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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 258736 views.

From: DogsUpWired


To All..

WADR the study of genetics (and Classically those infamous flys in the teaching of the math of progeny);


 The myraid of/ and  mathematical combinations is to scope the "Anomalies.

In Chemistry the exact finite measurement of elements, and then; say add heat, cold, pressure, distillation also does not equate to final product. 

This is called "Stoichometry.

A recent post here by a gene capper said the Derby Winner had a combination of usually a sire and mare name of royality and that was to be taken to the window. Not too techie. To which I sent him a list of the last 2 dozen.

And the just days before the Derby, the pro breeding analysis of horses that made it to say in the Derby; they're already there.  Formula all crop reduce to 20, and calculate their PPs  in equation. Still 5 % chance of pickin' winner if soley gene pool is deciding edge.

A pro handicapper editorial narrative factor of a 1st time starter bred by sire with a high percentage of 1st time wins for the crop. I've seen high of 25%, but played out over say 50 to 100, that number shrinks like a bankroll of loser.

Derby winners are named after singer Sting's son, An owner asking his wife: I'll Have Another cookie. Gone are the days of whipping up a bowl of genetic stoichometry ? Spelling? and voo doo Dosage. Crop size, # of stallions standing and stud fee crunch the numbers as well.

Like WTH...a dosage 7; can't win.

Ah don't bet the farm,  do 2 barn doors.


From: Wintertrian


smartyslew said...

Speed = 8   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.71   Triads = 16-22-23

tail female family 4m.

Love to see him stretch out.

yeah would love to see him stretch out too, he's game as heck.    But I doubt that would happen.  Also too bad Ward didn't keep him. 


From: smartyslew


 Derby points leaderboard entered  in this race:  Mo Donegal 10 pts, Giant Game 4,White Abbario 2,

Holy Bull g3 8.5 f , race 11 gulfstream park 3 yr olds  2/5/22
5  in here on our elite 2 turn list. # 2 Mo Donegal  3-1,# 4 Simplification 4-1, # 6 *Tiz The Bomb 5-1,#7 *Spin Wheel 20-1
#9 Giant Game 7-2... 2 in here on waiting in the Wings list #5 Cajun's Magic 10-1,# 8 White Abarrio 6-1
Wide open at this distance
I'm Picking 4 Simplification 4-1 1st, 9 Giant Game 7-2 2nd (bred for longer, bad post for distance and track)
3rd I'm going with the turfer 6 Tiz the Bomb 5-1, Underneath 7,8,2, wheel or box these 6, its only 8.5f.
Galt full to Songbird
Holy Bull g3 8.5 f , race 11 gulfstream park 3 yr olds  2/5/22 , 10-4-2-1 Derby points,  * Dirt & Turf Prospects
PP Horse  Virtual
A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 Galt (KY) 3/C J Alvarado 118 W I Mott 10/1
2x Mo Donegal (KY) 3/C
...[Message truncated]
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From: smartyslew


Derby points entrants :Courvoisier 10, Smarten Up 4,Cooke Creek 2

2/5/22 Aqueduct race 8 Withers 9f
2 in This race on our elite 2 turns list #1 Constitutionlawyer**, #3 Smarten Up a closer
1 on the Wannabe list #4 Gilded Age , 1 on our early 2 yr old list in Oct. #9 Early Voting  3-1
1 on our waiting in the Wings #5 Courvoisier 5-2-2-1, 4 routes, on Belmont list rf with Tapits tff 3o
won Jerome in last after 4 mdn races ,bred for 12f & 4 yr old season Dangerous on the improve EP8 type
**Moving up in class from Mdn 80
My picks, in order 1 Constitutionlawyer 7-2, 2 5 Courvoisier 9-2, 3 4 Gilded Age 10-1, 4 3 Smarten Up 10-1
Early Voting  3-1, leaving off my ticket, only one race in December.MDN 80,lacks foundation of others.
2/5/22 aqueduct race 8 withers stks g3 9f  10-4-2-1 derby points
1x EP 4Constitutionlawyer (KY) 7-2 3/C E 91 9f mud J Lezcano 118 R Handal
2 EP 6  Grantham (KY)  10-1 3/C E87 8.5f
...[Message truncated]
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From: smartyslew


3 in here are on our Elite 2 turn list Messier, Sir London, Wharton, 1 entrant waiting in the wings Happy Jack
race is Wide open with 5 entrants . Cabo Spirit (Turfer) Could be entered to make it 5 entrants, Baffert effect
might be one reason Shippers don't come in here for a G3 , sad 5 only entrants.
Happy Jack 1 only race could be the the best for Classic Distances, He's a little behind in the Foundation
and the same applies to Wharton.
8th race  Santa Anita Park - Sunday, February 6th, 2022 STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt Robert Lewis g3, 3 yr olds 10-4-2-1 derby pts, none  on the Derby points leader board.
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Messier   6-5 3 C  E/P 6 o 120 Velazquez John R. Baffert Bob
2 Sir London  9-5 3 C E 8 120 Prat Flavien Callaghan Simon
3 Cabo Spirit  8-1, 3 C  P 3 124 Espinoza Victor Papaprodromou George
4 Wharton   4-1 3 C E/P 6 120 Hernandez Juan J. Baffert Bob
5 Happy Jack-rf  6-1 3 C  S 6 120 Cedillo Abel O'Neill Doug F.
E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 91 97/ 89 97,   Messier  99 108/ 88, 100,
 Messier has a big advantage in Prime Power scoring 142.5, Sir London 134.1
Messier 1st last race, class rating 117.7,best speed at distance 100.
early speed #Wharton 100, Messier 99,Happy Jack 91, late speed last 95T Cabo Spirit,94 Sir London,89 Happy Jack
If you bet to win ,beat Messier 6-5
  • Edited February 4, 2022 3:18 pm  by  smartyslew

From: Wintertrian


RAESFAN said...

Emmanuel has had everything his way thus far.

I hope he continues in that manner.  He would be in my top 5 right now. 


From: Wintertrian


I like your holy bull picks a lot, but also like white abarrio and spin wheel.


From: smartyslew


This is a real solid field imo for this early, at the cross roads and don't be surprised if somebody jumps way up.

this is the 2nd crop in a row I really like as a group and I think the breeding is still on the rise

I look for it to be really good in 5 years if we get the Meds cleaned up and the window of time is a good group

of using the right Female families with the nicks and sires in 5 generations and the foundation of the 8 generation Females 

and The sires 9 generation linebreeding is so strong to influence 4x5 ,5x5 high blood . 5 generation up close and the 8 and 9 generation 

Foundation Supporting the single Sire and Mare up close with good marraiges thru out all Imo.


From: princeofdoc


Don't understand O'Neil's rush with Happy Jack....makes no sense




Someone better pressure Simplification on the front end. I like Giant Game. He ran credibly in the BC Juvenile, finishing behind a couple of major Derby contenders. Giants Causeway, out of a More Than Ready mare, so you know that’s my pick. I usually see a lot of MTRs out of Giant’s Causeway mares. It has proven to be a good breeding strategy.