Oldbettowin said...

It’s going to be interesting if EV and CC both stay in, giving the race some quality speed, something it hasn’t had much of in recent years.  We’re all so used to the merry go round with a high E/P type winning….

Indeed!   I can tell you that I am even considering adding Tiz to my picks if he's 30-1 or more.  The KY Derby is all about making a big score AFAIC.  Any race, any day of the week, is easy to wager the 5/2, 2-1, 9/2 and the 5-1 in a superfecta.  That isn't much of a score. 

So i hope they do stay in.   I think EV will have pretty good odds? If he drops out I will be happy to see Pioneer of Medina get in.  And would love to see Barber Road hit the board....they are sticking with Reylu, they are a very loyal type of connections, down to earth, not going to toss their rider for some "big name", and trainer John Ortiz is a truly nice guy.  He was a hot walker for Bill Mott. 

Actually, at the rate people are tossing Simplification I may not have to bother with Tiz.  :) 

RAESFAN said...

So far it's Summer Is Tomorrow. Too much sprinter/miler pedigree.

For sure. Hope he sticks around for the Preakness though.  

Remember the year Orb won?  Palace Malice went out and ran an insane first half mile.  I don't think we'll see anything like that but you never know!

Was this you?

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First I must give credit to Winter for this.  I first heard it from her about 2 years ago on this forum.  If a horse runs it's highest speed figure at 1 1/16 vs 1 1/8 as a 3YO it seldom hits the trifecta.  I have only tracked this for the last 2 years so obviously it is a very small sample however it has held true for both those years.  Last year it allowed me to eliminate some good horses (cuz you can't bet em all) like Gunnevera, McCraken, Tapwrit and more.

This year the (toss) list includes

Quip

Flameaway

Solomini

Bravazo

Promises Fulfilled

Firenze Fire (Mile not 1 1/16)

Combatant

Free Drop Billy (but severely blocked in his 1 1/8 which is always tough to deal with)

Good Magic ran the same so close

I am using the Brisnet not the Beyer because that is all I have to work with.  Anyway thank you Winter and let's see if it holds true again this year.

North

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For last year it would have eliminated:

Hot Rod Charlie - BCJuv 100, but never ran 9 panels, he won at 9.5 with a figure of 96; would winning at 9.5 be an exception?

Concert Tour - 8.5 and 9 matched at 95

Caddo River

Highly Motivated matched at 102 three times in a row

Dynamic One

Crowded Trade

Hidden Stash

Hozier

Keepmeinmind

Did I do this right?

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/PPs_20210417_Derby.pdf

If this holds, then this year's elimination would include:

White Abarrio

Cyberknife

Simplification

Barber Road

Un Ojo

Charge It

Ethereal Road

Rattle N Roll

Maybe this angle doesn't pick winners, but it might help whittle down the field for exotics.

That's really interesting.  White Abarrio is one of the four that have a high enough racingpost rating to win, along with Taiba, Messier, and Zandon.  This would seem to cut it to three.

Taiba missed a work. Is that concerning, especially for a horse that is so lightly raced?

Who knows with the Baffert horses.  I’m sure they’ll get a good blow in him this weekend but that’s when most of them are just leisurely galloping.

sovereign1 said...

Was this you?

Yes, but I never tracked it for potentcy. 

That year North64 decided to "revive it" and he and I were trying to come up with a new "untested angle" again. 

Obviously it worked somewhat in 2018 exept good magic ran 2nd, and again didn't totally work in 2020, though Hot Rod Charlie WAS listed as an "exception/questionable" to be on the list and ended up running 3rd ....so I will include 2020 as a year that it "worked somewhat"?

THanks for fleshing out the ones for this year.  Will be interesting to track it as an angle.  So far it's been "off" and does not really work.   Unless you use it maybe to eliminate horses you were so-so about to begin with?

 

 

Oldbettowin said...

Who knows with the Baffert horses.

Yes, Baffert, who was not supposed to be in the KY Derby at all. 

 
They just took the sign down in the barn with his name on it.  That's ALL.  
Horses are still standing in the same stalls, getting the same feed, same meds, etc.