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KY Derby Futures   Triple Crown

Started 1/21/22 by Wintertrian; 6194 views.
PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

1/24/22

I looked over them briefly, Smile Happy was the only one I was considering.  Was 6-1 when I looked, so not great and not enough to bet this far out.   I was going to do exacta with him but forgot.   I bet Rattl n Roll, in Nov, but did not see any works on him on sheet so passed this time.  Of course these days he could just come out for a 100-150 race and go right to KD with 1/2 races.

Looks like final odds went back up to 8-1, exacta 70 with field, no loss, better to wait to see if he qualifies and gets in.   Smile Happys dam is a throw back with all those lines in the dam and tailing to Funny Cides line in the five gen ped.  RFed to a couple solid full brothers

Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

1/24/22

Me thinks the price is right...

Zilch....or...

A NEW CAR...

  • Edited January 24, 2022 2:07 pm  by  Plus2lbs
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

1/24/22

LOL,

Or try a $2  #22 White Abarrio (Tapit/Into Mischief) / # 9 High Oak *( API/ Mr P) pays  $15,165.40

stuck_out_tongue_winking_eyefor a higher price Car.   * Sire lines

  • Edited January 24, 2022 2:56 pm  by  smartyslew
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

1/24/22

I really can't understand why any serious futures bettor would bet in these pools; the prices are so bad!  Smile Happy at 8-1?!?  He's been bet down to 16-1 at WH and Circa, which is still too low (and he's my favorite colt right now), and that's double Pool #2.

There may be some value in the "all others", especially since that category has the unusual attribute of including all the Baffert colts.  An interesting proposition, as I do like Corniche, New Grange, Doppelganger, and Wharton, at least thus far

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

1/24/22

One angle in January is to bet a horse that doesn't make the  field of 24 futures 

at the sights you referenced , 5 to 8 out of this pool is a guesstimate to make the field

Pool 2 has been reported hitting the most exactas in the Derby, one might take a shot

at that here. 9 entrants boxed costs $ 72 @ $1  that's cheaper then  what many lay down

on one horse in Vegas or Europe. $144 for $2 box or box more than 9.

or wheel one you like with all for $ 2 costs $46 bucks. lots of strategy's. $5 Wheel costs $ 115.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

1/24/22

I do agree.....there could be some definite value in some exacta betting, certainly, as you have noted.

As regards the prices at Circa and WH, I have found the route to add new horses, so there is actually no instance of a horse not being available.

If you see a true UTR horse, do post and I'll try to get a price up :)

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

1/24/22

Main reason is  those without access to LV pools.    I don't think any of the sports betting places carry those  do they?  I don't think IN does which is closest to me, so CD is all I can bet.  I have not bet much on them the last three years.  None last year, bet one in Jan 2020 then KD got canned, the horse I bet on ended up winning the Met Mile.

For the price differences, Twinspires is a parimutuel pool, whereas LV is straight bet they do not have to payout all the money they make, they can set prices to entice more betting.  Possible to make a killing or take a bath like in 2012.

  • Edited January 24, 2022 9:41 pm  by  PISTOL9
DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

1/25/22

The Vegas casinos can 'layoff their handles with each other, as well, to insure a profit from their composite handles.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

1/25/22

Trust me, there is no "laying off" with Derby futures in Vegas.  There are only two entities offering it right now, Circa and WH.  Their take is literally nothing......maybe 2-300K by the Derby.  More than that is wagered each pool in the parimutuel field. 

That's their volume....I remember talking with the main futures developer, Johnny Avello, past head of Wynn Sports, presently with DraftKings.  His best season was just under 400K, and of course they had plenty to pay out.  They hope to win a little, but they are a happy with a little risk.  A single NFL game is more of a risk than the entire Derby future pool

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

1/25/22

All good points.....as far as I know, you are unable to bet these futures outside of NV, though I could be wrong, as sports betting continues to proliferate.  If WH is licensed in MI, for example, then they certainly will offer the same opportunity for a bet on the Derby.

Yes, Twinspires must pay out everything they take in, minus their vig (22%) which is not insignificant, in Vegas you're really playing more directly with other bettors and the risk management team of the casino interests offering the bets.

Thus, Circa could actually lose $$$ due to sharp bettors jumping in at the right time, whereas Twinspires will not.  For that we get better prices.....some bettors will go to NV just to make some serious bets :)

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