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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 259296 views.



I saw a nice one at Gulfstream today from Chad Brown. Credit Event, by Not This Time, out of a Candy Ride mare, debuted with a three length win over the artificial surface, at a mile and 70 yards. He completed the race in 1:41 and change. I need to see if he can replicate that on the dirt.


From: smartyslew


His female families says be belongs if he shows he has talent/

His sires Linebreeding I find interesting topped with Nasrullah and Forty Niner

I don't see that very often ,the percentage for Blood and Agr is pretty good imo !
Forty Niner carries Princequillos large Heart and is bred to Lucky Lucky Lucky who 

carries Princequillos Xfactor thru Pocahantas same as Forty Niner to get the 3rd Dam

Mahdooda 6e. lot to like with that cd 0.20 winning from off the pace.
Blushing Groom has Rahy and Candy Stripes one on each side that's a positive imo 

I think Gulfstreams Tapeta is going to play a role this year, preparing the 3's.

CREDIT EVENT C, 2019 DP = 1-0-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22   CD = 0.20

Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
NASRULLAH 7S x 7S x 8S x 8S x 9S x 9s x 8S x 8S x 9D x 7D x 8D x 8D x 8d x 6D x 7d x 8D x 8d x 7D 18 8 
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Looks like distance should not be a problem either with that dosage.


From: smartyslew


Yes, keep that stalking style and finish strong. He needs that fitness, with Brown

he could put him on turf instead of dirt. I would like to see a shot on dirt..




Chad just had two run at Tampa Bay on the turf. Both firsters. The even money favorite,  Napoleonic  War, a War Front colt, out of a Street Cry mare, managed a dead heat win after a slow start, and the 3rd place finisher Unexpected Outcome, an MTR colt, out of a Galileo mare, was wide throughout. Those two will probably stay on the turf, while Credit Event should get a shot on the dirt.


From: smartyslew


Smile Happy is a P/N with a Dam loaded with Non Phalaris Sires and Mares within 5 generations
IMO this is a Brilliant Mating by the Breeder  Run Happy (speed)/ Pleasant Tap 1x 2nd Bc classic to Api  10f
2nd Bc Sprint 6f, won 2 g1 @ 10f, 3rd in the derby to Unbridled, ITM 17 graded races, 1st or 2nd in 13 graded races
6f - 10f.
on the Dam Side in the 5th generation there are 16 lines of Sires and Mares 12 of them are non Phalaris types
this makes Smile Happy special in todays window of time. 9 N/P Chefs on the dam side within 5 generations
some more than once, Major elite Stamina to go with Sire Run Happys speed.
Smile happy is set up to be a elite runner or a Chef De Race or both. 10 lines 1x thru to La Troienne doesn't hurt
within 5 generations, 4 positions of stamina N/P chefs on the dam side and 1 stam chef P/N Nijinsky CS on the sire side.
I don't know what this says about carrying 126 pounds on the first Saturday in May. He was foaled in February.
Animal Kingdom in 2011 was the last P/N to win the derby. Smarty Jones 2004 P/N, War Emblem 2002 P/N
Giacamo 2005 The only N/P type to win the derby in the 21st Century.


From: smartyslew


Check out this Turfers MSW win at one mile by 14 lengths on dirt E 82), he's a monster

on turf, Can probably beat most of these on dirt, 8-1 right now on the futures

is he going on the TC trail is the Question, I suggest using in the Exactas instead

for the win if you play the futures, He has a  E 107 on turf. I really like him on turf.

Tiz The Bomb

  • Edited January 23, 2022 12:29 pm  by  smartyslew

From: smartyslew


Lecomte: beyer

Call Me Midnight  88
Epicenter  88
Pappacap  87

Beyer 3 yr old 8f and longer 2022 Leaders thru 1/22/22

Adare Manor(f)  8f  92
Simplification 8f  90
Call Me Midnight 8.5 F  88

Epicenter  8.5 f   88
Newgrange  8f    88
Pappacap  8.5 f    87

Constitutionlawyer  9f  85
Armagnac  8.5 f       83

Oviatt Class  8f     83
Charge It  8f  83
Rockefeller  8f    83

Strike Hard  8f   83
Volcanic  8f  83

This will change when the Heavyweights start Running !

  • Edited January 23, 2022 10:55 pm  by  smartyslew

From: smartyslew


Pool 2 Entry's  with a derby nick or long nick of a derby winner (A Sire line and Bms Sire line marraige)

1 Chasing Time  2018 winner

5 Dash Attack  2015, 2000 winner

8 Giant Game 2021, 1999 winner

9 High Oak  2014, 2013 winners

10 Jack Christopher 2009 winner

15  Rattle N Roll    1995 winner

16 Simplification   2015 winner

18 Smile Happy P/N  1997, 2004 

21 Varatti   2020    winner

A strategy might be boxing from this list with # 24 all other 3 yr olds

in a Exacta box.

I put a Quarter win bet on #16 Simplification for giggles last look 55-1

  • Edited January 23, 2022 2:11 pm  by  smartyslew
Msg 1770.452 deleted