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Toss for the WIN spot   Triple Crown

Started 4/22/22 by Wintertrian; 10206 views.
In reply toRe: msg 31
PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

4/25/22

As of right now, I am only considering two for the W spot depending on works, post and field.  So 18 others is too many to go over.

  • Edited April 25, 2022 12:07 pm  by  PISTOL9
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/26/22

Oldbettowin said...

I love Early Voting but it looks like they might wait for the Preakness.  If they could get him to slow down just a little….

The fact that they've been so-so about him running made me lose a bit of faith.  I really don't know what to think now.  

 

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

4/27/22

It’s going to be interesting if EV and CC both stay in, giving the race some quality speed, something it hasn’t had much of in recent years.  We’re all so used to the merry go round with a high E/P type winning….

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/27/22

Oldbettowin said...

It’s going to be interesting if EV and CC both stay in, giving the race some quality speed, something it hasn’t had much of in recent years.  We’re all so used to the merry go round with a high E/P type winning….

Indeed!   I can tell you that I am even considering adding Tiz to my picks if he's 30-1 or more.  The KY Derby is all about making a big score AFAIC.  Any race, any day of the week, is easy to wager the 5/2, 2-1, 9/2 and the 5-1 in a superfecta.  That isn't much of a score. 

So i hope they do stay in.   I think EV will have pretty good odds? If he drops out I will be happy to see Pioneer of Medina get in.  And would love to see Barber Road hit the board....they are sticking with Reylu, they are a very loyal type of connections, down to earth, not going to toss their rider for some "big name", and trainer John Ortiz is a truly nice guy.  He was a hot walker for Bill Mott. 

Actually, at the rate people are tossing Simplification I may not have to bother with Tiz.  :) 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/27/22

RAESFAN said...

So far it's Summer Is Tomorrow. Too much sprinter/miler pedigree.

For sure. Hope he sticks around for the Preakness though.  

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

4/27/22

Remember the year Orb won?  Palace Malice went out and ran an insane first half mile.  I don't think we'll see anything like that but you never know!

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

4/27/22

Was this you?

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

First I must give credit to Winter for this.  I first heard it from her about 2 years ago on this forum.  If a horse runs it's highest speed figure at 1 1/16 vs 1 1/8 as a 3YO it seldom hits the trifecta.  I have only tracked this for the last 2 years so obviously it is a very small sample however it has held true for both those years.  Last year it allowed me to eliminate some good horses (cuz you can't bet em all) like Gunnevera, McCraken, Tapwrit and more.

This year the (toss) list includes

Quip

Flameaway

Solomini

Bravazo

Promises Fulfilled

Firenze Fire (Mile not 1 1/16)

Combatant

Free Drop Billy (but severely blocked in his 1 1/8 which is always tough to deal with)

Good Magic ran the same so close

I am using the Brisnet not the Beyer because that is all I have to work with.  Anyway thank you Winter and let's see if it holds true again this year.

North

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

For last year it would have eliminated:

Hot Rod Charlie - BCJuv 100, but never ran 9 panels, he won at 9.5 with a figure of 96; would winning at 9.5 be an exception?

Concert Tour - 8.5 and 9 matched at 95

Caddo River

Highly Motivated matched at 102 three times in a row

Dynamic One

Crowded Trade

Hidden Stash

Hozier

Keepmeinmind

Did I do this right?

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/PPs_20210417_Derby.pdf

In reply toRe: msg 38
sovereign1

From: sovereign1

4/27/22

If this holds, then this year's elimination would include:

White Abarrio

Cyberknife

Simplification

Barber Road

Un Ojo

Charge It

Ethereal Road

Rattle N Roll

Maybe this angle doesn't pick winners, but it might help whittle down the field for exotics.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

4/27/22

That's really interesting.  White Abarrio is one of the four that have a high enough racingpost rating to win, along with Taiba, Messier, and Zandon.  This would seem to cut it to three.

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

4/27/22

Taiba missed a work. Is that concerning, especially for a horse that is so lightly raced?

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