This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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You certainly know points leader is literally meaningless at this point....that's why Baffert owners aren't concerned about sacrificing the 10pt races.
I've never understood your "delta" signification. Sure, he could improve and sneak in, maybe even hit the board. Depends upon how healthy the better colts stay, how the inexperienced ones do in the preps, etc. He's still in my top 20 at the moment, I just don't think he's a futures bet. That's what I like to concentrate on. He's 25-1 and Smile is 20-1?!? In terms of value, no comparison.
But I'm much more interested in the colts yet to run in graded stakes, ones that I can get good bets on.
Delta horse has no skin in the future games. Dogs 'no play futures. Tough enough to get 20 runners to finish matching The Ticket construction
Delta is a comparative horse picked to compare all 3 yr Olds. And as they go on in pt races.
Arguably as the point leader going into February as #1 (tied but sports more cash) and picked months ago...he's spot on Delta to date.
In years past the Derby favs have won and even taken Triple Crowns. And had many-many points.
Those are horses that the one shot a year bettors have on top. Was even that easy for you and the Dog. Didn't even need my glasses for the small print on the DRF.
But, there are 19 other Derby gaters and a runner is needed to key under 2nd *toss 5 or 6 / all for 3rd. Then key that horse in 3rd putting the all in 2nd slot. For a thrifty ticket.
In 2017 the early Delta colt was Lookin at Lee. He squeezed, maybe squeaked into the KDy. Was really on the fence to get in. RAN 2nd. My ticket was 5 runners to win on top and included Lee 2nd and 3rd. Wish I had also wheeled one hard for key 2nd + 3rd.
Knicks Go was my Delta horse in his Breeders Cup. Ran 2nd to Baff favorite. I remember us conversing on race day. That card I just posted hamburger helpers who could board.
Also the Delta colt can be replaced along the way. And has been. Horse pickin' is Fungible. It is like the guy who says I handicapped for 2 weeks, got to the window, changed what I wanted to bet. And lost and my original selections were winners. He/she went off the Delta gathering info. Specific/numeric and anecdotally.
Yes, the Delta if in the Derby can even be a toss. Just as the favorite scratched week or day of roses and bourbon.
The Delta colt is Fungible. Even within the race.
After 15 KDY point races to date Pappycappie the Delta horse/ comparison horse is still the point leader and his Beyer kinda falls below nearly 10 runners, and consider there are 20 Derby stalls to come not too shabby.
Hoofnote: A Baffert runner in a Derby points race, yet ineligible to race in the Derby does not affect the final 20 count of points to become a Derby qualifier.
NEVER a winner from post-position 17. The last time gate 17 produced a horse that even finished in the top 5 was 2005.
Other factors - no longer
Bodemeister first crop Always Dreaming.
Colt with 7 Dossge won / 4 +/-
Never raced at 2 y o has won.
New starting gate now.
And the Baffert factor out of contention
Perhaps the draw will land Post 17 in top 4 needed..
For a general Over/Under not knowing the post draw:Go with Yes hit the board, in top 5.
Math only 5% chance #17.
Withers @ Big A.....for fun
Imaginary bet next 10 pt nine furlongs, weights....Weather conditions may even cancel racing..but would highly consider. * up to but not over.
OR Holly Bull. Same Saturday. Same as below
1. USE $100* any way WPS. One Horse selection. Minimum $20 in a slot
2. USE $24 for Exacta. Any
3. USE $60 for Tris. At .50 cent tickets
My early prediction of Kent D a Derby rider now has him a winter book long shot. I've given him more conditional chances than a 9/0 maiden.
In the I'll Have Another Derby his 3rd place was just not enough for window exchange. And he came out of that race with a personal issue.
It's a great life if you don't weaken.
Aquduct with fog today had 8th and 9th scratches to end up with small enough for no exacta, tri, super. And a W,P only..
Couldn't see to time race at run up.
Friday snow. Proly cancel?
Sat. Clear but a pulanta track. If they run and track chemistry gets Mother nature to turn her back
Two 30/1s and 60/1 found it to their liking.
My trainer instructions go wide then as fast as you can without grazing the outside rail.
Contest above for Holly Bull. Only.
Derby Point Race
Holly Bull - rain 7 PM, if before post Tiz the Bomb moves up. I wish I was in Florida now facing 2 months of winter.
Fortunately we have an informative Winter that makes it summer (song lyrics Nancy with the Laughing face) Hi.
Although Castellano is booting for under the radar connections, he's 'a hoping this one is his ticket to better days while performing out of recent injury..and Derby day mount. Yet he may switch to better if it presents itself on the first Saturday in May, yet the last day of that week.
One need see Tiz the Bomb run July 2nd at Elllis 4th race to know, even though tagged a winner and 2nd on greens, will run on dirt Saturday as an all terrain-er.
as above, to remention, Castellano rides Simplification. I can imagine when the silk maker got this one (Silk for Simpie) he said: "Hey Jake are they saying this 'is a lock!'
Up here near Buffalo we had 40 hours straight hours of the white stuff falling!
Blaming Phil on that note (6 more wks. of winter). I'm using the 5 / 6 / 8 in the Holy Bull...tri/box.
Non winners of post #17 in the derby, that curse has to end sometime. Odds in favor or against Dogs?