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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 129910 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-25

I'll put the Next step up tomorrow  for the angle 

Messier has the goods big red and Buckpasser up the middle in a Passing Position.
Has a strong Derby Nick Sire/ Bms has won derbys

The angle I was working with updating Epicenter for Gerh

for Messier his dam is 9 on foal date ok under 10 years

her 3rd Crop hits the 4 and under that produces derby winners 
Princequillo and Latroienne in a Passing Position

Blue Blood imo.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-25

Gerh said...

I think the winner won the Louisiana Derby.Wouldn’t be surprised if the Florida Derby provides the rest of the trifecta

I was on Epicenter as the horse nobody could beat, until this week.  I suddenly realized he is vulnerable (I had the same feeling with EQ last year.....that he was such the obvious winner) but I do think it will be horses from FL race or if wet then Messier. 

Now that classic causeway is back in --- CC scoped fine after the race, there was no physical excuse for him at all.  He just got pressured by a horse who wasn't going to let up on him, and the excuse was psychological, he backed up because Simplification humiliated him..........but it probably also cost Simp the win or place as well.   In the Derby there will be other horses to do that duty, Simplification can just do his running since he's already proved he can wear a pace leader down.........he can now leave that duel to someone else. 

Gerh

From: Gerh

Apr-25

I think the Florida based horses will flourish in the cooler Kentucky air.I think that is why Lynch has Changed his mind about CC.Messier and Simplification got a lot out of their final preps
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-26

Makes sense.  There’s not only a lot fewer of them as compared to Feb.-April but they’re often already about as good as they’re going to be.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-26

What I  didn't do is research how many foals was born in each Month over time. January is a Good month for maybe

having the least foals born year over year, also I heard years ago  December foals were held back and reported

to be born in January. No way to know if that is true>

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-26

Oh I'm sure it happened lol.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-26

I think sometimes you just have to draw a line thru a race.  CC was coming off a new top and was on a short turnaround.  He wasn’t really going that fast when he started backing up and probably would have won going away if he hadn’t stopped (see the final time).  He’s faced pressure in races before.  Maybe he didn’t like the track?  Just didn’t feel like racing?  The jock didn’t urge him on at all.  They already had plenty of points so there was no reason to press the issue in case something was wrong and it certainly looked like something was wrong.  Maybe the owners are now simply trying to boost his breeding resume but I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt for now.  

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Apr-26

Irad drew some lines across some of those races as well.  Looks like two with jocks still TBD,     Javier has no mount but has never done well in the KD a 3rd at best I believe.  Trying to think what is out there,  I don't know who may be injured, don't see Santana with a mount, Paco,  G Saez, Victor, Calvin, just throwing out names who have ridden before...  I would like to see Bechizza  get a shot.  Tawny Port and Early Voting currently without mounts

Meanwhile, Zandon is moving down my list a couple spots (3 to 5/6) while he is moving up on everyone elses

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-26

Oldbettowin said...

I think sometimes you just have to draw a line thru a race.  CC was coming off a new top and was on a short turnaround.  He wasn’t really going that fast when he started backing up and probably would have won going away if he hadn’t stopped (see the final time).  He’s faced pressure in races before.  Maybe he didn’t like the track?  Just didn’t feel like racing?  The jock didn’t urge him on at all.  They already had plenty of points so there was no reason to press the issue in case something was wrong and it certainly looked like something was wrong.  Maybe the owners are now simply trying to boost his breeding resume but I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt for now.

I agree with this, I should have said I was being mildly sarcastic, too.   I will never judge any horse on ONE race.  They aren't machines.   I actually added him back in 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-27

Lasix Free Contenders. Never used Lasix in any race :
_____
IMO: They Should change the Rules to No Lasix in any race.
Stop these Trainers from racing in Lasix every other race when not
a sanctioned race. We Need Transparency for cappers. One might think
they are masking something and we just don't know.
Somebody Should ask Pletcher and Cox why do they do that
with Some of their crop and not others.
I don't like it when a Horse I really like races in a un sanction  race on lasix
I wonder Why? Is He a bleeder or is something else is going on.
E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 103/ 93 (103
-
Epicenter 21a IP 164  Louis Derby  9 3/16   Rosario  L free
23.67 47.65 11.99  36.16 54.38   102 by   87 90/106 (101
23.67 23.98 24.34 24.17 (3/16 18.22) Last Q 24.31
Zandon 4d  S       114  BG 9f      Prat       Lfree
24.87 49.30  13.75  38.06 50.35   98 by
24.87 24.43  24.45  24.31 12.29 lastQ  24.45  
-
White Abarrio 9e S  112 flor D. 9f, fast in middle  Gaffiolone   L free
24.18 47.66 10.99* 36.55 50.64   96 by    96 110/77 (96
24.18 23.48 23.33 25.56 14.09 Last Q 26.84
---
Mo Donegal 3g  S   112  Wood  9f  I Ortiz     L free
25.07 48.76 12.50 36.03 47.96    96 by
25.07 23.69 23.74 23.53 11.93  Last Q 23.67
--
Tiz The Bomb 3L BP 110  Jeff Ruby AW 9f  Hernandez  L free
23.96 47.78 11.58 35.89 48.60   94 by   86 93/105 (101
23.96 23.82 23.80 24.31 12.71 Last Q 24.87
--
Simplification 16g Is  74   Flor Derby  9f J Ortiz    L free
23.77 47.25 10.69 36.56 51.09   92 by  100 113/70 (93
23.77 23.48 23.44 25.87 14.53 Last Q 27.47
-
Smile Happy 6d S   70  BG  9f   Lanerie            L free
24.34 48.69 13.02 37.86 50.85  94 by
24.34 24.35 24.33 24.84 12.99  Last Q 25.41 
-----
Barber Road 4i  C       58   Ark. Derby 9f   R. Gutierrez  L free
23.42 47.27 11.83 38.04 50.97    88 by
23.42 23.85 24.56 26.21 12.93 last Q 26.04
--
Early Voting  9b    B        50  Wood  9f  J Ortiz   L free
23.86 47.75 11.59 35.63 47.98   96 by
23.86 24.89 23.84  24.04 12.35 last Q 24.37
-----  
Morello  6b  IP             50      Wood  9f
...[Message truncated]
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