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KY Derby Futures   Triple Crown

Started 1/21/22 by Wintertrian; 6332 views.
In reply toRe: msg 14
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

1/23/22

2022 Future POOL 2 exacta Probables

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

1/23/22

Future 2 Payoff if it hits, $2 Exacta
---
#8 Giant game with 12 Make it big pays  $ 3708.80
#12 Make it big with 8 Giant game Pays  $ 4739.20
Good luck
Giant Game has 3 bullet works In January at GP small fields tho
bris gave him a 99 in his last race behind Corniche and Pappacap
  • Edited January 23, 2022 11:02 pm  by  smartyslew
PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

1/24/22

I looked over them briefly, Smile Happy was the only one I was considering.  Was 6-1 when I looked, so not great and not enough to bet this far out.   I was going to do exacta with him but forgot.   I bet Rattl n Roll, in Nov, but did not see any works on him on sheet so passed this time.  Of course these days he could just come out for a 100-150 race and go right to KD with 1/2 races.

Looks like final odds went back up to 8-1, exacta 70 with field, no loss, better to wait to see if he qualifies and gets in.   Smile Happys dam is a throw back with all those lines in the dam and tailing to Funny Cides line in the five gen ped.  RFed to a couple solid full brothers

Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

1/24/22

Me thinks the price is right...

Zilch....or...

A NEW CAR...

  • Edited January 24, 2022 2:07 pm  by  Plus2lbs
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

1/24/22

LOL,

Or try a $2  #22 White Abarrio (Tapit/Into Mischief) / # 9 High Oak *( API/ Mr P) pays  $15,165.40

stuck_out_tongue_winking_eyefor a higher price Car.   * Sire lines

  • Edited January 24, 2022 2:56 pm  by  smartyslew
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

1/24/22

I really can't understand why any serious futures bettor would bet in these pools; the prices are so bad!  Smile Happy at 8-1?!?  He's been bet down to 16-1 at WH and Circa, which is still too low (and he's my favorite colt right now), and that's double Pool #2.

There may be some value in the "all others", especially since that category has the unusual attribute of including all the Baffert colts.  An interesting proposition, as I do like Corniche, New Grange, Doppelganger, and Wharton, at least thus far

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

1/24/22

One angle in January is to bet a horse that doesn't make the  field of 24 futures 

at the sights you referenced , 5 to 8 out of this pool is a guesstimate to make the field

Pool 2 has been reported hitting the most exactas in the Derby, one might take a shot

at that here. 9 entrants boxed costs $ 72 @ $1  that's cheaper then  what many lay down

on one horse in Vegas or Europe. $144 for $2 box or box more than 9.

or wheel one you like with all for $ 2 costs $46 bucks. lots of strategy's. $5 Wheel costs $ 115.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

1/24/22

I do agree.....there could be some definite value in some exacta betting, certainly, as you have noted.

As regards the prices at Circa and WH, I have found the route to add new horses, so there is actually no instance of a horse not being available.

If you see a true UTR horse, do post and I'll try to get a price up :)

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

1/24/22

Main reason is  those without access to LV pools.    I don't think any of the sports betting places carry those  do they?  I don't think IN does which is closest to me, so CD is all I can bet.  I have not bet much on them the last three years.  None last year, bet one in Jan 2020 then KD got canned, the horse I bet on ended up winning the Met Mile.

For the price differences, Twinspires is a parimutuel pool, whereas LV is straight bet they do not have to payout all the money they make, they can set prices to entice more betting.  Possible to make a killing or take a bath like in 2012.

  • Edited January 24, 2022 9:41 pm  by  PISTOL9
DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

1/25/22

The Vegas casinos can 'layoff their handles with each other, as well, to insure a profit from their composite handles.

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