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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 256286 views.
Msg 1770.950 deleted
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/22

Thanks, Very competitive group. did you notice  only 2 Colts wasn't within 4 lengths of winner in last 

That might be scary getting position into the first turn and any pause at the gate, might eliminate anybody

not breaking good no matter the running style.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/22

Not adjusted for the Post Positions and Speed Or lack of Numbers. Final time or Early, late gyrations.
Florida Derby has 4 in here with speed. speed horses last Q slow sometimes you can tell who is cheap speed,
25.39 or faster last Q is Historical key for most other types. If a front runner or up close Stalker last Q
is faster that 25.40 good bet for Win or ITM.
-

---------------6f raw time  8f Raw Time Last 1/8    Last Q late #(Bris)
------------                           ----------------------------------------------
SummerTomorrow 1.10.31     1.35.40      14.91     28.15  est            Adjusted for no runup, 57.65
Crown Pride          1.10.65     1.35.95      14.07     27.40  est.                      "                     57.10
Simplification        1.10.69     1.36.56      14.53     27.47   70
White Abarrio       1.10.99      1.36.55      14.09     26.84   77
Messier                1.11.07      1.35.86      13.05     25.45  102
Charge It             1,11.19      1.36.96      13.93     26.81   77
Cyberknife            1.11.23     1.37.24      13.18     26.19   86
Classic Causeway  1.11.29      retreat
Taiba                    1.11.37     1.36.06      12.40     24.75  109
Tawny Port            1.11.48     1.35.99      13.06     25.32   85 AW
Tiz The Bomb        1.11.58     1.35.89      12.71     24.87  105 AW
Early Voting          1.11.59      1.35.63     12.35     24.37   111
Zozos                   1.11.69      1.36.46     12.28*   24.62    98
Pioneer Of Medina 1.11.79      1.36.96     12.22 *  24.62     95
Barber Road          1.11.83     1.38.04     12.93     26.04     86
Epicenter              1.11.99     1.36.16     12.16*    24.31   106
Happy Jack           1.12.27     1.37.76     13.20      25.91     95
In Due Time          1.12.44     1.37.80     12.92      25.84     82
Mo Donegal          1.12.50      1.36.03     11.93     23.67    121
Morello                1.13.00       1.39.20       N/A        N/A     2 back
Smile Happy         1.13.02      1.37.86     12.99     25.41    102
Ethereal Road       1.13.43      1.39.07     13.59     26.41     82
Zandon                1.13.75      1.38.06      12.29    24.45    114
Un Ojo                 1.14.51      1.39.30    <12.51    25.02    N/A
...[Message truncated]
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Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

5/4/22

Hmmmm.  By my count there are four E/P types under 25.40 and a fifth missed the cut by 0.05.  
 

I’m trying to figure out which ones are going to be too close to the pace/get stuck in traffic/don’t like mud in their eye/hit the gate, etc.  :)

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/22

Yeah, Messier is a tough call to meet those standards, He is up close to the lead'

one of those Steve Romans energy models that would be nice right now.

Thanks for sharing that important thought to this,

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/22

also did you notice the last column has the Bris late number and messier has a triple digit 102.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/22

I have to add to this, the last 1/8 time historical time I use is 12.70 for carrying 126 pounds at 10f
check to see who qualifies for that, Sorry I missed that the 1st time. 7 qualify if I counted right.

--

Not adjusted for the Post Positions and Speed Or lack of Numbers. Final time or Early, late gyrations.
Florida Derby has 4 in here with speed. speed horses last Q slow sometimes you can tell who is cheap speed,
25.39 or faster last Q is Historical key for most other types. If a front runner or up close Stalker last Q
is faster that 25.40 good bet for Win or ITM.
-

---------------6f raw time  8f Raw Time Last 1/8    Last Q late #(Bris)
------------                           ----------------------------------------------
SummerTomorrow 1.10.31     1.35.40      14.91     28.15  est            Adjusted for no runup, 57.65
Crown Pride          1.10.65     1.35.95      14.07     27.40  est.                      "                     57.10
Simplification        1.10.69     1.36.56      14.53     27.47   70
White Abarrio       1.10.99      1.36.55      14.09     26.84   77
Messier                1.11.07      1.35.86      13.05     25.45  102
Charge It             1,11.19      1.36.96      13.93     26.81   77
Cyberknife            1.11.23     1.37.24      13.18     26.19   86
Classic Causeway  1.11.29      retreat
Taiba                    1.11.37     1.36.06      12.40     24.75  109
Tawny Port            1.11.48     1.35.99      13.06     25.32   85 AW
Tiz The Bomb        1.11.58     1.35.89      12.71     24.87  105 AW
Early Voting          1.11.59      1.35.63     12.35     24.37   111
Zozos                   1.11.69      1.36.46     12.28*   24.62    98
Pioneer Of Medina 1.11.79      1.36.96     12.22 *  24.62     95
Barber Road          1.11.83     1.38.04     12.93     26.04     86
Epicenter              1.11.99     1.36.16     12.16*    24.31   106
Happy Jack           1.12.27     1.37.76     13.20      25.91     95
In Due Time          1.12.44     1.37.80     12.92      25.84     82
Mo Donegal          1.12.50      1.36.03     11.93     23.67    121
Morello                1.13.00       1.39.20       N/A        N/A     2 back
Smile Happy         1.13.02      1.37.86     12.99     25.41    102
Ethereal Road       1.13.43      1.39.07     13.59     26.41     82
Zandon                1.13.75      1.38.06      12.29    24.45    114
...[Message truncated]
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Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

5/4/22

He’s also the only one with a triple-triple and he almost has two of them.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/4/22

Who is getting to the 8f call first ,adjusted from the Post Position Draw(This list isn't Adjusted from the PP's)
Anybody want to play that game ? I'm using this to use from the Post Position when I finalize the 1/8 pole Chart
---
Bris    Time
early   form
---      Early
---------------
N/A  126 SummerIsTomorrow 22.62 46.20 10.31  35.40 
N/A  116 Crown Pride             23.22 46.72  10.65  35.95    
100  116 Messier                   22.85 46.90  11.07 35.86
100  101 Simplification          23.77 47.25 10.69 36.56
100  121 Classic Causeway   23.67 47.24 11.29  N/A
96   114  Charge It               24.17 47.65 11.19 36.96
96   111 Taiba                     22.95 47.30 11.37 36.06           
96     98 White Abarrio        24.18 47.66 10.99 36.55
94   105 Cyberknife            22.91 46.94 11.23 37.24
90     85 Barber Road         23.42 47.27 11.83 38.04
90   112 Zozos                  23.27 47.35  11.69 36.46
89   102 Pioneer of Medina 23.47 47.45 11.79 36.96
87   116 Epicenter            23.67 47.65 11.99 36.16
86    81 Tiz the Bomb      23.96 47.78 11.58 35.89 AW
85   75 Mo Donegal        25.07 48.76 12.50 36.03
85   89 Smile Happy      24.34 48.69 13.02 37.86 
85   94 Tawny Port        24.36 48.73 12.97 38.90
85   85 Ethereal Road   24.56 49.00 13.43 39.07
83   93 Happy Jack    23.75 48.60 12.27 37.76
79   77 Zandon         24.87 49.30 13.75 38.06
78   55 Rich Strike 
78   69Rattle N Roll 
----
NA Summer Is Tomorrow 
NA Crown Pride
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