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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 127316 views.
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Apr-20

I was impressed by that until I found out that the distance has been contested only four times in the history of the track. I was more impressed by his ability to rate than the time. I am also convinced that he can get the distance. Nine and a half furlongs is a bit different than 9f. That last 1/8 can be a beast. He did half of that last part, and still looked strong. He will certainly be on top in some of my wagers.

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Apr-20

ETHEREA (PR)

PR?  is that Puerto Rico?  That tail is the biggest issue I have with this ones pedigree.  along with Phone trick, left banker and MrP in the sweet spot.

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Apr-21

Yes, Puerto Rico.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-21

Yes and Uraguay, Argentina thru that one line . He's the winner of the 2021 Kentucky  Derby and some of 

the Argentina line are part of their elite line and Mandaloun tail female line 5J Conduit Sire is White Eagle

The Stamina Influence Sire line family that tilts to Stamina the opposite of his Dp Di and Cd numbers.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-21

You are talking about Mandaloun  ?

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Apr-21

No Taiba,  Medina Spirit was 2-n and I think Mandaloun was 5-j.  I see a lot talking that one up but I cannot get on that wagon, but glad many others like him.  EQ and Mandaloun were my top 2 last year, had no problem with 5-j.

Top 5 turn times

f TT

Mo Donegal Wood 9 23.70633

Emmanuel 8 23.90331

Skippylongstocking Wood 9 24.06615

Early Voting Wood 9 24.20418

Smile Happy KYJGC 8.5 24.20581

Emmanuel and SH races both were too slow which aided the TT

Well, that looked a lot better when I entered it.

Edit, just found out Taiba dam is OH bred, one more nail in that coffin.

  • Edited April 25, 2022 11:36 pm  by  PISTOL9
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-21

I was looking at the wrong horse, Sorry, I think you did ignore it, my bad..

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-21

Early Voting 111 +20, Mo Donegal 111 +19 both Wood ,Taiba 111 +11Messier 108 +4 both Sa Derby
Skippylongstocking 107 +13 Wood, Probably Doesn't make the Field, Wood numbers are Questionable IMO
E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 104/ 93   104> Bris first 5 bris speed better than Par 104
-------------------------
Early Voting                    95  104/111  111 Prime Rib wood + 20  86 91 111  last 4 numbers 1st to last
Mo Donegal                    85   95/ 121  111 wood +19                  91 93 92 111   Last 4
Taiba                              96 106/ 109  111  SAD +11                 100  111    2 race numbers
Messier                         111  109/102  108   "      +4                  74 91 93 100 104 108  6 in a row > up
Skippylongstocking          88  97/ 111  107  wood +13                77 85 94 107   to bad he doesn't  get in
Zandon                           79  88/ 114  103 la derby  +9  9 3/16   88 93 94 103  numbers getting better
Epicenter                          87 90/106  101  "         +3     "           90 93 98 101  4 in a row up
Tiz The Bomb                    86 93/105  101 JR Ruby +11  AW        73 90 101  AW Special
Smile Happy                     85 96/ 102 101  Blue Grass +6            87 98  95 101   slipped 2 back
Tawny Port                        88 94/ 99    99   JR Ruby,2 back +10    79 86  89  99, 90 ,8.5f Lex. dirt -9 from AW
Zozos                               90  93/ 98 98  La Derby  +4               76  94  98   
Happy Jack                       83  96/ 95 97   SA          +7               72  90  97   
White Abarrio                    96 110/77 96  Fla D       -1                 91  91 97 96  dropped from last
Pioneer Of Medina              89  92/95 96  La D       +2                 81 87 94 96  Warrior
Golden Gilder                     86 97/92  96  Blue G.  +10                82 90 86 96  UP and down
Rich Strike                        78 79/107  95 JR Ruby  +8                 74 88 87 95  best on aw
Charge It                          96 108/ 77 94  Fla D      -4                  91 98 94  Hit Gate
Cyberknife                        94  97/ 86 94  Ark. D.    0                    86 81 94 94  no L in derby
Simplification                   100 113/70 93 Fla D      -2                    99 92 95 93   Gets in Trouble
Barber Road                      90  91/ 86 91 Ark D      0                     88 92 91 91  Disapoint last 2 for east west runner
Morello                             86  91/ 82 87  Wood     -12 injured       99 87
In Due Time                     87  92/82 87  Lex,8.5 F -4  Never raced* 94 91 87  all one turn
Un Ojo                             91  81/ 74 78  Ark D     -14 Hit Rail       86 92 before Ark Derby
* no 2 turn races
---
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-22

Curious about Mandaloun being in your top 2 last year......first time in a long time that a horse who came in 6th in final prep won Derby.  I know you liked pedigree, but such a poor showing in last prep is usually a toss for me.  But Mandaloun did work tremendously prior.

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Apr-22

Relative to the others, I tossed his LaD out as that looked like an outlier, he ran too well in previous races.  Looked good on the track and pedigree was decent for ITM finishers..  Often it is relative to the competitions.  EQ was my top play, then Mandaloun was used next most and was the only other one played in the top spot, but not nearly as much as EQ.  Medina Spirit was only use lightly in 3rd 4th spot.  I still consider Medina Spirit as the winner as well as Maximum Security when looking at the traits of past winners. I think EQ ran the farthest of all the horses last year as often happens with my picks..  I expect the horse I have liked this year to get on of the longer rides depending on the post which is why I may be leaning more toward the E speed horse.

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