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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started Jul-2 by smartyslew; 34276 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Oct-13

smartyslew said...

I've been under the weather and will not update this site until I get Better.

Really sorry to hear this --- rest up!   and hope you're back quick....not seeing you here is sort of like this: 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-13

I found time for one more cup of coffee, thanks

5 entrants on our list 2-3-10-12-15AE, < 14 Elite miler,  x = Turf pedigree A or A+ my data
Took me 2 days 15 minutes at a time when possible , Picqued my Interest, Hand it to the breeders
A great Pedigree group for the Turf. Now that's on paper I can't see what they look like.
There is value all over the place and who knows who the culls are or is it a blanket finish.
A good betting race go for it its the turf. 
----
E1 85 E2 85 /LATE 83 SPEED  85   PARS: 85 85/ 83 85, 3 closest to par
Diamond Wow ¯ 84 86/ 90        86    7f
Boxing Day        89 86/ 88        83    6.5f
Opalina             77 82/ 101      92       8.f
--------
Keeneland - Wednesday, October 13th, 2021 8th race
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Turf. Purse $200,000. JPMorgan Chase Jessamine S. (Grade 2). FOR FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD. (04:44 PM) (16)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Kneesnhips 2 F 118 Graham James Amoss Thomas M.  30
2 x California Angel 2 back 1st 8f 2 F RF 118 Bejarano Rafael  Q 24.87 2 back Leonard, III George  30
3 x Turnerloose  1st 8f  Stk 2 F 120 Geroux Florent Q 24.98 Cox Brad H. 5-2
4 Ontheonesandtwos 1st turfer 2 F 118 Talamo Joseph Casse Norm W.  20
5 / Roughly A Diamond 2nd 7.5 f , 2 F 118 Saez Luis Nihei Michelle  30
6 Bhoma 1st turf 2 F 118 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph McPeek Kenneth G.  20
7 / Rigby 1st 6f 2 F 118 Santana, Jr. Ricardo Maker Michael J.  20 
8 x Queen Judith 1st 6,f yl 2 F 118
...[Message truncated]
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Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Oct-13

I posted those on Sat w/out PPs or odds yet.  Blissful and Haughty AE didn't make the gate as I thought

http://forums.delphiforums.com/horse_racing/messages/?msg=1770.280

In the Jessamine, I will probably root for Onetheonesandtwos, Queen Judith, Misthaven  
Longshot:  Roughly A Diamond.   
(I  liked Blissful and Haughty but both are AEs and won't get in? Will have to wait and see). 


I will keep my picks except move Ontheonesandtwos to longshot along with Roughly a Diamond.   
Then add California Angel & Boxing Day to Queen Judith & Misthaven.  Those are the only 4 I feel anything for?


I can't seem to get a bead on Opalina or Diamond Wow in my head. 

Anyone can win this, they are basically all green.  


 

In reply toRe: msg 299
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Oct-13

And California Angel takes it!  $37.40

( am always ecstatic when Bejarano wins stuff) 

I thought Ontheonesandtwos ran pretty well too....maybe needs shorter. 
 

You "x-ed" them pretty well smartyslew. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-13

Thanks, I had the 2-3 best pedigrees for stretching out, 14 elite miler and led then

I couldn't believe how good that California Chrome turf pedigree scored a perfect match

keep him off the dirt. Look for some of those others in here when they stretch out

This was a good prep for the field. 

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Oct-13

Despite spinning wide into the stretch, I thought Dressed would run by them, but she hung late.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-18

10/1/21 starter list  updated 10/18/21 Edit
2 turn 2 yr old prospects for the fall and BC Juvenile races
Separate  from the other 2 yr old lists . 8 f and longer 2 turn prospects
Male list.
--
I missed some races and I'll list what I have when I feel good enough
Mostly 2 turn types, with some sprinters who might try stretching out.
I'll Keep a seperate list for filly's
--
Males
----
Achilles Heel (T)
Albahr (GB)(T) g1 last Q 23.29
American Sanctuary 2nd-s
Annapolis (T) 1st g2 8.5f 1.41.04
Bayside Boy (T) 1st g2 doncaster
Be Like Clint (AW) off the turf
Big Country  front runner dirt
Biz Biz Buzz (T) sprinter
Brit's  Wit  (T)
Bourbon Heist 4th g3
Call Me Midnight
Chancellor Bay RF 4th STK-checked bad
Chaotic Tempo (T) 1st MSW
Castle Star (IRE) 2nd g1
Classic Causeway-speed sprinter
Coinage  (T)  3rd STK
Commandperformance  2nd g1
Corniche  1st g1
Credibility (T)
Curbstone (T) 2nd Msw
Dakota Gold (T) 1st stk
Daunt (T) 1st Msw
Degree Of Risk (T)3-g1
Derecho Dandy(T)
Double Thunder 1st s
Dowaiac Chief (T)
Dr Perry
Dream of A Day (T) 1/16 5.73 MSW
Electrostatic (T) 1st MSW    last Q 24.98
Eldons Prince (T)
Epic Luck (T)
First Empire g1  4th
Flip The Script (T)
Fromanothamutha
Fort Washington (T)
General Ken (T)
Giant Game
Grafton Street (T) 2nd g1
Grael  (T)
Great Britain (T)
Gingrich (T)
Heaven Street (T)
He's A Angel (T)rf 5h
...[Message truncated]
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In reply toRe: msg 304
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-18

fillies  thru 10/18/21
-------
Aint Easy 1st g2
All Luck
Averly Jane (T) sprinter
Blissful (T)
Cairo Memories (T)
California Angel (T)1st G2
Cecilita (T)
Classic Lynne (T)
Classy Edition
Consumer Spending (T)
Daisy Bee (T)
Desert Dawn
Determined Star (T)
Diamond Wow (T) Miler 2nd G2
Distinctlypossible  2nd g1
Dressed (T) G2
Echo Zulu  24.2 last Q
Electric Ride 2nd g2
Eminent Victor (T) 3rd g1
Fortunata Tensio (T)
Full Focus
Golden Sights sprinter
Grace Adler bad trip
Haughty (T)
Helens Well (IRE) (T)
Hello You (IRE) (T)1st g2
Hemmerle  (T)
Hidden Connection
Juju's Map  1st g1
Koala Princess (T)
Kinchen (IRE) (T)
Kneesnhips (T)
Lady Milagrow  (T)
Liams Dove (T)
Macadamia (FR) (T)
McKulick (GB) (T)
Mansota Sunset
Misthaven (IRE)(T)
My Zip Zip Miler
Nest
Opalina (T)
Openthegate (T) 
OutFoxed 
Pizza Bianca (T) 2nd g1
Precious Insight (T)
Ready To Purrform (T)
Roughly A Diamond (T)
Sail By (T) 1.43.21  lastQ 22.95
Sandstone MSW 8f Last Q 25.09(Slop)
Saratoga Chrome (T)
Sequist  3rd g1
Silvery Rill (T)
Solib (T)
Sterling Crest (T)
Stride (T)
Sweet As Pie  CL  
Tarabi 2nd g1
Turnerloose (T) 3rd G2
Very Scary (T)
Vivacious Vanessa (T) Q 23.05
Waters Of Merom
Wild Beauty (GB) (T)1st g1
--
In reply toRe: msg 305
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Oct-19

Here is a tidbit from 5 years ago betting Turf horses 2 yr olds and up

Turf pedigrees to look for key positions in 5 generations charts for an advantage IMO.

from one page from the haun book
"  i was already aware of the superiority of the stamina elements in the european horses
because of the way they were raced with undulating tracks and longer distances. speed was
prized in america but staying power for classic distances was cherished over the pond.
the darley X combined speed with distance and stride and produced some amazing runners.
sea the stars,sadlers wells,high chaparral,troy,galileo,goldikova,duke of marmalade, frankel,cape blanco
cape cross,pivotal,rock of gibraltar, to name just a few.
sadlers wells passed the darley x with a heart score of 157, as we were able to determine through
his daighters. this is the same great heart as expressed by kingmambo and the reason the cross between the
two lines worked so well . it didn't matter which was on which x.  sadlers wells passed the great northern dancers y line
with the darley line on his  x chromosome.if kingmambo was on top , he passed the mr p speed with the great heart of 
miesque on his x. either cross produced great speed on the y and great heart on the x, not to mention 
the five lumbar vertebra skeleton with its extraordinary stride..
--
lately,  in european auctions, the female offspring of galileo and cape cross have been getting high prices
these two sires,along with several other prominent european sires are passing the darley x, with its 
combination of stride, speed and heart. galileo through his broodmare sire, miswaki,passes the same
princequillo x found in secretariat.
ironically, miswakis dam hopespringseternal was purchased as a yearling by penny chenery, who named her.
penny bought her because she was  a daughter of buckpasser, but her greatest x which she expressed
and gave to her sons, galileo and sea the stars, was princequillo the sire of her second dam . urban sea and her two sons all won the arc de triomphe, a test of stamina..

  • Edited October 19, 2021 3:26 pm  by  smartyslew
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