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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started Jul-2 by smartyslew; 34276 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-10

I've been under the weather this weekend and didn't get much done.
--
Field of 14 +2 AE, 7 on our list 1-2-4-5-12-15 AE-16 AE, *Stakes race
turf pedigree :Tiz The Bomb A+, On Thin Ice A+, Rocket One B+, Red Danger B+, Dowagiac Chief  A,
Martini'nmoonshine   A,
Number 12 Tiz The Bomb  Has the Elite pedigree to stretch out on the turf in this group, this is 8.5 f
and others in this group are live at this distance, I like in order 12-5-15-14  long shot number 9
Its a good betting race and look for value . Remember / Reminder my picks aren't bets
The best of breed may not be the best performer.
number 5 might be value at 8-1
 10 th race Keeneland - Sunday, October 10th, 2021
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Turf. Purse $200,000. Castle & Key Bourbon S. (Grade 2). FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. (05:46 PM) (16)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey                        ped Trainer
1 Brit's Wit  1st 7.5 f  mdn 2 G 118 Flores David Romero  B McKeever Andrew 30
2 Stolen Base 2nd 8f  oc62 2 C 118 Prat Flavien   B Maker Michael J.   10
3 Dowagiac Chief  1st 6.5f  mdn 2 C 118 Graham James  A Amoss Thomas M.  20
4 Martini'nmoonshine 1st 8.5 f mdn 2 C 118 Gaffalione Tyler A Amoss Thomas M.  10
5 X Rocket One 1st 8f mdn 2 C 118 Leparoux Julien R. B+ Mott William I.        8
6 Credibility 4th 7f S 2 C* 118 Gonzalez Edwin  B+ Casse Mark E.        20
7 Fast N Steady  1st 7.5f mdn 2 G
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-10

I didn't realize it was on the Turf, just the same it was a in the realm good race

with lots of promise for the future.

In reply toRe: msg 280
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Oct-10

Wintertrian said...

For the Bourbon, I'm going to try Red Danger or Rocket One.......

I think I will add Stolen Base because he will be under-bet and represents "good value"... (same way martinin'moonshine will be over-bet)...

..and yes, I should probably add Tiz the Bomb as well. 

I have a feeling this race will turn out wonky though.  There are some interesting longshots in here, and most of these horses have very few races under their belts.  Dowager Chief looks like an interesting long-long-long shot to stick in an exotic somewhere.
 

In reply toRe: msg 289
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Oct-10

Boy at the very end it looked like my long long shot, Dowagiac Chief was gonna nail the race with Red Danger, then Tiz a Bomb and Stolen Base ran by them. 

I'm definitely putting the chief in my virtual stable, he had speed, ran in the mix the whole way.  

Anyway,  as posted, I got the exacta --- would have had the superfecta and Super High Five, but Casse horse ruined it for me.   LOL   ( am not betting anyway) 

12-2-6-10-3

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Oct-10

Tiz The Bomb is going to be tough to beat. He is looking like his daddy. 

MTR looks like he will have a runner in the Juvy Turf C&G. Slipstream looked very good. On Thin Ice has got to break better. He saved ground and looked like he would make a run, but veered outside and couldn’t sustain his run.

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Oct-12

I stuck with Great Escape also Dont Wait up and had the winner, Rattle and Roll as third pick.     The filly race on Friday was much easier to pick, had that one singled.

In reply toRe: msg 287
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-12

I've been under the weather and will not update this site until I get Better.

I hope to be back soon.

In reply toRe: msg 292
PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Oct-12

I just noticed BB has Corniche, that means I'll be passing the Juv this year.  My biggest success in the last 6-7 years has been the Juv Classic double, with BB being involved in both, I'm not touching that or those races.  Are there any other races he is in (I'm assuming FM Sprint with Gamine)

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-12

Thank you Pianot, I hope so.

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