they will be given time off.  It seemed to be more intense for Dornoch than Sierra, as Sierra either lost focus, or was inattentively ridden.  Thinking more upside there, better price too.

Any UTR that you think should be under consideration from your list at this early point.....for an attractive price?  I can report back the price on Circa....

Gerh

From: Gerh

Dec-6

I thought Drum Roll Please ran a sneaky good race considering he was wide throughout.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Dec-6

I think the Winner forwardly placed raced in the inside Bias after watching a few more replays

and he showed Heart and came back to win ,saying that I like Sierra better from my eye test and 

researched the splits Sierra was 13 ,12 lengths behind and came real wide and got the lead at a mile by the chart

on the wrong lead, lugged in and I noticed when he passed Drum Roll Please who tried hard on the outside

Missing the inside bias and stuck out their longer than Sierra, we will have to see how the entrants from the race do

in their next races to get a Idea how good this race matches up with other Point races,

Coolmore paid Big Bucks for this horse and gave him to Brown instead of Obrien might mean something.

anyway real early I have 2 horses penciled in for the Derby Sierra Leone and Nash.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Dec-7

And Fierceness opened at 12, moved up to 13 now...

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Dec-7

thanks ! Heres More.

 Circa                                                                                 Caesars

Fierceness 12-1 15-1 Todd Pletcher
Nysos 20-1 20-1 Bob Baffert  
Locked 25-1 30-1 Todd Pletcher
Knightsbridge 30-1 35-1 Bill Mott
Muth 30-1 40-1 Bob Baffert   
Nash 35-1 40-1 Brad Cox
Dornoch 35-1 50-1 Danny Gargan
The Wine Steward 50-1 40-1 Mike Maker
Coach Prime 65-1 50-1 Bob Baffert   
Timberlake 45-1 70-1 Brad Cox
Agate Road 75-1 Todd Pletcher
Air of Defiance 50-1 75-1 Brad Cox
Honor Marie 40-1 75-1 Whit Beckman
Risk It 75-1 65-1 Steve Asmussen
Sierra Leone 50-1 75-1 Chad Brown
  • Edited December 8, 2023 3:48 pm  by  smartyslew
bisket513

From: bisket513

Dec-7

Saturday was a good day to get reliable speed figures. Just about every race the speed won with a closer passing the rest of the field for place late. The Cigar finished 4 seconds faster than the Remsen comparing each race with 12 second furlongs measuring stick. 2 year old fillies finished a second slower at the same distance as the Remsen. The Beyer was a 91 which I think is a reliable figure both to the eye and just by watching the race; it was slow. It’s a low figure for allowance horses. Unless both winner and place horse improve and develop I don’t see either one of them making the derby field from what I saw Saturday. I definitely wouldn’t suggest a future wager on either one. They’re both very green. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Dec-7

It was the fastest Remsen in about 12 years in raw time and these are 2 year old babies and are green, the winners 4th race

and the runnerups 2nd only lifetime Race and comparing to the Cigar Mile for pace and splits make no sence to me.

I think there is room for improvement and time for a few in here, I don't know the speed numbers for the past races

But the Raw time shows this years number 1.50.30 about 16 lengths faster than 2021 winner Mo Donegal 1.53.61

who won the  Belmont in 2022 by a nose over Zandon in this race.

2023 DORNOCH8 GOOD MAGIC2 PUCA3 DANNY GARGAN 5-g AQUEDUCT, NY 9 F Grade II Dirt SIERRA LEONE16 DRUM ROLL PLEASE3 1:50.30 MY. NO
2022 DUBYUHNELL GOOD MAGIC2 WILD GAMS DANNY GARGAN
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
bisket513

From: bisket513

Dec-7

The track was playing a lot faster Saturday. Comparing times from the same day works a lot better than comparing times from a year ago or two years ago etc. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Dec-7

I posted that message because I didn't agree with what you said here 

"Unless both winner and place horse improve and develop I don’t see either one of them making the derby field "

I am impressed with the stride and ground  Sierra made up in his 2nd race and at 9f no less.

I think he is a contender, and his Jock had him to far back and I liked the way he finished in his first race.

Both races he passed my eye test with the hand he was dealt with. When you said the beyer was slow 91 a figure for allowance

horses I thought I'll post the times all of these years to show  all the times are in his line of Allowance horses raw times

for 2 years old  at the distance In December of their 2 year old season. Without the known Variant for me. fastest in 12 years.

Equibase awarded Dornoch a 97 and Mo donegal a 93 in his day.

  • Edited December 7, 2023 7:56 pm  by  smartyslew
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Dec-8

12/8/23  page 1
----

BENEFICIAL C, 2021 DP = 11-5-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.96  15R 9 BL 2 stam
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
  • Edited December 8, 2023 3:37 pm  by  smartyslew
TOP