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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 108227 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

7/31/21

He was not counting unraced filly born in 2015, Misleading suggesting 100 percent throwing runners

For what ever reason one didn't race, 4 for 5 is the stat.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

7/31/21

I put that 92 out there to slow people down getting giddy early over 5 and 5.5 furlong 

races, mostly with firsters, it can be a waste of time, I started this thread to help others

that are interested with my data to help them do their own due diligence, I have a list

of  unraced 2 yr olds that are classic prospects , and a list of 2's that have raced, that is 

the weekly list I'm adjusting and adding to on Mondays on here ,its the start and its time

to start heating up ,Its August. No unraced 2's on this weekly list. There is a high percentage

of Derby winners awarded a 92 beyer ran as a 2 yr old. Time has changed ,winners don't 

race at 2.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

7/31/21

Good catch.. good point 

Typically as you know the sire stats are highlighted as to crop performance.

As for stallions, typically stats are kept for total foals yearly, then those making it to the gate as a race starter and their production stats.

And that mare might certainly not had all win their firster maiden also. Yet she really is off to a good start. Say bred to 5 different stallions..

Playing Pick 4 @ Spa with Essential Q a single and the race following as the 4th leg. 

  • Edited July 31, 2021 2:05 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 45
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

7/31/21

Message 45 this thread has this weeks 2 yr old updated list.

Race 8 Woodbine 7/31 : Victoria Stakes 2 yr olds : 5.5 F (all weather) : On our list

# 6  One Timer  9-5 ML favorite  E 100 in first race,  Trappe Shot/  Blame
-------

Race 12 Gulfstream : Dr Fager Stks : 6 F Dirt : On the list

# 7 Hope In Him  8-5 ML Fav.  E85 in first race   Chitu / Songandaprayer
------

In reply toRe: msg 60
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

7/31/21

Paid $244

  • Edited July 31, 2021 5:52 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 61
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

7/31/21

Results from 2 yr old races on message 61

race 8 Woodbine: One Timer on our list finished first today Victoria Stks (AW)

Race 12 at Gulfstream: Hope in him folded up early  and I'll take him from our list.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

8/1/21

I don't have the phillies races on this list, but your Mtr boys are in these races for 

today as you noted: 2 yr old races today

Saratoga Race 5 (State bred) 6 f dirt

Woodbine Race 2: 6 furlongs  (T)

Gulfstream Race 3 : 7.5 F (T)

Del Mar  Race 2 :5f (t),        race3 :5f dirt

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

8/1/21

MTR did well today. On Thin Ice won his debut juvy race at Gulfstream at a 7.5f distance. They allowed him to set slow fractions on the lead, and he sprinted away late. In Arlington, a couple of juvy fillies on debut ran 1-2 at the 5f distance. Both races were on the turf.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

8/1/21

On thin Ice looked good, its about time MTR was bred to a Hail To Reason in the 4th generation

especially the third BMSire to go with MTR  4th gen. Sire.. I didn't know Dynaformer was a perfect fit for that t2/t2. Should be a good Turfer. I missed the Filly races.

Crowded Trade Ran good to get third today after being left at the gate. bad beat

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

8/2/21

Check out race 8 at Arlington yesterday. The MTR exacta was pretty impressive after the winner, Plus Chic, broke slow, but was able to easily reel in the 9/5 favorite to win by 3 in the short turf sprint.

She is out of Chic Dancer, a Grade 3 winning mare at 9.5f, who is by Joyeux Dancer, a Grade 1 winning stallion at 9f. I think this homebred filly will be able to stretch out successfully on the turf.

As for On Thin Ice, that Dynaformer blood should allow him to get a distance of ground as well. Think back on horses like Barbaro, Dynaforce, Brilliant Speed, Critical Eye, Film Maker, and many more. Nearing the end of his breeding career, this may be as you stated, a new direction to take the old boy!

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