This will be an interesting (possibly contentious) topic.  

Anyone definitely tossing horses for the win spot?  Extra points for tossing what will be a lower odds horse.  (Cuz it's easy to toss a longshot.)

Please give your reasoning, too. 

My lower odds (i.e. not longshots of 20-1+) tosses for the win (not knowing post position or weather yet, if a horse is a superior mudder my thoughts might change if slop)  This list does not exlude them from exotics wagers/board hit, only the WIN spot.

Zandon:    With his mare index of 1.13, winning would be a history breaker. Despite breaking in air, he still couldn't get it done against Epicenter and Smile Happy in the Risen Star and his competition in the prep he won was much inferior to that in the Risen Star.  Possible bottom of superfecta for me.   Long shots Tawny Port and Pioneer of Medina (if he gets the gate) would be far better wagers and at much higher odds to include
Cyberknife:  Final Q and Final 3/8 just don't measure up. He does not have the late kick to get it done for the win.   He will flatten out in the stretch like he did in the Lecomte  
Taiba:   no foundation, and only faced 11 competitors total in his entire life.  I will probably even toss him from my superfecta.  This is another Rock Your World.
Early Voting:   1 chef in 4 generations leading to 4 dosage points.  Combined w/fact that Wood and Withers runners don't have a great record in the derby.  No thanks. (ditto for Un Ojo.  Time to use him was in the Rebel Stakes.) )

 

Who was the last derby winner who won their final 9F prep in 1:50+?

Orb, 1:50.4...2013 Florida Derby

Thanks. That means tossing White Abarrio and Cyberknife for me. And include Tiz The Turfer as well.

Ya know, I have been thinking about Tiz lately, wondering if the track is off, mightn't he move up considerably?  I know "they" say that a great horse can run on any surface....perhaps that's true.......but also worthy of note is how many non-great horses move up dramatically on an off track.  Wondering if Tiz is that high-odds horse that surprises on a wet track?

Any thoughts on CD's surface when it is wet?  Does it more resemble the footing of turf or synthetic?

Depends how wet. It gets firm to a certain extent when the Churchill track is wet, kind of like running along the beach on the wet sand near the water.

Counter-intuitive Overanalizing up the rail on a sunny day wet cuppa track.

MONTY HALL factor of 3. Derby factor of 20.

https://youtu.be/4Lb-6rxZxx0

As of right now....i have 8 for usage in my verticals or 40% of the field. Going to whittle it down to 4 in the next 2 weeks for a decent size super/box.

Yep i did toss the 3 you mentioned above for various reasons.

I'm waiting for the draw then I will do four $1 superfectas 

abc/abc/abc/defghijklm

abc/abc/defghijklm/abc

abc/defghijklm/abc/abc

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a - Epicenter

b- Messier

c - ???

Assume straight, I would put Crown in for third.